2026 Wisconsin Senate election

2026 Wisconsin State Senate election
November 3, 2026
17 of 33 seats in the Wisconsin Senate
17 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Devin LeMahieu
(retiring) 		Dianne Hesselbein
Party Republican Democratic
Leader since January 4, 2021 December 1, 2023
Leader's seat 9th–Oostburg 27th–Middleton
Last election 6 seats, 42.74% 10 seats, 56.60%
Current seats 18 15
Seats needed 2
Seats up 12 5
Map of the incumbents:
     Republican incumbent      Republican incumbent retiring
     Democratic incumbent
     Democratic and Republican incumbent
     No incumbent
     No election
Incumbent President

Mary Felzkowski
Republican



The 2026 Wisconsin Senate election will be held on November 3, 2026. Seventeen of the 33 seats in the Wisconsin Senate are up for election—those in the odd-numbered districts. Republicans currently hold 12 of these 17 seats and have an 18–15 majority in the Senate overall.

This election will be significantly influenced by the legislative maps drawn as a result of the Wisconsin Supreme Court decision in Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission, which declared the previous legislative district map to be unconstitutional on December 22, 2023. The court was in the process of selecting a remedial plan, when the legislature chose to embrace the remedial map proposal from Governor Tony Evers. Evers signed the plan into law on February 19, 2024.[1]

This will be the first state Senate elections held in these seats under the new redistricting plan. Under the new maps, control of the Senate could go to either party due to Democratic gains in the 2024 Wisconsin Senate election.[2]

Background

Partisan background

In the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won 9 districts, while Democratic nominee Kamala Harris won 8 districts. Republicans currently hold three districts where Harris won in 2024: District 5 (Harris +5.81%), represented by Rob Hutton; District 17 (Harris +1.03%), represented by Howard Marklein; and District 21 (Harris +1.23%), represented by Van Wanggaard.

Redistricting

This election will be significantly affected by the legislative maps drawn as a result of the Wisconsin Supreme Court decision in Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission, which declared the previous legislative district map to be unconstitutional on December 22, 2023.[3] The court was in the process of selecting a remedial plan, when the legislature chose to embrace the remedial map proposal from Governor Tony Evers. Evers signed the plan into law on February 19, 2024.[4]

2024 elections

In 2024, Democrats gained four seats in the Senate under the new maps, with the expectation they would not be able to win a majority then because only even-numbered seats were up for election that year.[5][6] During the 2024 campaign, both parties spent heavily on the competitive races in that cycle.[7] As a result of the election, where Democrats gained four seats, Democrats were put on a path to win a majority in 2026, where three senate districts could determine the majority.[8][9]

Democrats last won a majority of seats in the state senate in the 2012 recall elections, but they last seated a majority of seats in a session after the 2008 elections.

Campaign

Primary elections

As part of their effort to gain control of the Senate, the Senate Democratic caucus has endorsed several candidates in competitive districts in an attempt to clear the field for their preferred candidates.[10] In the 5th district the State Senate Democratic Campaign Committee has supported representative Robyn Vining over businesswoman Sarah Harrison, who withdrew from the race in early January citing a lack of funding.[11][12] In the 17th district, one candidate, business owner Matt Roboin, declined to run, citing the Committee's endorsement of representative Jenna Jacobson for the nomination.[13] In the 21st district, city official Trevor Yung is running unopposed for the nomination after being endorsed by the Committee.[10] This strategy received criticism from candidates running in the various districts, who argued that it was undemocratic for the party campaign arm to intervene in primary elections and give support to certain candidates over others.[13][11]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Tossup January 22, 2026

Summary

Party
(majority caucus shading)
 Total
Democratic Republican
Last election (2024) 6 10 16
Total after last election (2024) 15 18 33
Total before this election 15 18 33
Up for election 5 12 17
of which: Incumbent retiring 0 3 3
Vacated 0 0 0
Open 0 3 3
Unopposed 0 0 0

