Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies (2010–2015)

Prior to the 2015 general election, various polling organisations conducted opinion polling in specific constituencies. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article. However, most opinion polling covers Great Britain, where the results are published in this article here.

Opinion polls were conducted gradually from the months after the previous general election held on 6 May 2010, and increased in frequency before the general election which took place on 7 May 2015. Though most opinion polls published are for general election voting intention, some polls shown are for voting intention in separate by-elections.

Polls of individual constituencies are expensive compared to national polling and were previously an infrequent practice in the UK. However, a large number of individual constituency polls were carried out in this period, most commissioned from independent polling providers by Michael Ashcroft, a Conservative peer and sponsor. In addition to polls listed in this article, other polling of constituencies has been carried out in private, often by political parties.[1]

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system true marginal seats are, by definition, decisive as to the election outcome.[2]

Constituency polls

England

Amber Valley

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Con Lab LD BNP UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 44.0% 34.8% 3.0% – 15.9% 2.4% – 9.2
3–12 Jul 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 34% 35% 4% – 23% 3% 2% 1
14–20 Apr 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 29% 41% 6% – 20% 2% 2% 12
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.6% 37.4% 14.4% 7.0% 2.0% – 0.6% 1.2

Bedford

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 42.6% 40.2% 4.2% 9.6% 3.1% 0.3% 2.4
23–30 Jul 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 28% 38% 14% 15% 3% 2% 10
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.9% 35.9% 19.9% 2.5% 0.9% 2.0% 3.0

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size LD Lab Con BNP Grn UKIP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 34.3% 43.1% 11.8% – 3.9% 6.3% 0.5% 8.7
3–13 Sep 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 36% 35% 14% – 5% 9% 2% 1
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 48.4% 29.2% 17.1% 3.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 19.1

Berwick-upon-Tweed

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size LD Con Lab UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 28.9% 41.1% 14.9% 11.2% 3.7% 0.2% 12.2
21–28 Aug 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 30% 33% 16% 17% 3% 1% 3
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 43.7% 36.7% 13.2% 3.2% – 3.2% 7

Birmingham Edgbaston

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 44.8% 38.3% 2.9% 10.1% 3.3% 3.5% 6.5
31 Jul – 11 Aug 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,001 48% 29% 3% 12% 5% 1% 19
12–18 May 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 44% 33% 5% 13% 4% 1% 11
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 40.6% 37.6% 15.4% 1.8% 1.1% 3.6% 3.0

Birmingham Yardley

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size LD Lab Con UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 25.6% 41.6% 14.0% 16.1% 1.7% 1.0% 16.0
27–31 Oct 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 34% 31% 12% 19% 2% 1% 3
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 39.6% 32.2% 19.2% 2.9% – – 7.3

Blackpool North and Cleveleys

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 44.4% 36.0% 2.4% 14.8% 2.3% 0.1% 8.5
30 Mar – 4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 42% 37% 3% 15% 2% 1% 5
13–18 Oct 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 35% 32% 5% 24% 3% 1% 3
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 41.8% 36.5% 13.3% 4.1% – 4.3% 5.3

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Con LD UKIP Lab Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 51.3% 9.0% 13.8% 21.7% 4.1% 29.6
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation Alan Bown 508 37% 11% 20% 27% 5% 10
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 51.4% 23.5% 14.0% 6.5% 4.5% 27.9

Bolton West

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 39.0% 40.6% 4.0% 15.3% – 1.1% 1.6
23–31 Jul 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 40% 27% 8% 21% 2% 2% 13
21–27 Apr 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,001 41% 28% 10% 17% 2% 1% 13
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.5% 38.3% 17.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2

Boston and Skegness

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP BNP Grn IFE Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 43.8% 16.5% 2.3% 33.8% 0.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 10.0
26 Jan – 5 Feb 2015 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 38% 17% 5% 35% – 3% – 2% 3
5–9 Sep 2014 Survation Alan Bown 342 26.2% 20.8% 2.0% 45.5% 1.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.4% 19.3
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 49.4% 20.6% 14.8% 9.5% 5.3% – – 0.4% 28.8

Bradford East

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size LD Lab Con BNP UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 29.3% 46.6% 11.3% – 9.9% 2.1% 0.5% 17.1
1–21 Jun 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 23% 45% 12% – 15% 2% 3% 22
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 33.7% 32.8% 26.8% 4.6% – – 2.0% 0.9

Brent Central

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size LD Lab Con Grn UKIP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 8.4% 62.1% 20.3% 4.1% 3.9% 1.2% 41.8
11–22 Jun 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,001 19% 54% 13% 5% 7% 1% 35
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 44.2% 41.2% 11.2% 1.5% – 2% 3.0

Brentford and Isleworth

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Grn Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 42.9% 43.8% 4.0% 5.6% 3.7% – 0.9
17–26 Sep 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,001 32% 45% 10% 7% 4% 1% 13
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 37.2% 33.6% 23.7% 1.6% 1.5% 2.4% 3.6

Brighton Kemptown

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Con Lab LD Grn UKIP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 40.7% 39.2% 3.0% 7.0% 9.8% 0.4% 1.5
11–21 Sep 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 33% 37% 6% 10% 13% 1% 4
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.0% 34.9% 18.0% 5.5% 3.2% 0.5% 3.1

Brighton Pavilion

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample size Grn Lab Con LD UKIP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 41.8% 27.3% 22.8% 2.8% 5.0% 0.4% 14.6
11–20 Nov 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,001 38% 28% 21% 5% 8% 1% 10
5–12 Jun 2014 Ashcroft N/A 1,000 32% 33% 18% 5% 9% 2% 1
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 31.3% 28.9% 23.7% 13.8% 1.8% 0.4% 2.4

Bristol North West

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
17–23 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,005 34% 43% 8% 8% 6% 0% 9%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 25.9% 38.0% 32.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1.3% 5.5%

