Next Dutch general election
By May 2030
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All 150 seats in the House of Representatives 76 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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General elections are scheduled to be held in the Netherlands in May 2030 to elect the members of the House of Representatives, but may be held at an earlier date if a snap election is called.
Background
The 2025 Dutch general election resulted in losses for all parties in the Schoof cabinet. Democrats 66 (D66) obtained 26 seats to became the largest party in the House of Representatives for the first time, along with Party for Freedom (PVV). GroenLinks (GL) and the Labour Party (PvdA) are set to merge their parties in 2026.[1]
Regular general elections in the Netherlands are held in March, at least four years after the previous general election. However, due to municipal elections already taking place in March 2030, general elections would instead be held in May 2030.[2]
Electoral system
Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[3]
Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[4][5]
Opinion polls
Seats
There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
D66 | PVV | VVD | GL-PvdA | CDA | JA21 | FvD | BBB | Denk | SGP | PvdD | CU | SP | 50+ | Volt | Lead | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Dutch municipal elections | |||||||||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | 13 Mar 2026 | – | 25 | 17 | 18 | 23 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | [6] |
| Ipsos I&O | 6–9 Mar 2026 | 1,802 | 24 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | [7] |
| Peil.nl | 6 Mar 2026 | – | 27 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | [8] |
| Mona Keijzer leaves the BBB and continues as an independent MP[9] | |||||||||||||||||||
| The Jetten cabinet is sworn in[10] | |||||||||||||||||||
| Verian | 20–23 Feb 2026 | 1,319 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | [11] |
| Peil.nl | 21 Feb 2026 | – | 27 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | [12] |
| Caroline van der Plas hands over leadership of BBB to Henk Vermeer[13] | |||||||||||||||||||
| Ipsos I&O | 13–16 Feb 2026 | 1,802 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | [14] |
| Peil.nl | 8 Feb 2026 | – | 27 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | [15] |
| Ipsos I&O | 30 Jan – 2 Feb 2026 | 2,614 | 26 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | [16] |
| Verian | 23–26 Jan 2026 | 1,269 | 26 | 18 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | [17] |
| Peil.nl | 25 Jan 2026 | – | 27 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | [18] |
| Seven MPs leave the PVV to form the Markuszower Group[19] | |||||||||||||||||||
| Ipsos I&O | 16–19 Jan 2026 | 2,260 | 28 | 23 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | [20] |
| Peil.nl | 17 Jan 2026 | – | 28 | 17 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | [21] |
| Peil.nl | 19 Dec 2025 | – | 28 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | [22] |
| Ipsos I&O | 12–15 Dec 2025 | 1,958 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | [23] |
| Peil.nl | 29 Nov 2025 | – | 28 | 23 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | [24] |
| Verian | 21–24 Nov 2025 | 1,550 | 31 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | [25] |
| Peil.nl | 22 Nov 2025 | – | 28 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | [26] |
| Peil.nl | 7–8 Nov 2025 | – | 28 | 24 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | [27] |
| Jesse Klaver succeeds Frans Timmermans as leader of GL-PvdA[28] | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 election | 29 Oct 2025 | – | 26 | 26 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Tie | |
Vote share
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
D66 | PVV | VVD | GL-PvdA | CDA | JA21 | FvD | BBB | Denk | SGP | PvdD | CU | SP | 50+ | Volt | Lead | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos I&O | 6–9 Mar 2026 | 1,802 | 15.2% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | [7] |
| Verian | 20–23 Feb 2026 | 1,319 | 13.8% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 14.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | [29] |
| Verian | 23–26 Jan 2026 | 1,269 | 17.0% | 11.7% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | [30] |
| Verian | 21–24 Nov 2025 | 1,550 | 20.3% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 6.0% | [31] |
| 2025 election | 29 Oct 2025 | – | 16.94% | 16.66% | 14.24% | 12.79% | 11.79% | 5.95% | 4.54% | 2.65% | 2.37% | 2.25% | 2.08% | 1.90% | 1.89% | 1.43% | 1.10% | 0.28% |
Notes
References
- ^ "De leden hebben besloten: PvdA en GroenLinks gaan volgend jaar fuseren" [The members have decided: PvdA and GroenLinks will merge next year]. NOS (in Dutch). 12 June 2025. Retrieved 11 November 2025.
- ^ "Tweede Kamer: hoe wordt de datum voor reguliere verkiezingen bepaald?" [House of Representatives: How is the date for regular elections determined?]. Kiesraad (in Dutch). Retrieved 11 November 2025.
- ^ "Zetelverdeling over partijen". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
- ^ Nederland, Parlementsverkiezingen, 15 maart 2017: Eindrapport (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 7 June 2017. Archived from the original on 24 October 2020. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
- ^ "Zetelverdeling over kandidaten". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (15 March 2026). "Coalitiepartijen verliezen 4 zetels" [Coalition government lose 4 seats] (in Dutch). Retrieved 15 March 2026.
