2008 United States Senate election in Virginia

For related races, see 2008 United States Senate election.

2008 United States Senate election in Virginia
November 4, 2008
Turnout67.0% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Mark Warner Jim Gilmore
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,369,317 1,228,830
Percentage 65.03% 33.73%
Warner:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gilmore:      40–50%      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

John Warner
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Warner
Democratic

The 2008 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Senator John Warner decided to retire instead of seeking a sixth term. Former Democratic governor Mark Warner (unrelated) won the open seat by more than 31 percentage points, defeating Republican and fellow former governor Jim Gilmore in a landslide, and also becoming the first Democrat to win this seat since 1966. This was also the first time since 1964 that the state voted simultaneously for a Democratic presidential candidate and a Democratic Senate candidate, having voted for Barack Obama in the concurrent presidential election, albeit by a far lesser margin. This was Virginia's first open-seat election since 1988. Since Warner took office in 2009, Democrats have held both of Virginia's Senate seats, which they had last done in 1970, when Harry F. Byrd Jr. left the Democratic Party to become an independent.

Warner's large margin of victory was reflected throughout the state — Gilmore won only six counties and independent cities (Augusta, Colonial Heights, Hanover, Poquoson, Powhatan, and Rockingham), and his margin did not exceed more than 2,000 votes in any of them. Analysts attributed Warner's large margin of victory to various factors, such as Warner outraising Gilmore more than 9-to-1,[2] and Warner's high approval rating as governor. According to VCU's Commonwealth poll, only 23 percent of Virginian adults had a favorable view of Gilmore.[3]

To date, this is the last time Amelia County and Bland County voted Democratic. This is the last time that a Democratic candidate won a majority of Virginia's counties and independent cities.

Background

John Warner, a former United States Under Secretary of the Navy, had served Virginia in the Senate since 1979, and had been cagey about whether he would be running for re-election. He would have been favored for a sixth term had he decided to run again, even with recent Democratic gains in the state. In early 2007, it was speculated that Warner, who had turned 80 in February of that year, would retire. When Warner reported on April 12, 2007, that he had raised only $500 in campaign contributions during the first quarter, speculation increased that he might not seek a sixth term.[4]

On August 31, 2007, Warner formally announced that he would not be seeking re-election.[5] The race was expected to be competitive for Democrats, given the Democrats' two successive gubernatorial victories (2001, 2005) and the unseating of Republican senator George Allen by Jim Webb in 2006.[6]

The Wall Street Journal reported a story of National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Senator John Ensign outlining the 10 most competitive seats of the 2008 Senate election. When asked about the two GOP seats likely to switch parties, Virginia and New Mexico, on whether the NRSC was mulling walking away to work on other seats that could be won, Ensign said, "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win." This suggested that the NRSC might have started cutting money off.[7]

Republican nomination

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

On September 16, 2007, Republican Rep. Tom Davis of the 11th District unofficially announced that he would seek election to the seat.[8] The Washington Times reported that John Warner delayed his retirement announcement specifically to help Davis.[9]

On October 1, 2007, the editors of the National Review encouraged Virginia voters to draft General Peter Pace, the retiring Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to run in 2008 for the Senate seat to be vacated by retiring Senator John Warner. The magazine cited Pace's conservative Catholic beliefs in making its suggestion.[10]

On October 13, the Republican Party of Virginia's State Central Committee voted 47–37 to hold a statewide convention rather than a primary. Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore argued strongly for a convention, claiming it would save the candidates money. It reportedly costs $4 million to compete in a primary, while it costs only $1 million for a convention. Davis argued that a primary would expose the candidates to the kind of environment they would face in November. A primary was thought to favor Davis due to his popularity in voter-rich Northern Virginia. In contrast, a convention was thought to favor Gilmore because most of the delegates would come from the party's activist base, which is tilted heavily to the right. With the decision, Gilmore said he was seriously considering entering the race.[11]

Davis dropped out of the race on October 25, 2007, citing the potential difficulties of defeating Gilmore in the conservative-dominated GOP convention and in taking on Warner, who is very popular in Davis' own Northern Virginia base.[12] Gilmore confirmed his candidacy on November 19, 2007.[13]

On January 7, 2008, Delegate Bob Marshall (R-Prince William County), a sixteen-year state legislator from Northern Virginia known for his social conservative values, announced he would challenge Gilmore for the Republican nomination May 31, 2008.[14] The convention was held on May 31, 2008, where Gilmore won the nomination with 50.3% of the vote, just 66 votes more than Marshall.[15]

Republican Convention Vote[16]

Candidate 1st District 2nd District 3rd District 4th District 5th District 6th District 7th District 8th District 9th District 10th District 11th District Total
Jim Gilmore 491 613 121 319 667 531 1036 156 552 160 557 5223
Bob Marshall 643 345 75 383 420 507 582 145 335 585 1137 5157
Total 1134 958 196 702 1087 938 1618 301 887 745 1714 10380

Democratic nomination

On September 12, 2007, former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to John Warner) announced his candidacy.[6][17] Mark Warner had challenged John Warner for his Senate seat in 1996, but was narrowly defeated. Mark Warner later won election in 2001 as Governor of Virginia, and left office with a high level of popularity in 2006. He was confirmed as the party nominee at the state convention on June 10, 2008, as he went unopposed.