Bristol West

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 35.7% 15.2% 18.8% 3.0% 26.8% 0.4% 8.8%
17–23 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 38% 14% 20% 2% 25% 1% 13%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 27.5% 18.4% 48.0% 1.2% 3.8% 1.1% 20.5%

Broxtowe

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
26 Jun – 4 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 30% 39% 7% 18% 4% 1% 1% 9%
8–13 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 30% 44% 10% 13% 1% 1% 1% 14%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 39.0% 38.3% 16.9% 2.3% 0.8% 2.7% – 0.7%

Burnley

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
27–30 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 11% 38% 23% 25% 2% 1% 1% 13%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 16.6% 31.3% 35.7% 2.2% – 9.0% 5.2% 4.3%

Bury North

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2–14 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,004 32% 41% 5% 20% 2% 1% 9%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 40.2% 35.2% 17% 2.9% - 4.8% 5%

Camborne and Redruth

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green MK OMRLP Others Lead
24–26 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 37% 24% 13% 14% 8% – – 3% 13%
25 Nov 2014 Survation/University of Exeter 500 30.0% 22.4% 6.3% 33.0% 6.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 37.6% 16.3% 37.4% 5.1% 1.4% 1.8% – 0.4% 0.2%

Cambridge

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24–28 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1000 17% 31% 40% 3% 9% – 9%
3–12 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1000 19% 33% 32% 7% 8% 1% 1%
4–8 Apr 2014 ICM/Lord Oakeshott 500 18% 41% 28% 5% 5% 2% 13%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 25.6% 24.3% 39.1% 2.4% 7.6% 1.0% 13.5%

Cannock Chase

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
16–24 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,002 38% 32% 5% 21% 3% – 1% 6%
22–27 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 32% 27% 8% 30% 2% – 1% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 33.1% 40.1% 17.0% 3.5% – 4.8% 1.6% 7%

Carlisle

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
11–16 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 30% 41% 5% 18% 3% 3% 11%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 39.3% 37.3% 15.6% 2.3% 1.5% 4.1% 2.0%

Carshalton and Wallington

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
29 Oct – 6 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 12% 23% 43% 17% 3% 1% 20%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 8.7% 36.8% 48.3% 2.9% 0.8% 2.4% 11.5%

Castle Point

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–24 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 12% 41% 2% 36% 3% 5% 5%
26 Jan – 5 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,002 16% 37% 3% 36% 2% 6% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 14.7% 44.0% 9.4% – - 31.9% 17.0%

Cheadle

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–22 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 19% 30% 34% 13% 2% 3% 4%
26 May – 1 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,003 21% 29% 32% 15% 2% 1% 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 9.4% 40.8% 47.1% 2.7% – – 6.3%

Cheltenham

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
27 Oct – 1 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 7% 34% 42% 11% 5% 1% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 5.1% 41.2% 50.5% 2.3% – 0.9 9.3%

Chippenham

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
14–20 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 39% 14% 24% 16% 6% 1% 15%
26 May – 1 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 35% 12% 26% 19% 7% 1% 9%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 41.0% 6.9% 45.8% 3.4% 0.9% 2% 4.8%

City of Chester

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
26 Feb – 5 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 45% 34% 7% 10% 3% 1% 11%
13–18 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 37% 36% 7% 15% 5% 1% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 35.1% 40.6% 19.1% 2.6% 1.1% 1.5% 5.5%

Clacton

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 36.7% 14.4% 44.4% 1.8% 1.9% - 7.8%
9 Oct 2014 2014 Clacton by-election – 24.6% 11.2% 59.7% 1.4% 2.7% 1.2% 35.1%
29 Aug – 1 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 27% 19% 48% 3% 3% <0.5% 21%
29 Aug – 1 Sep 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 1,001 24% 16% 56% 2% 1% 1% 32%
28–29 Aug 2014 Survation (By-election polling) 700 20% 13% 64% 2% 1% <0.5% 44%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 53.0% 25.0% – 12.9% 1.2% 7.8% 28.0%

Cleethorpes

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2–11 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 38% 36% 6% 15% 3% 1% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 42.1% 32.6% 18.2% 7.1% - 3.9% 9.5%

Colchester

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
4–14 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 17% 22% 36% 18% 6% 1% 14%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 12.3% 32.9% 48.0% 2.9% 1.5% 2.4% 15.1%

Colne Valley

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
16–22 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 35% 37% 8% 11% 6% 2% 2%
2–12 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 34% 33% 9% 13% 9% 1% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 26.4% 37.0% 28.2% 2.1% 1.6% 4.7% 8.7%

Corby

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
10–17 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 40% 30% 5% 21% 2% 2% 10%
15 Nov 2012 2012 Corby by-election – 48.4% 26.6% 5.0% 14.3% 1.1% 4.6% 21.8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.6% 42.2% 14.5% – – 4.7% 3.6%

Crewe and Nantwich

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Others Lead
2–9 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 38% 41% 13% 4% 1% 3%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation/Alan Bown 500 33% 46% 11% 6% 5% 13%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 45.8% 34.0% 2.8% 15.0% 2.3% 11.8%

Croydon Central

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others Lead
26–30 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,003 44% 40% 10% 2% 3% 0% 4%
3–12 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 37% 41% 13% 3% 5% 1% 4%
14–18 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 33% 39% 19% 4% 4% 1% 6%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 39.5% 33.5% 2.0% 13.2% 1.2% 10.6% 6.0%

Derby North

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
28 May – 4 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 23% 44% 17% 12% 2% 2% 21%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 31.7% 33% 28% 1.8% – 5.4% 1.3%

Dewsbury

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–23 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 30% 40% 4% 18% 6% 3% 10%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 35% 32.2% 16.9% - 1.6% 14.3% 2.8%

Doncaster North

Note: Michael Ashcroft initially published incorrect results for his 18–23 Nov 2014 poll,[3] erroneously showing only a small Labour lead. The corrected poll results are below.

