Next Madrilenian regional election

Next Madrilenian regional election
No later than 23 May 2027
All 143[a] seats in the Assembly of Madrid
72 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Isabel Díaz Ayuso Manuela Bergerot Óscar López
Party PP MM–VQ PSOE
Leader since 13 January 2019 21 November 2023 2 February 2025
Last election 70 seats, 47.3% 27 seats, 18.4% 27 seats, 18.2%
Current seats 70 27 27
Seats needed In majority 41 41
 
Leader José Antonio Fúster
Party Vox
Leader since 9 October 2024
Last election 11 seats, 7.3%
Current seats 11
Seats needed 57
Incumbent President

Isabel Díaz Ayuso
PP



A regional election will be held in the Community of Madrid no later than Sunday, 23 May 2027, to elect the 14th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 143[a] seats in the Assembly will be up for election. If customary practice is maintained, it will be held concurrently with regional elections in at least five other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Overview

Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[2]

Electoral system

Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they are not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote.[3][4][5]

The Assembly of Madrid is entitled to one seat per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000. All members are elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes (which includes blank ballots) being applied regionally.[3][6] As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly would be entitled to 143 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2025).[a]

The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occur after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term will be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.[7][8]

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Madrid expires four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the fifty-fifth day prior to the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).[3][9][10] The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which is 23 May 2027.

The regional president has the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the parliament's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution.[11][12] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called, which will be held on the first Sunday following the fifty-fourth day after the call.[13] Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their original four-year term.[11][13][14]

Current parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.[15]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group
of the Assembly of Madrid 		PP 70 70
More Madrid Parliamentary Group MM 24 27
VQ 3
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 27 27
Vox Parliamentary Group in Madrid Vox 11 11

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[7][16] Amendments to the electoral law in 2024 increased requirements for a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[17]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Vote % Seats
PP
List
 Isabel Díaz Ayuso Conservatism
Christian democracy 		47.3% 70 [18]
MM–VQ
List
 Manuela Bergerot Progressivism
Participatory democracy
Green politics 		18.4% 27 [19]
PSOE
List
 Óscar López Social democracy 18.2% 27 [20]
[21]
Vox
List
 José Antonio Fúster Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		7.3% 11 [22]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 May 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 72 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (68 in the 2023 election).