General election

Candidates

  • Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia (Republican)
  • Glenda Parker, retired United States Air Force officer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006 (Independent Greens)
  • Bill Redpath, national chair of the Libertarian Party (Libertarian)
  • Mark Warner, former governor of Virginia (Democratic)

On March 29, 2008, the Libertarian Party of Virginia state convention nominated Bill Redpath as its Senate candidate.[18] Redpath, who was serving as national party chair at the time, cited the importance of running a Libertarian candidate for federal office this election year, considering the fact that the Independent Greens had been fielding candidates so actively in recent years. Glenda Gail Parker from Alexandria, a retired U.S. Air Force officer, ran again for the Independent Greens as she did in the 2006 Senate election.[19]

Campaign

After the conclusions of the state conventions, Democrat Mark Warner had emerged as the front-runner for the Class 2 Senate seat from Virginia. Some early polling showed Mark Warner leading Jim Gilmore by as much as 2–1.

Pundits and analysts believed Virginia to be the single strongest pickup opportunity for the Democrats due to Warner's consistent lead in the polls.

Jim Gilmore responded aggressively, mostly with ads on the Internet; his campaign had very little money. Gilmore attacked Warner for raising taxes during his term as governor, when he had pledged not to do so,[20] flip-flopping[21] among many other topics.

On October 6, 2008, Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore debated various issues, including the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, the Iraq War and judicial nominees. The Richmond Times Dispatch sponsored the debate held at the Taubman Museum of Art, Roanoke, Virginia.[22]

Mark Warner argued he'd be part of a radical centrist coalition, no matter who won the presidency. He claimed the coalition would improve cooperation in the Congress and its subsequent public perception. Warner spoke of alternative energy, and Gilmore argued for offshore drilling.[23] The issue of the 2004 tax increase under then-Governor Mark Warner was raised at the first debate of the campaign between Gilmore and Warner.[24]

The Washington Post reported on July 24, 2008, that Jim Gilmore "submitted false information on two financial disclosure forms that hid his ties to a government contractor embroiled in a legal dispute over allegations that two of its executives had conspired to defraud the federal government." The Gilmore campaign responded by saying, the controversy was due to a "clerical error."[25]

On election night, Warner was declared the winner based on exit polls alone, before the votes were counted.

Fundraising

Money played a large role in the campaign. By July, Mark Warner had raised $9 million, while Jim Gilmore had raised $1.2 million.[26] This does not include money from the DSCC or NRSC.

Endorsements

Mark Warner

Jim Gilmore

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[33] Likely D (flip) October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[34] Safe D (flip) October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[35] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[36] Safe D (flip) November 1, 2008

Polling

Aggregate poll

Source of poll

aggregation

Dates

administered

Dates

updated

Jim

Gilmore (R)

Mark

Warner (R)

Other/Undecided

[a]

Margin
RealClearPolitics[37] October 25–November 1, 2008 November 1, 2008 32.7% 61.3% 6.0% Warner +28.6%
Poll source Date(s)

administered

Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Jim
Gilmore

(R)

Mark
Warner

(D)

Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[38] October 31–November 2, 2008 1,557 (LV) ± 2.5% 36% 62% – 2%
SurveyUSA[39][c] October 30–November 1, 2008 672 (LV) ± 3.8% 35% 59% 5%[d] 2%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[37] October 29–30, 2008 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 31% 62% – 7%
SurveyUSA[40][e] October 25–26, 2008 671 (LV) ± 3.7% 32% 63% 2%[f] 2%
The Associated Press[41] October 22–26, 2008 601 (LV) ± 3.5% 32% 58% 2%[g] 18%
The Washington Post[42] October 22–25, 2008 784 (LV) ± 3.5% 31% 61% – 8%
Virginia Commonwealth University[43] October 20–22, 2008 817 (LV) ± 4.0% 27% 61% – 12%
902 (RV) 25% 59% – 16%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[37] October 20–21, 2008 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 58% – 9%
SurveyUSA[44][h] October 18–19, 2008 652 (LV) ± 3.8% 36% 60% 2%[i] 2%
Rasmussen Reports[45] October 16, 2008 700 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 61% – 3%
Suffolk University[46] October 3–5, 2008 600 (LV) – 25% 57% 3%[j] 15%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[47] September 9–October 1, 2008 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 31% 57% – 11%
Rasmussen Reports[37] September 25, 2008 700 (LV) – 34% 60% – 6%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[37] September 17–22, 2008 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 28% 61% – 11%
SurveyUSA[48][k] September 19–21, 2008 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 34% 57% 6%[l] 3%
The Washington Post/ABC News[49] September 18–21, 2008 857 (RV) ± 3.0% 29% 61% 5%[m] 5%
698 (LV) ± 4.0% 31% 61% 4%[n] 4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[50] September 13–14, 2008 1,090 (LV) ± 3.0% 33% 57% – 10%
Christopher Newport University[51] September 10–14, 2008 500 (V) ± 4.4% 30% 54% – 16%
SurveyUSA[52][o] September 12–14, 2008 732 (LV) ± 3.7% 34% 57% 5%[p] 3%
SurveyUSA[53][q] September 5–7, 2008 717 (LV) ± 3.7% 35% 56% 7%[r] 3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[54] August 20–22, 2008 1,036 (LV) ± 3.0% 32% 55% – 13%
Rasmussen Reports[55] August 12, 2008 700 (LV) ± 4.5% 35% 61% – 5%
Rasmussen Reports[56] July 16, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 36% 59% – 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[57] June 14–16, 2008 893 (LV) ± 3.3% 28% 59% – 13%
Rasmussen Reports[58] June 12, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 33% 60% 2% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[59] May 8, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 55% 3% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[60] March 26, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 39% 55% 3% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[61] February 19, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 57% – 6%
Rasmussen Reports[62] January 2, 2008 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 38% 53% 5% 4%
SurveyUSA[63][s] October 27–30, 2007 644 (RV) ± 3.9% 35% 57% – 8%
Rasmussen Reports[64] October 24, 2007 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 53% 6% 4%
The Washington Post[65] October 4–8, 2007 1,144 (A) ± 4.0% 31% 61% 3%[t] 5%
Christopher Newport University[66] September 27–October 1, 2007 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 27% 51% – 22%
SurveyUSA[67][u] September 14–16, 2007 783 (RV) ± 3.5% 32% 60% – 8%
Rasmussen Reports[68] September 5, 2007 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 34% 54% 2% 9%

Results

2008 United States Senate election in Virginia[69]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Warner 2,369,327 65.03% +65.03%
Republican Jim Gilmore 1,228,830 33.73% −48.84%
Independent Greens Glenda Parker 21,690 0.60% +0.60%
Libertarian Bill Redpath 20,269 0.56% +0.56%
Write-in 3,178 0.09% -0.47%
Total votes 3,643,294 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Sponsored by WDBJ Roanoke, WJHL-TV Tri-Cities, WJLA-TV Washington, WTVR-TV Richmond
  4. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 3% and William Redpath (L) with 2%.
  5. ^ Sponsored by WDBJ Roanoke, WJHL-TV Tri-Cities, WJLA-TV Washington, WTVR-TV Richmond
  6. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 1% and William Redpath (L) with 1%.
  7. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 1% and William Redpath (L) with 1%.
  8. ^ Sponsored by WDBJ Roanoke, WJHL-TV Tri-Cities, WJLA-TV Washington, WTVR-TV Richmond
  9. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 1% and William Redpath (L) with 1%.
  10. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 1% and "Refused" with 2%.
  11. ^ Sponsored by WDBJ Roanoke, WJHL-TV Tri-Cities, WJLA-TV Washington, WTVR-TV Richmond
  12. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 3% and William Redpath (L) with 3%.
  13. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 2%, William Redpath (L) with 1%, "None" with 1%, and "Would not vote" with 1%.
  14. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 1%, William Redpath (L) with 1%, "None" with 1%, and "Would not vote" with 1%.
  15. ^ Sponsored by WDBJ Roanoke, WJHL-TV Tri-Cities, WJLA-TV Washington, WTVR-TV Richmond
  16. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 4% and William Redpath (L) with 1%.
  17. ^ Sponsored by WDBJ Roanoke, WJHL-TV Tri-Cities, WJLA-TV Washington, WTVR-TV Richmond
  18. ^ Glenda Parker (G) with 4% and William Redpath (L) with 3%.
  19. ^ Roll Call
  20. ^ Neither with 3%.
  21. ^ Sponsored by WLJA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, WAVY-TV Norfolk, WDBJ Roanoke

References

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General

Official campaign websites (archived)

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