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
18–23 Nov 2014 Ashcroft, Corrected 1,000 13% 54% 4% 25% 2% 1% 2% 29%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 21.0% 47.3% 14.9% 4.3% – 6.8% 5.6% 26.3%

Dover

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2–9 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,002 32% 40% 3% 20% 4% - 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 33.5% 44% 15.8% 3.5% - 3.2% 10.5%

Dudley North

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con UKIP LD Others Lead
20–27 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 37% 24% 34% 3% 3% 3%
28 Apr – 4 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 40% 24% 27% 4% 5% 13%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation 526 45% 25% 23% 2% 5% 20%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.7% 37.0% 8.5% 10.5% 5.3% 1.7%

Dudley South

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Lead
7–10 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 35% 39% 3% 18% 4% 4%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 33% 43.1% 15.7% 8.2% - 10.1%

Ealing Central and Acton

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
1–6 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 34% 40% 11% 6% 7% 2% 6%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.0% 30.1% 27.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 7.9%

Eastbourne

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
27 Aug – 5 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 7% 25% 46% 18% 2% 2% 21%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 4.8% 40.7% 47.3% 2.5% - 4.6% 6.6%

Eastleigh

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size LD Con UKIP Lab Green Others Lead
20–28 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 538 40% 25% 21% 12% 2% 1% 15%
29 May – 6 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 523 39% 27% 22% 10% 2% 0% 12%
14–17 Apr 2014 Survation/Alan Bown 369 27.1% 28.2% 31.6% 11.5% 1.0% 0.6% 3.4%
28 Feb 2013 2013 Eastleigh by-election – 32.1% 25.4% 27.8% 9.8% – 4.9% 4.3%
22–24 Feb 2013 Ashcroft (By-election polling)[a] 416 33% 28% 23% 12% – 4% 5%
19–22 Feb 2013 Populus/Times (By-election polling)[a] 408 33% 28% 25% 11% – 4% 5%
18–22 Feb 2013 Survation/Mail on Sunday (By-election polling) 402 29% 33% 21% 13% – 4% 4%
6–8 Feb 2013 Survation/Mail on Sunday[b] 321 36% 33% 16% 13% 0.3% 0.1% 3%
4–5 Feb 2013 Ashcroft (By-election polling)[c] 314 31% 34% 15% 19% 1% 1% 3%
2–5 Aug 2010 Ashcroft 513 31% 43% – 20% – 6% 12%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 46.5% 39.3% 3.6% 9.6% – 1.0% 7.2%

Elmet and Rothwell

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
8–13 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 39% 35% 6% 16% 3% 1% 4%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 42.6% 34.5% 16.3% 2.9% – 3.6% 8.1%

Enfield North

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
17–25 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 34% 44% 3% 12% 3% 3% 10%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 42.3% 38.5% 12.2% 2.1% 1.1% 3.9% 3.8%

Erewash

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
3–14 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,003 30% 38% 5% 22% 3% 2% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 39.5% 34.2% 17.5% 1.8% 1.1% 2.9% 5.3%

Finchley and Golders Green

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Lead
7–11 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 43% 41% 6% 6% 4% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 33.7% 46% 17% 1.7% 1.6% 12.3%

Folkestone and Hythe

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con LD UKIP Lab Green Others Lead
3–4 Apr 2014 Survation/Mail on Sunday 529 36.4% 9.6% 32.9% 17.8% 1.9% 1.5% 3.5%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation/Alan Bown 548 35% 10% 28% 21% 4% 2% 7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 49.4% 30.3% 4.6% 10.8% 1.2% 3.6% 19.1%

Gloucester

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24 Mar – 4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 40% 36% 9% 12% 3% 1% 4%
24 Sep – 2 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 34% 33% 12% 18% 3% 0% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 39.9% 35.2% 19.2% 3.6% 1% 1.1% 4.8%

Great Grimsby

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con UKIP LD Others Lead
15–24 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1000 42% 24% 25% 5% 4% 17%
20–27 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 35% 20% 34% 8% 4% 1%
5–11 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 38% 21% 26% 10% 5% 12%
18–22 Oct 2013 Survation 506 40% 21% 23% 11% 5% 17%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 32.7% 30.5% 6.2% 22.4% 8.1% 2.2%

Great Yarmouth

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others Lead
15–24 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 36% 34% 24% 2% 4% 1% 2%
11–16 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 33% 28% 32% 3% 3% 1% 1%
21–27 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 32% 31% 29% 5% 2% 1% 1%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation/Alan Bown 507 27% 37% 30% 3% 2% 7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 43.1% 33.2% 4.8% 14.4% 1.0% 3.5% 9.9%

Halesowen and Rowley Regis

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24 Feb – 5 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 37% 39% 4% 15% 3% 2% 2%
24 Sep – 3 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 34% 35% 2% 24% 4% 1% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 41.2% 36.6% 14.8% 6.4% – 1.0% 4.6%

Halifax

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
12–18 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 43% 26% 8% 18% 2% 3% 17%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 37.4% 34% 19.1% 1.5% - 8% 3.4%

Hampstead and Kilburn

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others Lead
23 Jul – 3 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 30% 47% 2% 13% 6% 1% 17%
21–27 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,003 30% 41% 3% 19% 6% 0% 11%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 32.7% 32.8% 0.8% 31.2% 1.4% 1% 0.1%

Harlow

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2–10 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 34% 44% 3% 16% 2% 1% 10%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 33.7% 44.9% 13.7% 3.6% - 4.2% 11.2%

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
5–12 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 11% 41% 24% 16% 8% 0% 17%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 6.4% 45.7% 43.8% 2% - 2.1% 1.9%

Harrow East

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Mar – 4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 40% 44% 4% 8% 3% 1% 4%
1–7 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 40% 37% 6% 13% 3% 0% 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 44.7% 37.6% 14.3% 1.9% 1.7% – 7.1%

