Next French legislative election

Next French legislative election
By June 2029
All 577 seats in the National Assembly
289 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Collective leadership Gabriel Attal
Alliance NFP Ensemble
Last election 193 159
Seats needed 96 130
 
Leader Jordan Bardella Bruno Retailleau
Party RN/UDR LR
Last election 142 39
Seats needed 147 250
Incumbent Prime Minister

Sébastien Lecornu
RE



Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in France by 2029 to elect all 577 members of the 18th National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic.[1] Given the 2024–2025 French political crisis, a dissolution of the National Assembly for a snap election is possible before the presidential election.[2][3]

Background

See also: 2024–2025 French political crisis

The 2024 elections resulted in a hung parliament and four minority governments led by Michel Barnier, François Bayrou, and Sébastien Lecornu, all being appointed by Emmanuel Macron. Both Barnier and Bayrou's governments collapsed as a result of confidence votes. Lecornu initially resigned 14 hours after presenting his first government, before being reappointed by Macron four days later. The absence of a stable majority means the government constantly lives under the threat of a vote of no confidence as well as losing parliamentary votes, leading to speculations of snap elections taking place well ahead of 2029.[4][5][6]

Electoral system

The 577 members of the National Assembly, known as deputies, are elected for five years by a two-round system in single-member constituencies. A candidate who receives an absolute majority of valid votes and a vote total greater than 25% of the registered electorate is elected in the first round. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates plus any other candidate who received a vote total greater than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.[7]

Opinion polls

Opinion polling for the next French legislative election
Polling firm Date Sample size EXG NFP DVG ECO ENS DVC LR DVD DLF RN and allies REC Others Lead
LFI LE PCF PS UDR RN
N/a 10 Oct 2025 Second Lecornu government formed
Ifop[8] 7–8 Oct 2025 1,386 1% 24% 4% – 14% – 12% 3% 1% 35% 4% 2% 11%
1% 8% 19% 3% – 13% – 11% 2.5% 1% 36% 3.5% 2% 19%
1% 10% 17% 3% – 13% – 11% 2% 1% 36% 4% 2% 19%
OpinionWay[9] 6–7 Oct 2025 1,012 2% 24% – – 16% – 13% – – 34% 5% 6% 10%
2% 13% 13% – – 15% – 13% – – 33% 5% 6% 18%
2% 9% 18% – – 14% – 12% – – 33% 6% 6% 15%
N/a 5–6 Oct 2025 First Lecornu government dissolved
N/a 8–9 Sep 2025 Bayrou government dissolved; First Lecornu government formed
Ifop[10] 5–8 Sep 2025 1,089 1.5% 24% 5% – 14% – 12% 2.5% 2% 34% 3.5% 1.5% 10%
1% 9% 19% 3% – 14% – 12% 2% 2% 33% 4% 1% 14%
Cluster17[11] 5–7 Sep 2025 1,133 1% 25% 5.5% – 14% 1% 13% 2% 1.5% 29% 4% 4% 4%
1% 11% 16% 3% – 13% 1% 13% 2% 1.5% 29% 4.5% 5% 13%
1% 14% 14% 3% – 12.5% 1% 12% 3% 1.5% 29% 4% 5% 15%
Harris[12] 4–5 Sep 2025 2,017 1% 26% 6% – 16% – 10% – – 33% 5% 3% 7%
1% 10% 19% 4% – 16% – 10% – – 33% 5% 3% 14%
Ifop[13] 29 Aug–1 Sep 2025 1,369 1% 25% 5% – 15% – 13% 2% 1.5% 33% 4% 0.5% 8%
1% 11% 15% 4% – 15% – 13% 3% 1.5% 32% 3.5% 1% 17%
Elabe[14] 28–29 Aug 2025 1,563 2% 23.5% 6.5% – 14% – 10.5% 2.5% – 31.5% 5% 4.5% 8.0%
1.5% 10% 16.5% 5% – 13.5% – 10.5% 3% – 31% 4.5% 4.5% 14.5%
Elabe[15] 3–5 Jun 2025 1,496 2% 21% 6.5% – 15.5% – 10% 3.5% – 32.5% 3% 6% 11.5%
1.5% 10% 16% 3.5% – 15.5% – 10.5% 3% – 33% 2.5% 4.5% 17%
Ifop[16] 3–4 Jun 2025 1,385 0.5% 21% 7% – 18% – 11% 2% 1% 1% 35% 2% 1.5% 14%
1% 11% 13% 4% – 18% – 11% 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 35% 2% 1.5% 17%
0.5% 9% 5% 3% 12% 3% – 16% – 10% 2% 1% 0.5% 34% 2.5% 1.5% 18%
Ifop[17] 5–6 Feb 2025 1,377 1% 14% 13% 2% – 15% – 13% 1% 1% 1% 35% 3% 1% 21%
1.5% 8% 19% 2.5% – 15% – 12% 1% 1% 0.5% 35% 3% 1.5% 16%
N/a 4–13 Dec 2024 Barnier government dissolved; Bayrou government formed
N/a 5 Sep 2024 Beginning of French political crisis: Attal government dissolved; Barnier government formed
2024 Election Results[18] 30 Jun 2024 N/a 1.14% 28.21% 1.57% 0.57% 21.28% 1.22% 6.57% 3.60% 0.28% 3.96% 29.26% 0.75% 1.60% 1.05%