Outgoing incumbents

Retiring

Incumbents and candidates

Dist. 2024
Pres.[19] 		Incumbent This election
Member Party First elected Status Declared candidate(s)
01 R+20.3 André Jacque Rep. 2018 TBD
  • ▌Sean Grorich (Dem.)[20]
  • ▌Jacob VandenPlas (Rep.)[21]
03 D+27.7 Tim Carpenter Dem. 2002 TBD
05 D+5.9 Rob Hutton Rep. 2022 Incumbent retiring.[15]
07 D+28.5 Chris Larson Dem. 2010 TBD
09 R+15.7 Devin LeMahieu Rep. 2014 Incumbent retiring.[25]
11 R+28.0 Stephen Nass Rep. 2014 Incumbent retiring.[16]
13 R+30.9 John Jagler Rep. 2021 (special) TBD
  • ▌Jeff Bierman (Ind.)[28]
  • ▌Sasha Ripley (Dem.)[29]
15 D+7.7 Mark Spreitzer Dem. 2022 TBD
  • ▌Christopher Dean (Ind.)[30]
17 D+1.0 Howard Marklein Rep. 2014 TBD
19 R+25.8 Rachael Cabral-Guevara Rep. 2022 TBD
  • ▌Emily Tseffos (Dem.)[34]
21 D+1.2 Van H. Wanggaard Rep. 2010[a]
2014 		Incumbent retiring.[17]
  • ▌Trevor Jung (Dem.)[35]
23 R+35.9 None (open seat) No incumbent
25 R+13.6 Romaine Quinn Rep. 2022 Running for 23rd district
27 D+52.7 Dianne Hesselbein Dem. 2022 TBD
29 R+19.3 Cory Tomczyk Rep. 2022 TBD
  • ▌Gillian Battino (Dem.)[40]
31 D+2.2 Jeff Smith Dem. 2018 Incumbent running
Jesse James[b] Rep. 2022 Incumbent running
33 R+33.7 Chris Kapenga Rep. 2015 (special) TBD
  • ▌Mike Van Someren (Dem.)[43]

Race details

District 1 (Safe R)

In Wisconsin's 1st Senate district, the incumbent, André Jacque (R–New Franken), has not indicated whether he will run for re-election. He has represented the district since 2019, winning a contested primary in 2018, winning the 2018 general election, and then winning re-election in 2022. He ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for U.S. House of Representatives in Wisconsin's 8th congressional district in 2024. At this point, one Democratic candidate has announced to run for the seat, Sturgeon Bay small business owner Sean Grorich.[20][44]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 1st Senate district comprises all of Door and Kewaunee counties, as well as nearly all of Calumet County, much of northern and western Manitowoc County and eastern and southern Brown County, along with parts of southwest Outagamie County; it includes the cities of Sturgeon Bay and Chilton and parts of the cities of Appleton, Menasha, and Green Bay.[45] This is a Republican base district, with roughly 60% of the population living in precincts considered rural or exurban.[46] Other than a special election upset in 2018, the district has been in Republican control since 1977, though Democrats last contested this seat in 2022.

It is considered safe Republican with an estimated margin of 20+ percentage points.[19]

District 3 (Safe D)

In Wisconsin's 3rd Senate district, the incumbent, Tim Carpenter (D–Milwaukee), has not indicated whether he will run for re-election. He has represented the district since 2003, winning a contested primary in 2002, winning the 2002 general election, and then winning re-election five times. At this point, no Republican candidate has announced to run for the seat.

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 3rd Senate district comprises much of the south side of the city of Milwaukee, as well as the village of West Milwaukee and eastern parts of the cities of West Allis and Greenfield, all within central Milwaukee County.[47] This is a Democratic base district in the urban center of Milwaukee County.[46] Democrats have held the seat since 1935, and Republicans last contested this seat in 2022.

It is considered safe Democratic with an estimated margin of 20+ percentage points.[19]

District 5 (Lean D)

In Wisconsin's 5th Senate district, the incumbent, Rob Hutton (R–Brookfield), has announced that he will not run for re-election. He has represented the district since 2023, after winning the general election in 2022. At this point, state representative Robyn Vining (D–Wauwatosa) and Republican—Pewaukee small business owner Mike Roberts—have announced to run for the seat.[15][24][22]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 5th Senate district comprises parts of western Milwaukee County, and eastern Waukesha County. It includes the cities of Brookfield and Pewaukee, and the villages of Elm Grove and Pewaukee, as well as most of the cities of Wauwatosa and West Allis, and parts of the cities of Milwaukee and Waukesha.[48] These western Milwaukee suburbs and Waukesha-area exurbs were a Republican stronghold as recently as 2014, but have moved steadily away from the Republicans since the election of Donald Trump. The 5th Senate district is a top pickup target for Wisconsin Democrats in 2026.[15]

It is considered lean Democratic with an estimated margin of 5–10 percentage points.[19]

District 7 (Safe D)

In Wisconsin's 7th Senate district, the incumbent, Chris Larson (D–Milwaukee), has not indicated whether he will run for re-election. He has represented the district since 2011, after defeating a Democratic incumbent in the 2010 primary, winning the 2010 general election, and winning re-election three times. While serving as state senator, Larson ran unsuccessfully for Milwaukee County executive in 2016 and 2020. At this point, no Republican candidate has announced to run for the seat.