Hastings and Rye

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
17–25 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 40% 31% 5% 19% 3% 1% 9%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 37.1% 41.1% 15.7% 2.8% - 3.3% 4%

Hazel Grove

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Lead
4–15 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 15% 29% 35% 17% 4% 6%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 12.5% 33.6% 48.8% 5.1% – 15.2%

Hendon

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
18–29 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 34% 49% 4% 9% 1% 1% 15%
31 Mar – 6 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 36% 44% 7% 11% 2% 1% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 42.3% 42.1% 12.4% 2.1% 1.1% – 0.2%

Heywood and Middleton

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
9 Oct 2014 2014 Heywood and Middleton by-election – 40.9% 12.3% 5.1% 38.7% 3.1% – 2.2%
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 1,000 47% 16% 5% 28% 4% – 19%
30 Sep 2014 Survation/The Sun (By-election polling) 551 50% 13% 4% 31% 3% – 19%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 40.1% 27.2% 22.7% 2.6% - 7.4% 12.9%

High Peak

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
17–23 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 38% 40% 7% 10% 5% 1% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 31.6% 40.9% 21.8% 3.4% 1.8% 0.4% 9.3%

Hornsey and Wood Green

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
3 Mar 2015 Liberal Democrats
(fieldwork by Survation)		 325 15% 37% 36% 4% 7% 1% 1%
3–13 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 14% 43% 30% 3% 8% 1% 13%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 16.7% 34.0% 46.5% – 2.3% 0.6% 12.5%

Hove

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 39.9% 42.3% 3.6% 6.3% 6.8% 1.1% 2.4%
1–4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,002 37% 43% 5% 5% 9% 1% 6%
17–27 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 34% 37% 6% 11% 12% - 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 36.7% 33.0% 22.6% 2.4% 5.2% 0.2% 3.7%

Ipswich

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24 Sep – 2 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 38% 31% 6% 19% 5% 1% 7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 34.7% 39.1% 18.2% 2.9% 1.7% 3.3% 4.4%

Keighley

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
20–26 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 37% 31% 5% 23% 3% 1% 6%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 35.8% 41.9% 14.8% 3.1% - 4.4% 6.1%

Kingston and Surbiton

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
29 Oct – 8 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 30% 16% 38% 10% 6% 1% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 36.5% 9.3% 49.8% 2.5% 1% 0.8% 13.3%

Kingswood

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
28 Mar – 3 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 42% 33% 5% 15% 4% 1% 9%
3–14 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 34% 32% 6% 23% 4% 1% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 40.4% 35.3% 16.8% 3.2% 0.8% 3.4% 5.1%

Lancaster and Fleetwood

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
26 Jun – 4 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 27% 41% 4% 18% 10% 1% 14%
8–13 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,002 29% 43% 6% 12% 9% 1% 14%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 36.1% 35.2% 19.1% 4.4% – 2.7% 0.8%

Lewes

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 38.0% 9.9% 35.9% 10.7% 5.5% - 2.1%
11–20 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 29% 9% 37% 15% 7% 2% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 36.7% 5% 52% 3.4% 1.5% 1.4% 15.3%

Lincoln

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
14–21 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 39% 35% 6% 17% 3% 1% 4%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 35.2% 37.5% 20.2% 2.2% - 4.8% 2.3%

Loughborough

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Mar – 3 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 45% 36% 3% 12% 3% 1% 9%
22–25 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 40% 37% 5% 12% 3% 3% 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 41.6% 34.5% 18.3% 1.8% - 3.9% 7.1%

Manchester Withington

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
11–21 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 56% 7% 22% 4% 10% 1% 34%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 40.5% 11.1% 44.6% 1.5% 1.8% 0.4% 4.1%

Mid Dorset and North Poole

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Jul – 9 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 38% 8% 32% 19% 3% 1% 6%
12–18 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 39% 8% 32% 17% 3% 1% 7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 44.5% 5.9% 45.1% 4.5% - - 0.6%

Milton Keynes South

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7–10 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 37% 39% 8% 10% 4% 2% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 41.6% 32.2% 17.7% 3.7% 1.4% 3.3% 9.4%

Morecambe and Lunesdale

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
1–4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 36% 42% 5% 12% 5% 1% 6%
7–11 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 34% 37% 6% 18% 4% 2% 3%
14–20 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 37% 39% 5% 12% 3% 1% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 41.5% 39.5% 13.3% 4.2% 1.4% - 2%

Morley and Outwood

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
5–11 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,003 41% 24% 5% 20% 2% 8% 17%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 37.6% 35.3% 16.8% 3.1% - 7.2% 2.3%

Newark

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Others Lead
5 Jun 2014 2014 Newark by-election – 45.0% 17.7% 3% 25.9% 8% 19%
2–3 Jun 2014 Survation 678 42% 22% 4% 27% 5% 15%
27 May – 1 Jun 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 1,000 42% 20% 6% 27% 5% 15%
27–28 May 2014 Survation/The Sun 606 36% 27% 5% 28% 5% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 53.9% 22.3% 20.0% 3.8% – 31.5%

Newton Abbot

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
5–12 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 13% 39% 20% 20% 7% 1% 19%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 7% 43% 41.9% 6.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1%

North Cornwall

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24–29 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,002 36% 5% 38% 14% 5% 3% 2%
12–20 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,004 36% 6% 38% 13% 6% 1% 2%
15–20 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 33% 10% 33% 20% 3% 1% Tied
26 May – 1 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 31% 8% 31% 24% 5% 2% Tied
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 41.7% 4.2% 48.1% 4.9% - 1.1% 6.4%

North Devon

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24–26 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 38% 8% 31% 16% 6% 2% 7%
29 Oct – 6 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 30% 9% 29% 23% 7% 2% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 36% 7.2% 47.4% 7.2% 1.4% 2.8% 11.4%