Notes

References

  1. ^ "French Legislative Election, 2029". PoliGlove.
  2. ^ Pineau, Elizabeth (26 August 2025). "France plunges back into crisis after PM Bayrou's confidence-vote backfires". Reuters. Retrieved 30 August 2025.
  3. ^ Chrisafis, Angelique (27 August 2025). "French prime minister's confidence vote and its possible consequences". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 30 August 2025.
  4. ^ Dupont, Laureline (26 June 2024). "Quel gouvernement après le 7 juillet ? Les trois scénarios secrets sur la table de Macron". L'Express. Archived from the original on 29 June 2024. Retrieved 30 June 2024.
  5. ^ "What Do France's Surprise Election Results Mean for the Far Right? | Council on Foreign Relations". www.cfr.org. Retrieved 23 October 2024. ... to keep the government functioning until July 2025, the next time that general elections can be held.
  6. ^ "National Rally bets on early election". Brussels Signal. 7 October 2024. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
  7. ^ "Elections: France National Assembly 2017 (first round)". Election Guide. International Foundation for Electoral Systems. 11 June 2017. Archived from the original on 15 August 2020. Retrieved 16 June 2022.
  8. ^ "Les intentions de vote en cas d'élections législatives" (PDF). Ifop (in French). pp. 5, 6, 11, 16. Retrieved 9 October 2025.
  9. ^ "Les intentions de vote aux élections législatives" (PDF). OpinionWay (in French). pp. 6, 7, 10, 13. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 October 2025. Retrieved 8 October 2025.
  10. ^ "Les intentions de vote en cas d'élections législatives" (PDF). Ifop (in French). pp. 5, 6, 10. Retrieved 9 September 2025.
  11. ^ "Intentions de vote aux élections législatives" (PDF). Ifop (in French). pp. 5, 9, 13. Retrieved 10 September 2025.
  12. ^ "SONDAGE - Législatives : le RN largement en tête devant la gauche en cas de nouvelle dissolution, les macronistes en grande difficulté". Challenges (in French). Retrieved 7 September 2025.
  13. ^ "Les intentions de vote en cas d'élections législatives" (PDF). Ifop (in French). pp. 6, 10. Retrieved 2 September 2025.
  14. ^ "Les Français et les élections législatives" (PDF). Elabe (in French). pp. 7, 10. Retrieved 30 August 2025.
  15. ^ "Les Français et les élections législatives" (PDF). Elabe (in French). pp. 7–8. Retrieved 30 August 2025.
  16. ^ "Le regard des Français sur la dissolution du 9 juin 2024 : retour sur l'évènement et perspectives législatives en cas de nouvelles élections" (PDF). Ifop (in French). p. 27. Retrieved 6 June 2025.
  17. ^ "Current election polls from Ifop" (PDF). Current election polls from Ifop. Retrieved 25 March 2025.
  18. ^ https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html Ministry of the Interior
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