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 7th Senate district comprises eastern and southeastern Milwaukee County, including downtown, south side, and lakeshore areas of the city of Milwaukee, as well as the cities of Cudahy, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, and St. Francis, and part of the city of Greenfield. This is a Democratic base district in the urban center of Milwaukee County.[49] Democrats have held the seat since 1935, and Republicans last contested this seat in 2022.

It is considered safe Democratic with an estimated margin of 20+ percentage points.[19]

District 9 (Likely R)

In Wisconsin's 9th Senate district, the incumbent, Devin LeMahieu (R–Oostburg), is retiring[50]. He has represented the district since 2015, after winning the 2014 general election, and winning re-election in 2018 and 2022. He is also the current majority leader in the Senate. At this point, no Democratic candidate has announced to run for the seat.

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 9th Senate district comprises most of Sheboygan County and the parts of eastern and southern Manitowoc County and northeast Fond du Lac County. It contains the cities of Sheboygan, Manitowoc, Two Rivers, Plymouth, Kiel, and Sheboygan Falls, and the villages of Kohler, Oostburg, and Elkhart Lake.[51] This is a somewhat Republican district, containing a mix of rural and suburban populations.[46] Republicans have held the seat since 2003, and Democrats last contested this seat (excluding write-in campaigns) in 2018.

It is considered likely Republican with an estimated margin of 10–20 percentage points.[19]

District 11 (Safe R)

In Wisconsin's 11th Senate district, the incumbent, Stephen Nass (R–Whitewater), has announced he will not run for re-election.[16] He has represented the district since 2015, after winning the 2014 general election, and winning re-election in 2018 and 2022. Former state representative Ellen Schutt has announced a campaign to succeed Nass; no Democratic candidate has announced to run for the seat.

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 11th Senate district comprises most of Walworth County, most of Kenosha County, and southwest Racine County, along with parts of southeast Rock County. It contains the cities of Burlington, Delavan, Elkhorn, and Lake Geneva, and the villages of Clinton, Darien, East Troy, Genoa City, Paddock Lake, Sharon, Union Grove, Walworth, along with most of the village of Pleasant Prairie and part of the city of Kenosha.[52] This is a Republican base district with the vast majority of the population residing in rural or exurban precincts.[46] Republicans have held the seat since 1983, though Democrats last contested this seat in 2022.

It is considered safe Republican with an estimated margin of 20+ percentage points.[19]

District 13 (Safe R)

In Wisconsin's 13th Senate district, the incumbent, John Jagler (R–Watertown), has not indicated whether he will run for re-election. He has represented the district since 2021, winning a contested special primary in 2021, then winning a 2021 special election, and winning re-election in 2022. At this point, one Democratic candidate—Montello educator Sasha Ripley—and one independent candidate—Beaver Dam city councilmember Jeff Bierman—have announced to run for the seat.[29][28]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 13th Senate district comprises all of Green Lake and Marquette counties, along with most of Dodge County, western Fond du Lac County, and parts of northern Jefferson County, eastern Adams County, northeast Columbia County, and southwest Winnebago County. It includes the cities of Beaver Dam, Horicon, Markesan, Mayville, Montello, Princeton, Ripon, Watertown, and Waupun.[53] This is a Republican base district with the vast majority of the population residing in rural or exurban precincts.[46] Republicans have held the seat since 1981, and Democrats last contested this seat in 2018.

It is considered safe Republican with an estimated margin of 20+ percentage points.[19]

District 15 (Lean D)

In Wisconsin's 15th Senate district, the incumbent, Mark Spreitzer (D–Beloit), has not indicated whether he will run for re-election. He has represented the district since 2023, after winning the 2022 general election. At this point, no Republican candidate has announced to run for the seat.

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 15th Senate district comprises most of Rock County and parts of northwest Walworth County and southern Jefferson County. It includes the cities of Janesville, Beloit, Edgerton, Evansville, Milton, and Whitewater.[54] This is a somewhat Democratic district, containing a mix of urban, suburban, and rural populations.[46] Democrats have held the seat since 1999, though Republicans last contested this seat in 2022.