North East Cambridgeshire

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
26 Jan – 5 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 17% 46% 7% 25% 4% 1% 21%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 17.8% 51.6% 20% 5.4% - 5.2% 31.6%

North East Somerset

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7–11 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 28% 44% 9% 10% 8% 1% 16%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 31.7% 41.3% 22.3% 3.4% 1.3% - 9.6%

North Warwickshire

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
18–28 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 41% 30% 2% 22% 2% 2% 11%
31 Mar – 6 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 43% 35% 3% 15% 3% 1% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 40.1% 40.2% 11.6% 2.8% – 0.9% 0.1%

Norwich North

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24–30 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 38% 36% 6% 12% 8% 1% 2%
4–12 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 35% 34% 5% 18% 10% 0% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 31.4% 40.6% 18.3% 4.4% 2.9% 2.4% 9.2%

Norwich South

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
11–21 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 33% 18% 12% 15% 20% 1% 13%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 28.7% 22.9% 29.4% 2.4% 14.9% 1.7% 0.7%

Nuneaton

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
26 Feb – 5 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 39% 34% 4% 14% 8% – 1% 5%
24 Sep – 3 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 39% 36% 3% 19% 2% – 1% 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 36.9% 41.5% 15.3% – – 6.3% - 4.6%

Oxford West and Abingdon

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
21–28 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 18% 38% 30% 9% 4% <0.5% 8%
30 May – 5 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 18% 36% 25% 11% 8% 1% 11%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 10.6% 42.3% 42.0% 2.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.3%

Pendle

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Mar – 4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 41% 37% 8% 10% 4% 1% 4%
8–14 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 36% 33% 11% 17% 2% 1% 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.9% 30.9% 20.2% 3.3% – 6.7% 8.0%

Plymouth Moor View

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–23 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 506 35% 26% 5% 30% 2% 1% 5%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 37.2% 33.3% 16.9% 7.7% 1.0% 4.0% 3.8%

Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–23 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 506 39% 26% 6% 21% 8% 1% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 31.7% 34.3% 24.7% 6.5% 2.1% 0.7% 2.6%

Portsmouth South

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
29 Oct – 6 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 20% 30% 25% 17% 6% 1% 5%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 13.7% 33.3% 45.9% 2.1% 1.7% 3.4% 12.6%

Redcar

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
27 Aug – 6 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 44% 12% 18% 23% 2% 1% 21%
17–19 Apr 2014 ICM/Lord Oakeshott 500 47% 15% 15% 19% 2% 2% 28%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 32.7% 13.8% 45.2% 4.5% – 3.8% 12.5%

Rochester and Strood

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–22 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1000 36% 24% 3% 33% 4% 1% 3%
20 Nov 2014 2014 Rochester and Strood by-election – 34.8% 16.8% 0.9% 42.1% 4.2% 2.2% 7.3%
7–10 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 543 36% 21% 2% 35% 5% 1% 1%
7–10 Nov 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 543 32% 17% 2% 44% 4%[d] 1% 12%
27–28 Oct 2014 Survation 1,012 33% 16% 1% 48% 1.7% 2% 15%
17–21 Oct 2014 ComRes[e] 949 30% 21% 3% 43% 2% 1% 13%
4 Oct 2014 Survation/Mail on Sunday 677 31% 25% 2% 40% 1% 0.4% 9%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 49.2% 28.5% 16.3% – 1.5% 4.5% 20.7%

Rother Valley

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green BNP Others Lead
24–29 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 480 18% 40% 34% 4% 3% <0.5% 2% 6%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 28.4% 40.9% 5.6% 17.3% – 7.7% – 12.5%

Sheffield Hallam

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
4 May 2015 ICM/Guardian1 501 35% 12% 42% 7% 3% 2% 7%
22–28 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 37% 15% 36% 7% 4% 1% 1%
22–28 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 36% 16% 34% 7% 6% 1% 2%
22–29 Jan 2015 Survation/Unite 1,011 33% 22% 23% 9% 12% <0.5% 10%
20–22 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 962 30% 19% 27%[f] 13% 10% 1% 3%
29 Apr – 4 May 2014 ICM/Lord Oakeshott 500 33% 24% 23% 10% 8% 1% 9%
1–4 Oct 2010 Populus/Ashcroft 1,000 31% 28% 33% N/A N/A 8% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 16.1% 23.5% 53.4% 2.3% 1.8% 2.7% 29.9%

1: These figures represent the results when respondents were presented with named candidates. When asked to think only about the political parties [the methodology used by the Ashcroft polls] the figures showed a small Labour lead.[4]

Solihull

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Jul – 10 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 12% 37% 28% 16% 6% 1% 9%
12–18 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 12% 37% 28% 16% 6% 1% 9%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 8.9% 42.6% 42.9% 2.2% – 3.5% 0.3%

Southampton Itchen

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24 Feb – 7 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 35% 30% 7% 20% 8% – 5%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 36.8% 36.3% 20.8% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4%

South Basildon and East Thurrock

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
26 Jan – 5 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 28% 35% 3% 29% 3% 1% 6%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 31.0% 43.9% 13.4% 5.9% - 5.9% 12.9%

South Swindon

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
22–28 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 37% 36% 6% 16% 4% - 1%
3–12 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 36% 35% 5% 19% 4% 2% 1%
1–6 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 508 34% 34% 7% 20% 4% 1% Tied
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 41.8% 34.3% 17.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.7% 7.5%

