Next Basque regional election
No later than 21 May 2028
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All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament 38 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A regional election will be held in the Basque Country no later than Sunday, 21 May 2028, to elect the 14th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.
Overview
Under the 1979 Statute of Autonomy, the Basque Parliament is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari.[1]
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they are not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote.[2][3][4]
The Basque Parliament is entitled to 75 seats. All members are elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes (which includes blank ballots) being applied in each constituency.[2][5] The use of the electoral method may result in a higher effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[6]
The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occur after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term will be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.[7][8]
Election date
The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication.[2][9][10] The previous election was held on 21 April 2024, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 21 April 2028. The election decree shall be published in the BOPV no later than 28 March 2028, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 21 May 2028.
The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament's reconvening, the chamber is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[11]
Current parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.[12][13]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group | EAJ/PNV | 27 | 27 | ||
| EH Bildu Parliamentary Group | EH Bildu | 27 | 27 | ||
| Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group | PSE–EE (PSOE) | 12 | 12 | ||
| Basque People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 7 | 7 | ||
| Mixed Group | EzAn–IU | 1 | 2 | ||
| Vox | 1 | ||||
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[14][15] Amendments to the electoral law in 2024 increased requirements for a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[16]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| EAJ/PNV | List
|
Imanol Pradales | Basque nationalism Christian democracy Social democracy |
34.8% | 27 | ||||
| EH Bildu | List
|
Pello Otxandiano | Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism |
32.1% | 27 | ||||
| PSE–EE (PSOE) |
List
|
Eneko Andueza | Social democracy | 14.1% | 12 | ||||
| PP | List
|
Javier de Andrés | Conservatism Christian democracy |
9.2% | 7 | ||||
| Sumar | List
|
Alba García | Progressivism Left-wing populism Green politics |
3.3% | 1 | [17] | |||
| Vox | List
|
Amaia Martínez | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism |
2.0% | 1 | ||||
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aztiker/EH Bildu[p 1] | 24 Dec 2025 | 2,990 | ? | ? 27 |
? 28 |
? 11 |
? 7 |
– | – | ? 2 |
? |
| Ikerfel/GPS[p 2] | 11–14 Nov 2025 | 3,030 | 60.2 | 36.2 29 |
31.7 27 |
13.6 11 |
8.4 6 |
3.0 1 |
1.9 0 |
3.2 1 |
4.5 |
| Ikerfel/GPS[p 3] | 17–20 Jun 2025 | 3,030 | 59.3 | 36.1 28 |
31.3 28 |
13.9 11 |
8.9 7 |
2.5 0 |
2.0 0 |
3.1 1 |
4.8 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 4] | 16–31 May 2025 | 350 | ? | ? 26 |
? 28 |
? 11 |
? 8 |
– | ? 1 |
? 1 |
? |
| Ikerfel/GPS[p 5] | 28–31 Jan 2025 | 3,030 | 58.2 | 35.3 28 |
32.0 27 |
14.0 11 |
9.2 8 |
2.5 0 |
2.5 0 |
2.0 1 |
3.3 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 6] | 29 Dec–28 Jan 2025 | 1,450 | ? | 34.5 28 |
31.9 28 |
12.9 10 |
9.1 7 |
2.9 0 |
3.5 2 |
1.6 0 |
2.6 |
| Ikerfel/GPS[p 7] | 5–8 Nov 2024 | 3,030 | 60.2 | 35.2 28 |
32.0 27 |
14.6 13 |
9.1 7 |
2.6 0 |
2.2 0 |
2.0 0 |
3.2 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 8] | 29 Sep–27 Oct 2024 | 1,450 | ? | 34.0 27 |
31.8 27 |
12.4 10 |
9.5 7 |
3.4 1 |
4.5 3 |
1.7 0 |
2.2 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | N/a | 48.8 | 22.4 (17) |
26.3 (22) |
26.0 (23) |
11.6 (9) |
3.3 (2) |
3.2 (1) |
2.7 (1) |
0.3 |
| 2024 regional election | 21 Apr 2024 | N/a | 60.0 | 34.8 27 |
32.1 27 |
14.1 12 |
9.2 7 |
3.3 1 |
2.2 0 |
2.0 1 |
2.7 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PNV | Lead | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ikerfel/GPS[p 2] | 11–14 Nov 2025 | 3,030 | 24.0 | 18.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 30.4 | 10.7 | 5.1 |