It is considered lean Democratic with an estimated margin of 5–10 percentage points.[19]

District 17 (Tilt D)

In Wisconsin's 17th Senate district, the incumbent, Howard Marklein (R–Spring Green), has not indicated whether he will run for re-election. He has represented the district since 2015, after winning the 2014 general election, and winning re-election in 2018 and 2022. At this point, three Democratic candidates have announced to run for the seat, state representative Jenna Jacobson (D–Oregon), New Glarus child care advocate Corrine Hendrickson, and Potosi small business owner Lisa White.[32][31][33]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 17th Senate district comprises all of Crawford, Grant, Green, Lafayette, and Iowa counties, as well as parts of southwest Dane County, western Rock County, and southern Vernon County. It includes the cities of Boscobel, Brodhead, Cuba City, Darlington, Dodgeville, Lancaster, Mineral Point, Monroe, Oregon, Platteville, Prairie du Chien, and Shullsburg.[55] This district has been held by Republicans since 1979, but under the 2024 map it is highly competitive, tilting Democratic, with a mix of suburban and significant rural populations.[46]

It is considered tilt Democratic with an estimated margin of 2–5 percentage points.[19]

District 19 (Safe R)

In Wisconsin's 19th Senate district, the incumbent, Rachael Cabral-Guevara (R–Fox Crossing), has not indicated whether she will run for re-election. She has represented the district since 2023, after winning the 2022 general election. At this point, one Democratic candidate has announced to run for the seat, rural organizer Emily Tseffos.[34]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 19th Senate district comprises all of Waushara County, most of Winnebago County, western Outagamie County, southern Waupaca County, and part of eastern Adams County and southeast Portage County.[56] This is a Republican base district containing mostly rural and exurban populations in north-central Wisconsin.[46] Republicans have held the seat since 1983, but Democrats last contested this seat in 2022.

It is considered safe Republican with an estimated margin of 20+ percentage points.[19]

District 21 (Pure Tossup)

In Wisconsin's 21st Senate district, the incumbent, Van H. Wanggaard (R–Racine), has announced he will not run for reelection.[17] He has represented the district since 2015, winning the 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, after previously winning the 2010 general election and losing a 2012 recall election. At this point, one Democratic candidate has announced to run for the seat, Racine transit director Trevor Jung.[35]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 21st Senate district comprises northeast Racine County and southwest Milwaukee County. It includes the city of Franklin, the northern half of the city of Racine, the western half of the city of Greenfield, and part of southwest Milwaukee, as well as the villages of Greendale, Hales Corners, Caledonia, Wind Point, and North Bay.[57] This was historically a highly competitive district, changing partisan control 7 times since 1990, but became safely Republican under the 2011 gerrymander, with Democrats last contesting this seat in 2018. Under the new maps, this is projected as the most evenly divided district in the state Senate, containing mostly suburban populations.[46]

It is considered a pure tossup with an estimated margin of 0–2 percentage points.[19]

District 23 (Safe R)

In Wisconsin's 23rd Senate district, the incumbent, Jesse James (R–Thorp), was drawn out of this district and will run for re-election in the 31st district instead. 25th district incumbent, Republican Romaine Quinn, was drawn into this district and will run for re-election. Quinn represented the 25th district since 2023, after winning the 2022 general election.[36] At this point, no Democratic candidate has announced to run for the seat.

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 23rd Senate district comprises all of Barron, Clark, Price, Rusk, and Taylor counties, with most of Chippewa County, northern Dunn County, and parts of northwest Marathon County. The district is mostly rural, but contains the cities of Bloomer, Ladysmith, Medford, Neillsville, and Rice Lake.[58] This is a Republican base district containing almost entirely rural and exurban populations in north-central Wisconsin.[46] Republicans have held the seat since 2011, but Democrats last contested this seat in 2018.