South Thanet

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Others Lead
22–28 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 34% 26% 32% 3% 5% 2%
22 Apr 2015 Survation/Alan Bown [g] 1,057 30% 26% 39% 2% 3% 9%
13–18 Mar 2015 ComRes/Chartwell Political Archived 12 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine 1,003 31% 29% 30% 5% 5% 1%
18–20 Feb 2015 Survation/Alan Bown [g] 1,011 27% 28% 38% 2% 5% 10%
23–24 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,003 33% 27% 32% 4% 4% 1%
11–16 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 29% 29% 33% 4% 5% 4%
21–27 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 32% 31% 27% 7% 3% 1%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation 515 28% 35% 30% 5% 2% 5%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 48.0% 31.4% 5.5% 15.1% – 16.6%

South West Surrey

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con LD UKIP Lab Green Others Lead
4–5 Dec 2014 Survation/Unite 587 57% 8% 15% 11% 7% 1% 42%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 58.7% 30.2% 2.6% 6.0% 1.2% 1.4% 28.5%

St Austell and Newquay

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1002 32% 10% 26% 20% 6% 4% 6%
6–16 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 493 27% 13% 26% 25% 6% 3% 1%
19–25 May 2014 Ashcroft[h] 473 32% 10% 24% 25% 4% 5% 7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 40.0% 7.2% 42.7% 3.7% – 6.4% 2.8%

Stevenage

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
8–13 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 497 38% 33% 7% 18% 3% 0% 5%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 33.4% 41.4% 16.6% 4.5% – 4.1% 8.0%

Stockton South

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Mar – 4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1000 39% 44% 3% 9% 1% 3% 5%
6–12 Nov 2014 Survation/Unite 571 39.1% 36.5% 2.8% 18.2% 3.1% 0.2% 2.6%
26 Jun – 4 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 521 35% 38% 4% 19% 2% 2% 3%
7–13 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 512 36% 43% 5% 12% 0% 3% 7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.9% 38.3% 15.1% 2.9% – 4.8% 0.6%

Stroud

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
11–16 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 561 30% 41% 6% 11% 11% <0.5% 11%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 40.8% 38.6% 15.4% 2.2% 2.7% 0.2% 2.2%

Sutton and Cheam

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
6–16 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 11% 27% 45% 14% 3% 0% 18%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 7.0% 42.4% 45.7% 2.0% 0.5% 2.5% 3.3%

Thurrock

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 33.7% 32.6% 31.7% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1%
17–23 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 30% 31% 35% 1% 3% 4%
18–26 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,002 28% 30% 36% 2% 4% 6%
31 Mar – 6 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 394 27% 37% 29% 4% 3% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 36.8% 36.6% 7.4% 10.7% 8.5% 0.2%

Torbay

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 8.7% 40.7% 33.8% 13.6% 3.2% 0.0% 6.9%
12–21 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 11% 33% 34% 17% 3% 1% 1%
27 Aug – 6 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 15% 30% 30% 21% 3% 1% Tied
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 6.6% 38.7% 47.0% 5.3% 1.0% 1.4% 8.3%

Twickenham

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green BNP Others Lead
11–16 Apr 2014 ICM/Oakeshott 501 34% 23% 5% 32% 4% 1% 1% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 34.1% 7.7% 1.5% 54.4% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 20.3%

Warwick & Leamington

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
1–6 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 534 38% 34% 7% 14% 7% <0.5% 4%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 42.6% 35.4% 18.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.4% 7.2%

Watford

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 43.5% 26.0% 18.1% 9.8% 2.4% 0.3% 17.4%
11–20 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 525 30% 24% 28% 14% 3% 0% 2%
20–28 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 525 27% 29% 25% 14% 4% 1% 2%
19 May – 6 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 524 29% 25% 24% 16% 6% 0% 4%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 34.9% 26.7% 32.4% 2.2% 1.6% 2.2% 2.6%

Weaver Vale

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
14–22 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,001 32% 41% 6% 18% 2% 1% 9%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.5% 36.3% 18.6% 2.3% 0.8% 3.4% 2.2%

Wirral West

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24–30 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 43% 46% 3% 5% 2% 0% 3%
3–12 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 37% 42% 5% 10% 5% 1% 5%
22–26 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 38% 39% 6% 12% 4% 1% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 42.5% 36.3% 16.8% 2.3% – 2.1% 6.2%

Witney

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con LD UKIP Lab Green Others Lead
2–4 Dec 2014 Survation/Unite 531 53% 4% 19% 16% 7% 1% 34%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 58.8% 19.4% 3.5% 13.0% 4.1% 1.2% 39.4%

Worcester

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
3–12 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,002 38% 33% 4% 15% 7% – 2% 5%
13–19 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,002 34% 36% 5% 17% 7% – 1% 2%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 39.5% 33.4% 19.4% 2.8% 1.5% 2.5% 0.7% 6.1%

Wyre Forest

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP ICHC Others Lead
11–20 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 518 32% 16% 7% 27% 5% <1% - 13% 5%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 36.9% 14.3% 11.9% 2.9% – 2.2% 31.7% – 5.2%

Wythenshawe and Sale East

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab UKIP Con LD Others Lead
13 Feb 2014 2014 Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election – 55.3% 18.0% 14.5% 4.9% 7.3% 37.3%
3–5 Feb 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 1,009 61% 15% 14% 5% 4% 46%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 44.1% 3.4% 25.6% 22.3% 4.6% 18.6%

Northern Ireland

Belfast East

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size DUP APNI UUP PUP TUV SF UKIP Green SDLP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 49.3% 42.8% – – – 2.1% – – 0.3% 2.8% 6.5%
12–28 Jan 2015 LucidTalk 820 34.4% 28.7% 14.6% 6.5% 2.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 0.8% 7.5% 5.7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 32.8% 37.2% 21.2% – 5.4% 2.4% – – 1.1% – 4.4%

Scotland

Airdrie and Shotts

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 7.7% 34.1% 1.5% 2.5% - 53.9% 0.3% 19.8%
14–22 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 7% 39% 1% 5% 1% 47% 0% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 8.7% 58.2% 8.1% – – 23.5% 1.5% 34.6%