- ^ a b Kanne, Peter; Schelde, Asher van der (11 March 2026). "Politieke peiling maart plus AOW" [Political poll March plus AOW] (PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 12 March 2026.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (8 March 2026). "Nieuwe peiling accentueert de electorale herverdeling op rechts" [New poll highlights electoral shift to the right]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 8 March 2026.
- ^ "Mona Keijzer verlaat BBB en gaat als zelfstandig Kamerlid verder" [Mona Keijzer leaves BBB and will continue as an independent Member of Parliament]. NOS (in Dutch). 23 February 2026. Retrieved 8 March 2026.
- ^ "Jetten government sworn in". Government of the Netherlands. 23 February 2026. Retrieved 8 March 2026.
- ^ EenVandaag (24 February 2026). "Verlies D66 en CDA zet door in eerste zetelpeiling met nieuw kabinet, VVD blijft wél stabiel" [Losses for D66 and CDA continue in first seat poll with new cabinet, VVD remains steady]. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Retrieved 24 February 2026.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (21 February 2026). "VVD-kiezers weifelend over nieuwe regering" [VVD voters uncertain about new government]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 21 February 2026.
- ^ "Caroline van der Plas stopt als leider BBB, blijft wel Kamerlid" [Caroline van der Plas steps down as leader of BBB, but remains a Member of Parliament]. NOS (in Dutch). 20 February 2026. Retrieved 21 November 2025.
- ^ Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (18 February 2026). "Politieke peiling februari" [Political poll February] (PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 18 February 2026.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (8 February 2026). "VVD-kiezers minder enthousiast over nieuwe regering" [VVD voters less enthusiastic about new government]. maurice.nl (in Dutch).
- ^ Koppel, Maartje van de (2 February 2026). "Nieuwe coalitie: veel vertrouwen in het centrum, weinig op de flanken". Ipsos I&O Publiek (in Dutch). Retrieved 3 February 2026.
- ^ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (27 January 2026). "D66 daalt in nieuwe zetelpeiling, kiezers terug naar GroenLinks-PvdA: 'Nieuw kabinet niet links genoeg'" [D66 drops in new seat poll, voters back to GroenLinks-PvdA: 'New cabinet not left-wing enough']. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Retrieved 27 January 2026.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (25 January 2026). "Electoraal effect afscheiding PVV-fractie" [Electoral effect of PVV faction split]. maurice.nl (in Dutch).
- ^ "Opstand tegen Wilders: zeven PVV'ers beginnen eigen fractie" [Rebellion against Wilders: seven PVV members start their own faction]. NOS (in Dutch). 20 January 2026. Retrieved 25 January 2026.
- ^ Kanne, Peter; Van de Koppel, Maartje; Van der Schelde, Asher (22 January 2026). "Formatie & vertrouwen Ipsos I&O 20 januari 2026" [Formation & confidence Ipsos I&O 20 January 2026] (PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 23 January 2026.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (18 January 2026). "PVV zakt verder weg ten gunste van FVD" [PVV continues to decline in favor of FVD]. maurice.nl (in Dutch).
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (21 December 2025). "PVV zakt verder weg naar 20 zetels" [PVV drops further to 20 seats]. maurice.nl (in Dutch).
- ^ Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (17 December 2025). "Politieke peiling Ipsos I&O 15 december 2025" [Political poll Ipsos I&O 15 December 2025] (PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 19 December 2025.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (30 November 2025). "Minderheidscoalitie D66, CDA en VVD voor groot deel kiezers acceptabel" [Minority coalition D66, CDA and VVD acceptable to a large part of voters]. maurice.nl (in Dutch).
- ^ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (25 November 2025). "GroenLinks-PvdA en PVV verliezen in eerste zetelpeiling na verkiezingen, D66 duidelijk de grootste" [GroenLinks-PvdA and PVV lose in first seat poll after elections, D66 clearly the largest]. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Retrieved 25 November 2025.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (23 November 2025). "Geworstel rondom formatie duurt voort" [Struggles surrounding formation continue]. maurice.nl (in Dutch).
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (9 November 2025). "De onontwarbare knoop na de verkiezingen" (in Dutch).
- ^ "Jesse Klaver volgt Frans Timmermans op als leider van GroenLinks-PvdA" [Jesse Klaver succeeds Frans Timmermans as leader of GroenLinks-PvdA]. NU.nl (in Dutch). 3 November 2025. Retrieved 11 November 2025.
- ^ Zandanel, Flip; Koenen, Bart (25 February 2026). "Rapport Verian zetelpeiling februari 2026" [Report Verian seat poll February 2026] (PDF). Verian (in Dutch). Retrieved 25 February 2026.
- ^ Zandanel, Flip; Koenen, Bart (28 January 2026). "Rapport Verian zetelpeiling januari 2026" [Report Verian seat poll January 2026] (PDF). Verian (in Dutch). Retrieved 28 January 2026.
- ^ Ait Moha, Ahmed; Koenen, Bart; Zandanel, Flip (26 November 2025). "Rapport Verian zetelpeiling november 2025" [Report Verian seat poll November 2025] (PDF). Verian (in Dutch). Retrieved 19 December 2025.