It is considered safe Republican with an estimated margin of 20+ percentage points.[19]

District 25 (Lean R)

In Wisconsin's 25th Senate district, the incumbent, Romaine Quinn (R–Birchwood), was drawn out of this district and will run for re-election in the 23rd district instead.[36] There is no incumbent residing in the new 25th Senate district. At this point, two Republican candidates—former state representatives Angie Sapik (R–Lake Nebagamon) and Erik Severson (R–Alden)—and one Democratic candidate—Bayfield County supervisor Charly Ray—have announced to run for the seat.[39][38][37]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 25th Senate district comprises all of Ashland, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Iron, Polk, Sawyer, and Washburn counties. It contains the cities of Superior, Ashland, Bayfield, Hayward, Spooner, and Washburn.[59] This is a somewhat Republican district containing almost entirely rural and exurban populations in northwest Wisconsin.[46] A formerly Democratic-leaning district, the rural communities have moved toward Republicans since the election of Donald Trump. The district was contested by Democrats in 2022, the same election it flipped from Democratic to Republican control.

It is considered lean Republican with an estimated margin of 5–10 percentage points.[19]

District 27 (Safe D)

In Wisconsin's 27th Senate district, the incumbent, Dianne Hesselbein (D–Middleton), has not indicated whether she will run for re-election. She has represented the district since 2023, after winning the 2022 general election. She is also the current minority leader in the Senate. At this point, no Republican candidate has announced to run for the seat.

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 27th Senate district comprises most of the northwest quadrant of Dane County. It includes much of the west side of the city of Madison, as well as portions of Madison's far north side, and the suburban cities of Middleton and Verona, and the villages of Black Earth, Cross Plains, Dane, Mazomanie, and Waunakee.[60] This is a Democratic base district in the Madison metropolitan area, containing mostly suburban population.[46] Democrats have held the seat since 1983, but Republicans contested this seat in 2022.

It is considered safe Democratic with an estimated margin of 20+ percentage points.[19]

District 29 (Likely R)

In Wisconsin's 29th Senate district, the incumbent, Cory Tomczyk (R–Mosinee), has not indicated whether he will run for re-election. He has represented the district since 2023, after winning the 2022 general election. At this point, one Democratic candidate has announced to run for the seat, retired Wausau radiologist Gillian Battino.[40]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 29th Senate district comprises most of Marathon County, along with northern Wood County, and parts of northern Portage County, northwest Waupaca County, and western Shawano County. The district includes the cities of Wausau, Marathon City, Marshfield, and Mosinee.[61] This is a somewhat Republican district, containing a mix of rural and suburban populations.[46] Republicans have held the seat since 2011, though Democrats contested this seat in 2022.

It is considered likely Republican with an estimated margin of 10–20 percentage points.[19]

District 31 (Lean D)

In Wisconsin's 31st Senate district, the incumbent, Jeff Smith (D–Brunswick), has announced he will run for re-election.[42] He has represented the district since 2019, winning a contested primary in 2018, winning the 2018 general election, and then winning re-election in 2022. 23rd district incumbent, Republican Jesse James, was drawn into this district and will also run for re-election, setting up the only incumbent-vs-incumbent matchup in 2026. James represented the 23rd district since 2023, after winning the 2022 general election.[36]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 31st Senate district comprises all of Eau Claire County, southeast Dunn County, and parts of southern Chippewa County and northern Trempealeau County. It includes the cities of Eau Claire, Chippewa Falls, and Menomonie.[62] This is a somewhat Democratic district, containing a mix of urban, suburban, and rural populations.[46] Democrats have held the seat since 2007, though Republicans contested this seat in 2022 in what was the narrowest race that cycle.

It is considered lean Democratic with an estimated margin of 5–10 percentage points.[19]

District 33 (Safe R)

In Wisconsin's 33rd Senate district, the incumbent, Chris Kapenga (R–Delafield), has not indicated whether he will run for re-election. He has represented the district since 2015, winning a contested primary in 2014, winning the 2014 general election, and then winning re-election in 2018 and 2022. At this point, one Democratic candidate has announced to run for the seat, Delafield attorney Mike Van Someren.[43]

Under Wisconsin's 2024 maps, the 33rd Senate district comprises most of western Waukesha County along with parts of eastern Jefferson County, southwest Washington County, and southeast Dodge County. It includes the cities of Delafield, Hartford, and Oconomowoc, and the villages of Chenequa, Dousman, Eagle, Hartland, Lac La Belle, Merton, Neosho, North Prairie, Palmyra, Sussex, and Wales.[63] This is a Republican base district containing mostly suburban and exurban populations in southeast Wisconsin.[46] Republicans have held the seat since 1939, and Democrats last contested this seat in a 2015 special election.

It is considered safe Republican with an estimated margin of 20+ percentage points.[19]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Removed from office by recall in 2012
  2. ^ Redistricted from the 23rd district.

References

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