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 19.8% 27.3% 1.6% 2.5% - 48.8% - 21.6%
10–19 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 21% 31% 2% 3% 0% 42% 1% 11%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 25.5% 47.1% 9.3% – – 18.0% – 21.6%

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 36.0% 4.9% 18.7% 2.4% 1.1% 36.6% 0.2% 0.6%
13–16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 30% 9% 28% 3% 1% 29% 0% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 33.8% 10.2% 45.4% 1.2% – 9.2% 0.3% 11.6%

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 6.3% 33.9% 1.1% 2.1% - 56.6% - 22.7%
7–17 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 6% 43% 1% 3% 1% 46% 1% 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 8.1% 66.6% 8.5% – – 16.8% – 49.8%

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 7.9% 30.0% 2.2% - - 59.9% - 29.9%
14–22 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 6% 34% 2% 3% 3% 52% 1% 18%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 8.3% 57.2% 9.5% – – 23.8% 1.2% 33.3%

Dumfries and Galloway

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 29.9% 24.7% 1.7% 2.3% – 41.4% – 11.5%
19–26 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,002 30% 28% 2% 4% 2% 34% 0% 4%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 31.6% 45.9% 8.8% 1.3% – 12.3% – 14.3%

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 39.8% 14.8% 2.7% 2.8% 1.6% 38.3% - 1.5%
24–29 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 31% 17% 5% 4% 2% 42% - 11%
9–15 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 34% 20% 4% 2% 2% 36% 1% 2%
10–19 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 34% 18% 7% 4% 2% 34% 1% Tied
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 38.0% 28.9% 19.8% 1.4% 1.1% 10.8% – 9.1%

Dundee West

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 8.6% 23.7% 2.4% - 2.7% 61.9% 0.7% 38.2%
23–30 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 6% 25% 3% 2% 5% 59% 0% 34%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 9.3% 48.5% 11.4% – – 28.9% 1.9% 19.6%

East Dunbartonshire

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 8.6% 12.3% 36.3% 1.0% 1.5% 40.3% - 4.0%
10–16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 12% 16% 29% 1% 1% 40% 0% 11%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 15.5% 34.1% 38.7% 1.1% – 10.5% - 4.6%

East Renfrewshire

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 21.9% 34.0% 1.8% 1.6% – 40.6% 6.5%
24–30 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 20% 36% 3% 1% 1% 39% 3%
11–16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,002 25% 31% 3% 1% 1% 40% 9%
16–26 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 26% 34% 2% 1% 3% 33% 1%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 30.4% 50.8% 9.2% 0.7% – 8.9% 20.4%

Edinburgh North and Leith

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
14–17 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 14% 29% 6% 1% 6% 43% 0% 14%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 14.9% 37.5% 33.8% – 2.2% 9.6% 1.6% 3.5%

Edinburgh South

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
13–17 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 16% 34% 8% 1% 4% 37% 1% 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 21.6% 34.7% 34.0% – 2.0% 7.7% - 0.7%

Edinburgh South West

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
11–19 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 19% 27% 4% 2% 7% 40% 0% 13%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 24.3% 42.8% 18.0% – 1.9% 12.2% 0.8% 18.6%

Glasgow Central

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
5–10 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 5% 35% 3% 3% 7% 45% 2% 10%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 7.1% 52.0% 16.4% 0.8% 2.6% 17.5% 3.6% 34.5%

Glasgow East

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
5–8 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 4% 37% 1% 4% 2% 51% 2% 14%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 4.5% 61.6% 5.0% 0.6% – 24.7% 3.5% 36.8%

Glasgow North

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
5–10 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 5% 33% 4% 1% 11% 45% 1% 12%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 7.1% 44.5% 31.3% – 3.2% 11.9% 2.0% 13.2%

Glasgow North East

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
5–8 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 4% 46% 1% 5% 4% 39% 1% 7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 5.3% 68.3% 7.7% – – 14.1% 4.4% 54.2%

Glasgow North West

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7–17 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 7% 38% 3% 2% 5% 44% 1% 6%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 9.9% 54.1% 15.8% – 2.5% 15.3% 2.5% 38.3%

Glasgow South

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7–16 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 9% 33% 2% 3% 3% 48% 1% 15%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 11.5% 51.7% 11.8% – 2.4% 20.1% 2.5% 31.6%

Glasgow South West

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
11–16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,003 6% 34% 2% 3% 1% 55% 1% 21%
7–15 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 4% 42% 2% 5% 2% 45% 1% 3%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 6.6% 62.5% 9.0% – – 16.3% 5.5% 46.2%

Gordon

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
22–29 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,002 11% 14% 26% 4% 1% 43% 1% 17%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 18.7% 20.1% 36.0% – 1.5% 22.2% 1.4% 13.8%

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
20–29 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 10% 13% 21% 4% 1% 50% 1% 29%
23–26 May 2014 ICM/Oakeshott 500 12% 25% 16% 7% 4% 32% 3% 7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 13.3% 22.1% 40.7% 1.2% 1.7% 18.7% 2.5% 18.6%

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
19–26 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 7% 39% 3% 3% 3% 45% 0% 6%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 9.3% 64.5% 9.3% 1.7% – 14.3% 0.9% 50.2%

Motherwell and Wishaw

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
14–22 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 5% 39% 1% 3% 1% 50% 1% 11%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 9.4% 61.1% 9.8% – – 18.2% 1.6% 42.9%

North East Fife

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
10–16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 16% 9% 30% 4% 1% 43% 1% 13%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 21.8% 17.1% 44.3% 2.6% - 14.2% - 22.6%

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 2015 general election – 7.6% 38.6% 2.2% – – 50.9% 0.6% 12.3%
11–16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,005 6% 39% 1% 2% 1% 50% 1% 11%
22–29 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 6% 40% 2% 1% 2% 48% 1% 8%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 9.9% 59.6% 9.5% – – 18.1% 2.9% 41.5%