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout
SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 1] 19 Mar 2026 ? ? ?
73/74 		?
26/27 		?
27/28 		?
16/17 		?
0 		– – – ?
Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 2] 11 Nov 2025 ? ? ?
70/71 		?
21/22 		?
28/29 		?
13/14 		?
0 		– – – ?
Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 3] 10 Sep 2025 ? ? 48.8
71/72 		?
21/22 		?
29/30 		?
12 		– – – – ?
NC Report/La Razón[p 4] 16–31 May 2025 500 ? 49.9
73 		?
25 		?
26 		?
11 		– – – – ?
Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 5] 28 May 2025 ? ? ?
73/74 		?
19/20 		?
30/31 		?
11 		– – – – ?
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 6] 28–30 Apr 2025 1,200 ? 49.3
72 		12.6
18 		21.7
32 		9.3
13 		3.6
0 		0.4
0 		– – 27.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 7] 14–28 Apr 2025 1,189 ? 49.4
72/73 		14.8
20/21 		20.4
29/30 		8.5
12 		3.3
0 		– – – 29.0
SyM Consulting[p 8][p 9] 22–25 Apr 2025 1,100 64.5 52.7
76 		15.7
22/23 		16.0
23 		9.6
13/14 		3.4
0 		0.4
0 		– – 36.7
GAD3/ABC[p 10] 15–24 Apr 2025 1,013 ? 47.0
70 		12.7
18 		22.4
33 		9.4
14 		4.8
0 		– – – 24.6
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 11] 28 Oct–27 Nov 2024 1,500 ? 45.9
66 		18.9
27 		18.7
27 		10.5
15 		3.9
0 		0.9
0 		– – 27.0
SyM Consulting[p 12][p 13] 18–21 Oct 2024 1,107 65.8 44.1
65 		22.2
32/33 		17.0
25 		8.7
12/13 		5.0
0 		0.6
0 		– – 21.9
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 N/a 52.5 40.7
(62) 		[b] 28.2
(42) 		10.7
(16) 		4.5
(0) 		1.1
(0) 		5.8
(8) 		5.1
(7) 		12.5
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 14] 26 Mar–29 Apr 2024 1,500 ? 44.0
63 		19.4
27 		22.9
33 		8.6
12 		2.2
0 		1.3
0 		– – 21.1
Data10/OKDiario[p 15] 27–29 Mar 2024 1,500 ? 47.3
69 		21.2
30 		17.6
25 		8.2
11 		2.9
0 		0.8
0 		– – 26.1
GAD3/PP[p 16] 21–27 Mar 2024 1,000 ? 51.0
74 		18.7
27 		17.6
25 		6.6
9 		2.7
0 		– – – 32.3
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 17] 27 Feb–25 Mar 2024 1,500 ? 43.2
63 		19.1
27 		23.2
33 		8.9
12 		1.8
0 		1.6
0 		– – 20.0
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 N/a 69.7 40.5
(56) 		[b] 27.8
(39) 		14.0
(19) 		[b] – 15.5
(21) 		– 12.7
EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 18] 28 May–7 Jul 2023 1,000 ? 46.8
70 		18.3
27 		19.1
28 		7.2
10 		4.5
0 		1.6
0 		– – 27.7
2023 regional election 28 May 2023 N/a 65.5 47.3
70 		18.4
27 		18.2
27 		7.3
11 		4.8
0 		1.6
0 		– – 28.9

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Seat total has been manually calculated by applying the electoral rules set out in the law, on the basis of the latest official population figures provided by the Spanish government as of 2026. As such, it should be deemed as a provisional, non-binding estimation. The definitive allocation will be determined by the election decree at the time of the parliament's dissolution.[1] The Assembly size was set at 135 seats for the previous election.
  2. ^ a b c d e f Within Sumar.
  3. ^ a b c Does not include non-resident citizens.
  4. ^ Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.

