Opinion polling for the 2026 Senedd election
In the run-up to the 2026 Senedd election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Senedd election, held on 6 May 2021, to the next election, to be held on 7 May 2026.
It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which increases the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopts a party-list voting system, reduces the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortens its term from five years to four.[1][2] However the 23 October 2025 Caerphilly by-election where 33,689 votes were cast used first-past-the-post voting.
Opinion polling
Polling using the 2026 electoral system
For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.[3][4]
Considering the polls from less than one year before the election, there have been 12 polls. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have both led in 5 and were tied in one of them, and Labour has led in 1. Of the polls with a sample size of 1,000 people or more, there have been 5, with Plaid leading in 4 of them, with Reform UK leading in 1.
Sample size below 1,000.[a]
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb – 3 March 2026 | More in Common | N/A | 851 | 20% | 10% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 26% | 1% | Tie |
| 30 Jan – 10 Feb 2026 | More in Common | N/A | 806 | 20% | 13% | 24% | 5% | 6% | 31% | 1% | 7 |
| 19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 486 | 20% | 10% | 29% | 7% | 5% | 27% | 1% | 2 |
| 5 – 12 Jan 2026 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 1,220 | 10% | 10% | 37% | 13% | 5% | 23% | 2% | 14 |
| 16 Dec 2025 – 4 Jan 2026 | FindOutNow | N/A | 1,503 | 12% | 12% | 30% | 9% | 7% | 29% | 2% | 1 |
| 28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025 | YouGov | Cardiff University | 1,891 | 10% | 10% | 33% | 9% | 6% | 30% | 2% | 3 |
| 10–30 Nov 2025 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 505 | 21% | 12% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 27% | 1% | 1 |
| 23 Oct 2025 | 2025 Caerphilly by-election, Plaid Cymru gain from Labour | ||||||||||
| 22 Sep – 12 Oct 2025 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 533 | 23% | 11% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 30% | 2% | 7 |
| 4–10 Sep 2025 | YouGov | Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 1,232 | 14% | 11% | 30% | 6% | 6% | 29% | 4% | 1 |
| 18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 400 | 27% | 13% | 21% | 6% | 5% | 25% | 2% | 2 |
| 18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025 | More in Common | Sky News | 883 | 23% | 10% | 26% | 4% | 7% | 28% | 2% | 2 |
| 5–16 Jun 2025 | FindOutNow | N/A | 2,101 | 18% | 11% | 27% | 7% | 7% | 29% | 1% | 2 |
| 23–30 Apr 2025 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 1,265 | 18% | 13% | 30% | 5% | 7% | 25% | 2% | 5 |
| 10 Mar – 3 Apr 2025 | Survation | N/A | 809 | 27% | 15% | 24% | 5% | 5% | 24% | 1% | 3 |
| 3–23 Mar 2025 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 1,000 | 27% | 16% | 24% | 5% | 4% | 23% | 1% | 3 |
| 25–29 Nov 2024 | YouGov[6] | Barn Cymru | 1,121 | 23% | 19% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 23% | 1% | 1 |
| 4–24 Nov 2024 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 500 | 27% | 18% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 24% | 2% | 3 |
| 18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 | Survation[s 1] | Reform UK | 2,006 | 29% | 18% | 20% | 7% | 7% | 19% | 1% | 9 |
| 24 Jul – 6 Aug 2024 | Eluned Morgan is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales[7] | ||||||||||
| 5–18 Jul 2024 | Welsh Election Study | N/A | 2,565 | 25% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 8%
AWA on 7% Other on 1% |
1 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 United Kingdom general election | ||||||||||
| 27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,072 | 27% | 18% | 23% | 5% | 6% | 18% | 3% | 4 |
| 5–7 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 960 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 2%
AWA on 2% Other on 0% |
14 |
| 30 May – 3 Jun 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,066 | 30% | 19% | 23% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 7 |
| 18–19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 900 | 37% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 10% | 5%
AWA on 5% Other on 0% |
17 |
| 8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | ||||||||||
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election (regional)[8] | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 8.2% | 11.1 | |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election (constituency)[8] | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 13.8 | |
Past opinion polling
The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.