Ross, Skye and Lochaber

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
9–15 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 7% 6% 33% 2% 3% 48% 1% 15%
16–26 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 8% 9% 35% 2% 5% 40% 1% 5%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 12.2% 15.1% 52.6% 1.9% 2.2% 15.1% 0.8% 37.5%

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
11–19 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,001 25% 10% 20% 3% 2% 39% 0% 14%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 30.3% 13.6% 38.4% 0.9% – 15.7% 1.1% 8.1%

West Dunbartonshire

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
14–22 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,000 6% 38% 1% 4% 2% 47% 1% 9%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 7.7% 61.3% 8.1% 1.6% – 20.1% 1.2% 41.2%

Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
27 Oct – 1 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 553 8% 15% 27% 31% 17% 2% 0% 4%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 2.5% 10.5% 36.5% 46.2% 2.3% 0.9% 1.1% 9.6%

Cardiff Central

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
19–22 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 542 9% 36% 17% 24% 9% 5% <0.5% 12%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 3.4% 28.8% 21.6% 41.4% 2.1% 1.6% 1.0% 12.6%

Cardiff North

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
18–27 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,000 7% 41% 30% 6% 12% 3% 1% 11%
31 Mar – 6 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 461 7% 41% 34% 8% 8% 1% <0.5% 7%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 3.3% 37.1% 37.5% 18.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4%

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
8–13 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 515 16% 29% 33% 4% 14% 3% 1% 4%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 10.4% 32.7% 41.1% 12.1% 2.8% – 0.9% 8.5%

Vale of Glamorgan

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2–12 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 532 12% 32% 38% 4% 10% 3% 1% 6%
6 May 2010 2010 general election – 5.5% 32.9% 41.8% 15.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.5% 8.8%


Multiple constituency polling

Some polls are carried out in specified subsets of marginal constituencies. Most of the polls for Michael Ashcroft were compilations of polls in individual constituencies.

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client No of Seats
surveyed		 Incumbents by party Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others
1–14 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 8 8 Con 8,000 36% 35% 14% 6% 5%[i] 2%
20–29 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 4 4 Lab 4,002 22% 37% 33% 5% 2%[j] 1%
15–24 Nov 2014 ComRes/ITV News 40 25 Con, 15 Lab 743 31% 39% 18% 7% 4% <0.5%
2–27 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 12 12 Con 12,008 32% 35% 23% 5% 4% 1%
10 Sep – 3 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 11 11 Con 11,002 32% 38% 18% 5% 5% 1%
18–26 Sep 2014 ComRes/ITV News 40 25 Con, 15 Lab 766 30% 41% 17% 6% 5% 2%
31 Jul – 14 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 5 5 LibDem 5,000 15% 38% 10% 28% 6% 3%
31 Jul – 6 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 17 2 Con, 15 LibDem 8,909 32% 13% 17% 32% 4% 1%
11 Jul –11 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 8 8 Con 8,005 30% 40% 8% 17% 5% 1%
11 Jul –11 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 4 4 Lab 4,001 30% 43% 9% 13% 4% 1%
18 Jun –16 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 14 14 Con 14,004 31% 38% 4% 21% 4% 2%
18–25 Jun 2014 ComRes/ITV News 40 25 Con, 15 Lab 795 31% 36% 17% 7% 6% 3%
11–22 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 4 4 LD 1,963 12% 47% 10% 19% 9% 2%
11 May –14 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 17 6 Con, 11 LibDem 8,728 33% 14% 18% 28% 6%[d] 1%
15–20 May 2014 ComRes/Independent 40 25 Con, 15 Lab 1,030 33% (−4) 35% (−2) 17% (+14) 8% (−10) 4% 2%
31 Mar –18 May 2014 Ashcroft 26 14 Con, 12 Lab 26,025 29% 41% 18% 8% 4%
1 Aug –5 Sep 2013 Ashcroft 40 40 Con 12,809 30% 35% 12% 13% 10%

Explanatory notes

The Lord Ashcroft polls typically ask two voting intention questions, with the second question asking the respondent to think "specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there".[2] This latter question is reported in the tables above.

Most polling companies are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its disclosure rules; however, Michael Ashcroft, who commissioned many of these polls, is not a BPC member, despite having been invited to join. However, he contracts the conduct of his polls to BPC members.[5]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Percentages for UKIP/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  2. ^ Percentage for Greens based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  3. ^ Percentages for UKIP/Green/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  4. ^ a b Based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  5. ^ By-election polling
  6. ^ This poll originally, erroneously, showed a small lead for the LDs: see http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sheffield-hallam-doncaster-north-thanet-south/#more-7536
  7. ^ a b Candidates named in the poll.
  8. ^ Share for Greens based on a table that did not further prompt "don't know" and refusers.
  9. ^ Based on a mean of the (non-aggregated) shares of 3%, 9%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 5%, 3% and 7% in the eight constituencies
  10. ^ Based on non-aggregated shares of 3%, 2%, 2% and 2% in the four constituencies

References

  1. ^ Patrick Wintour (19 February 2015). "Lib Dem polling brings hope of future coalition role". The Guardian.
  2. ^ a b "Introducing the New Statesman Political Index: Lib Dems to win at least 30 seats". New Statesman. 8 June 2021.
  3. ^ "Ed Miliband and Doncaster North: a correction (and apology) – Lord Ashcroft Polls". lordashcroftpolls.com. Archived from the original on 2 December 2014. Retrieved 2 December 2014.
  4. ^ Sheffield Hallam Constituency Poll for The Guardian Archived 7 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine - ICM Media Centre, 4 May 2015
  5. ^ "Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North and Thanet South". Michael Ashcroft. Archived from the original on 9 February 2015. Retrieved 7 February 2015."Minutes of the Annual General Meeting 2013". British Polling Council. Archived from the original on 19 May 2014. Retrieved 19 May 2014.

P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.

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