References

Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ "Ayuso y Almeida revalidarían su mayoría absoluta, según un sondeo de Sigma Dos". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 19 March 2026.
  2. ^ a b "El PP ampliaría su mayoría absoluta en Madrid y Ayuso sería la única líder en aprobar, según Sigma Dos". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 11 November 2025.
  3. ^ a b "Ayuso reforzaría su mayoría absoluta según una encuesta de Sigma Dos para Telemadrid". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 10 September 2025.
  4. ^ "Macroencuesta autonómica (I): corrupción y cloacas arrasan el poder territorial del PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 2 June 2025.
  5. ^ "Ayuso reforzaría su mayoría absoluta, según una encuesta de Sigma Dos para Telemadrid". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 28 May 2025.
  6. ^ a b c d "Ayuso ampliaría su mayoría absoluta dos escaños: la irrupción de Óscar López solo lograría hundir a Mónica García". El Español (in Spanish). 2 May 2025.
  7. ^ "Ayuso establece un nuevo techo con la izquierda bloqueada: alcanza los 73 escaños y Óscar López apenas aprovecha el hundimiento de Más Madrid y Podemos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 1 May 2025.
  8. ^ "Estimación Mayo 2025 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2027". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 6 May 2025.
  9. ^ "[A] COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 06/05/2025: PP 52,7% (76), PSOE 16,0% (23), MM-VQ 15,7% (22/23), VOX 9,6% (13/14), PODEMOS-IU-AV 3,4%, CS 0,4%". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 May 2025.
  10. ^ "Ayuso afianza su mayoría absoluta en la Comunidad de Madrid frente al retroceso de la izquierda". ABC (in Spanish). 2 May 2025.
  11. ^ "ElectoPanel (Madrid 30N): la derecha sube, Más Madrid supera al PSOE". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 November 2024.
  12. ^ "Estimación Octubre 2024 Comunidad de Madrid. Autonómicas 2027". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 22 October 2024.
  13. ^ "[A] COMUNIDAD DE MADRID. Encuesta SyM Consulting 22/10/2024: PP 44,1% (65), MM-VQ 22,2% (32/33), PSOE 17,0% (25), VOX 8,7% (12/13), PODEMOS-IU-AV 5,0%, CS 0,6%". Electograph (in Spanish). 22 October 2024.
  14. ^ "EP Com. Madrid (2My): Ayuso ganaría pero necesitaría a Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 May 2024.
  15. ^ "Sánchez pierde 2 diputados en Madrid tras el acoso fiscal a la pareja de Ayuso, que mantiene la mayoría". OKDiario (in Spanish). 31 March 2024.
  16. ^ "Una encuesta interna del PP de Ayuso catapulta a la presidenta a los 74 escaños". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). 2 April 2024.
  17. ^ "EP C. Madrid (31mar): Ayuso baja y no tendría absoluta, la izquierda mejora". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 March 2024.
  18. ^ "ElectoPanel Com. Madrid (9JL): Lobato adelanta a Mónica". Electomanía (in Spanish). 9 July 2023.
  19. ^ a b "Tendencias y demandas municipales y autonómicas. Comunidad de Madrid (Estudio nº 3503. Marzo 2025)". CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 2025.
  20. ^ "Ayuso aprueba en solitario entre los líderes autonómicos de Madrid y Óscar López pincha". ABC (in Spanish). 2 May 2025.

Other

  1. ^ Real Decreto 1117/2025, de 3 de diciembre, por el que se declaran oficiales las cifras de población resultantes de la revisión del Padrón municipal referidas al 1 de enero de 2025 (Royal Decree 1117/2025). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 3 December 2025. Retrieved 12 December 2025.
  2. ^ Statute (1983), art. 9.
  3. ^ a b c Statute (1983), art. 10.
  4. ^ LECM (1986), art. 2.
  5. ^ LOREG (1985), arts. 2–3.
  6. ^ LECM (1986), art. 18.
  7. ^ a b LECM (1986), arts. 10 & 18.
  8. ^ LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48.
  9. ^ LECM (1986), art. 8.
  10. ^ LOREG (1985), art. 42.
  11. ^ a b Statute (1983), art. 21.
  12. ^ LAMPC (1990), art. 1.
  13. ^ a b Statute (1983), art. 18.
  14. ^ LAMPC (1990), art. 2.
  15. ^ "Grupos Parlamentarios" (in Spanish). Assembly of Madrid. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
  16. ^ LOREG (1985), art. 44.
  17. ^ LOREG (1985), art. 44 bis.
  18. ^ Baena, Paula (28 May 2025). "Ayuso confirma que se presentará a la reelección en 2027: «No tengo previsto dejarlo»". El Debate (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 December 2025.
  19. ^ "Manuela Bergerot será la nueva portavoz de Más Madrid en la Asamblea tras la salida de García a Sanidad" (in Spanish). Madrid: Europa Press. 20 November 2023. Retrieved 30 November 2023.
  20. ^ "Lobato dimite como secretario general del PSOE-M" (in Spanish). Madrid: Europa Press. 27 November 2024. Retrieved 27 November 2024.
  21. ^ "Óscar López es elegido secretario general del PSOE de Madrid con el 83,37% de los votos" (in Spanish). Madrid: Servimedia. 2 February 2025. Retrieved 9 February 2025.
  22. ^ "Vox sustituye a Rocío Monasterio por José Antonio Fúster en Madrid pero la mantiene como portavoz en la Asamblea" (in Spanish). Madrid: RTVE. 9 October 2024. Retrieved 27 November 2024.

Bibliography

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