Regional vote
Sample size below 1,000.[a]
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | AWA | UKIP | Reform | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | ||||||||||||
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 33% | 18% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 5% | – | 12% | 1% | 14 |
| 23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 32% | 16% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 6% | – | 11% | 1% | 14 |
| 16–20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales[9] | ||||||||||||
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 29% | 16% | 25% | 4% | 8% | 7% | – | 10% | 1% | 4 |
| 24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 34% | 19% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 6% | – | 7% | 1% | 13 |
| 10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 28% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 8% | 4% | – | 7% | 1% | 4 |
| 12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 32% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 5% | – | 7% | 1% | 11 |
| 14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 5% | 7% | – | 8% | 0% | 10 |
| 16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 35% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 2% | – | 5% | 1% | 14 |
| 1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 34% | 16% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 14 |
| 13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 31% | 19% | 22% | 6% | 10% | – | – | 10% | 3% | 9 |
| 14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 33% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 10% | – | – | 6% | 4% | 13 |
| 17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 30% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 9% | – | – | 8% | 4% | 8 |
| 16 Jun 2023 | Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid Cymru | ||||||||||||
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 36% | 16% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 18 |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 30% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 10% | – | – | 8% | 4% | 6 |
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 32% | 22% | 23% | 7% | 8% | – | – | 7% | 2% | 9 |
| 3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 39% | 18% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 6% | – | 6% | 2% | 19 |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 38% | 16% | 23% | 5% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 2%
Gwlad 1% Other 1% |
15 |
| 20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 37% | 18% | 21% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 16 |
| 12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 2%
Gwlad 1% Other 1% |
7 |
| 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 34% | 23% | 20% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 2%
Gwlad 1% Other 1% |
11 |
| 13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 35% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 13 |
| 13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 33% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 7 |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election[8] | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 11.1 | |
By section
| Date conducted |
Pollster | Client | Subsection | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2024 | Beaufort Research[10] | Nation.Cymru | South West Wales and the Valleys | 1000 (500) | 28 | 13 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Cardiff and South East Wales | 34 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 11 | ||||
| North and Mid Wales | 21 | 18 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 24 | Tie | ||||
| Male voters | 28 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 1 | ||||
| Female voters | 27 | 15 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 1 | ||||
| Aged 16-34 | 37 | 9 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 16 | ||||
| Aged 34-54 | 32 | 15 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 11 | ||||
| Aged over 55 | 21 | 22 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 7 | ||||
| ABC1 | 28 | 23 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 5 | ||||
| C2DE | 26 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 8 | ||||
| Welsh speakers | 24 | 16 | 31 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 7 | ||||
| Non-Welsh speakers | 29 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 3 |
Constituency vote
Sample size below 1,000.[a]
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | AWA | Green | Reform | Other | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | ||||||||||||
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 37% | 21% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 0% | 15 | |
| 23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 36% | 21% | 21% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 15 | |
| 16–20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales[9] | ||||||||||||
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 34% | 21% | 19% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 13% | 0% | 13 | |
| 24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 39% | 25% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 14 | |
| 10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 41% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 19 | |
| 12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 40% | 23% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 0% | 17 | |
| 14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 37% | 27% | 18% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 10 | |
| 16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 39% | 27% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 12 | |
| 1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 41% | 18% | 19% | 6% | – | 4% | 8% | 7% | 22 | |
| 13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 37% | 21% | 20% | 6% | – | 3% | 9% | 4% | 16 | |
| 14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 42% | 22% | 16% | 6% | – | 3% | 7% | 3% | 20 | |
| 17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 36% | 22% | 19% | 7% | – | 3% | 10% | 3% | 14 | |
| 16 Jun 2023 | Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid Cymru | ||||||||||||
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 40% | 18% | 17% | 7% | – | 5% | 8% | 4% | 22 | |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 38% | 23% | 20% | 7% | – | 3% | 7% | 2% | 15 | |
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 41% | 21% | 20% | 5% | – | 4% | 8% | 2% | 20 | |
| 3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 43% | 18% | 20% | 4% | – | 4% | 9% | 1% | 23 | |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 44% | 17% | 20% | 6% | – | 3% | 7% | 4% | 24 | |
| 20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 40% | 20% | 22% | 6% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 18 | |
| 12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 37% | 24% | 21% | 6% | – | 5% | 5% | 3% | 13 | |
| 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 38% | 24% | 21% | 6% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 14 | |
| 13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 40% | 23% | 17% | 4% | – | 5% | 7% | 4% | 17 | |
| 13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 37% | 27% | 19% | 5% | – | 4% | 5% | 5% | 10 | |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election[8] | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 13.8 | ||
Seat projections
Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.
| Organisation | Last date | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Others | Majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaufort Research | 19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026 | 23 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | Hung (Plaid Cymru −14) |
| Election Maps UK | 14 Jan 2026 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 27 | 0 | Hung (Plaid Cymru −5) |
| YouGov | 5 – 12 Jan 2026 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 11 | 3 | 23 | 0 | Hung (Plaid Cymru −4) |
| Election Maps UK | 7 Jan 2026 | 11 | 8 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 0 | Hung (Plaid Cymru −10) |
| YouGov | 28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025 | 8 | 6 | 39 | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0 | Hung (Plaid Cymru −10) |
| Election Maps UK | 17 December 2025 | 13 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 34 | 0 | Hung (Plaid Cymru −11) |
| Election Maps UK | 23 October 2025 | 20 | 8 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 0 | Hung (Reform −13) |
| Cavendish Cymru/NationCymru–Beaufort | 21 October 2025 | 24 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 0 | Hung (Reform −12) |
| 2021 election | 6 May 2021 | 30 | 16 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Hung (Labour −1, minority government) |
See also
- List of political parties in Wales
- Opinion polling on Welsh independence
- Polling in Wales for 2024 United Kingdom general election
- Polling in Wales for the next United Kingdom general election
Notes
- ^ a b c The British Polling Council states that a sample size of at least 1,000 is the "established norm" for any poll in Great Britain. However, there is no "minimum" acceptable sample size.[5]
- ^ Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.
References
- ^ Mansfield, Mark (8 May 2024). "MSs approve Senedd reform bill". Nation.Cymru.
- ^ Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (8 May 2024). "Senedd expansion plans get go-ahead in Cardiff Bay vote". BBC Wales.
- ^ "Senedd expansion plans get go-ahead in Cardiff Bay vote". BBC News. 8 May 2024. Retrieved 8 December 2025.
- ^ "2026 Review: Final Determinations | DBCC". www.dbcc.gov.wales. 11 March 2025. Retrieved 8 December 2025.
- ^ "FAQs About Polling". British Polling Council.
- ^ "Plaid Cymru leads new Senedd poll with Conservatives in 4th place". Nation.Cymru. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
- ^ Allen, Briony (6 August 2024). "Welsh Labour leadership: How Eluned Morgan was selected as first minister of Wales". Institute for Government. Retrieved 3 March 2025.
- ^ a b c d Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
- ^ a b Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (19 March 2024). "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. Retrieved 30 March 2024.
- ^ Mansfield, Mark (18 December 2024). "New Senedd election poll puts Labour in the lead - with Reform snapping at their heels". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 10 March 2025.