| Ikerfel/GPS[p 3] | 17–20 Jun 2025 | 3,030 | 23.2 | 18.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 29.6 | 12.4 | 5.0 |
| CIS[p 9] | 7–31 Mar 2025 | 1,023 | 27.2 | 18.8 | 12.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 20.3 | 7.4 | 8.4 |
| Ikerfel/GPS[p 5] | 28–31 Jan 2025 | 3,030 | 22.1 | 19.6 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 28.1 | 14.1 | 2.5 |
| Ikerfel/GPS[p 7] | 5–8 Nov 2024 | 3,030 | 22.9 | 20.1 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 29.4 | 11.6 | 2.8 |
| 2024 EP election[a] | 9 Jun 2024 | N/a | 13.1 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | N/a | 49.1 | 0.2 |
| 2024 regional election[a] | 21 Apr 2024 | N/a | 21.6 | 20.0 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | N/a | 37.5 | 1.6 |
Preferred Lehendakari
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become lehendakari.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Other/ None/ Not care |
Lead | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pradales PNV |
Otxan. EH Bildu |
Andueza PSE–EE |
De Andrés PP | ||||||
| CIS[b][p 9] | 7–31 Mar 2025 | 1,023 | 25.0 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 47.0 | 13.6 |
Notes
- ^ a b Does not include non-resident citizens.
- ^ Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.
References
Opinion poll sources
- ^ "EH Bildu ganaría en la CAV y subiría en Nafarroa, según un sondeo de Aztiker". La Razón (in Spanish). 24 December 2025.
- ^ a b "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 1 December 2025.
- ^ a b "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Junio 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 27 June 2025.
- ^ "Macroencuesta Nc Report (II): Los socios sufren la corrupción". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 June 2025.
- ^ a b "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Febrero 2025)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 7 February 2025.
- ^ "EP Euskadi (31ene): el PNV sube y seguiría como primera fuerza". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 January 2025.
- ^ a b "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2024)" (PDF). Basque Government (in Spanish). 15 November 2024.
- ^ "ElectoPanel Euskadi (oct'24): PNV y EH Bildu empatan en escaños, Podemos se come a Sumar". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 October 2024.
- ^ a b "Tendencias y demandas municipales y autonómicas. País Vasco (Estudio nº 3503. Marzo 2025)". CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 2025.
Other
- ^ Statute (1979), arts. 25 & 27–28.
- ^ a b c Statute (1979), art. 26.
- ^ LEPV (1990), arts. 2–3.
- ^ LOREG (1985), arts. 2–3.
- ^ LEPV (1990), arts. 9–12.
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Dublin: Trinity College Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ LEPV (1990), art. 65.
- ^ LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48.
- ^ LEPV (1990), art. 46.
- ^ LOREG (1985), art. 42.
- ^ LGV (1981), arts. 6 & 50–51.
- ^ Lozano, Carles. "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (desde 1980)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2024.
- ^ "Parlamentarios y Órganos. Grupos. Composición. Actual - XIII Legislatura (2024-)" (in Spanish). Basque Parliament. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
- ^ LEPV (1990), art. 53.
- ^ LOREG (1985), art. 44.
- ^ LOREG (1985), art. 44 bis.
- ^ "Alba García Martín, elegida coordinadora general de Sumar Mugimendua con un 85% de apoyo". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Bilbao. Europa Press. 30 November 2024. Retrieved 19 December 2024.
Bibliography
- Ley Orgánica 3/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para el País Vasco (Organic Law 3/1979). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 18 December 1979 [version as of 22 December 1979]. BOE-A-1979-30177. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
- Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno (Law 7/1981). Official Gazette of the Basque Country (in Spanish). 30 June 1981 [version as of 26 December 2022]. BOE-A-2012-5927. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
- Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5/1985). Official State Gazette (in Spanish). 19 June 1985 [version as of 14 July 2025]. BOE-A-1985-11672. Retrieved 5 October 2025.
- Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco (Law 5/1990). Official Gazette of the Basque Country (in Spanish). 15 June 1990 [version as of 7 January 2016]. BOE-A-2012-2859. Retrieved 12 March 2026.