2026 Senedd election

The 2026 Senedd election is due to be held on 7 May 2026^[1][2] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election following reforms to the voting system, which increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopt a party-list voting system, reduce the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shorten its term from five years to four.^[3][4] The election will be held on the same day as local elections in England and elections to the Scottish Parliament.

In the 2021 Senedd election, Welsh Labour won another government with just one seat short of their first-ever majority.^[5] At the 2022 Welsh local elections, the Welsh Conservatives suffered losses to Plaid Cymru and Labour.^[6] In the 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales, Labour won the most seats and the Conservatives were wiped out losing all their Welsh seats.^[7]

In September 2025, following the Angela Rayner tax scandal that led to her resignation and a Labour Party deputy leadership election, the subsequent cabinet reshuffle, and the dismissal of Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the United States over the latter's association with Jeffrey Epstein, criticisms of Starmer's leadership became more prominent within the Labour Party. MPs reportedly viewed underperformance in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections and next Senedd election as a likely catalyst for a leadership challenge.^[8] Polls have suggested a neck and neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.^[9] The 2026 vote is considered to be seismic for Welsh politics,^[10] and is being touted as the "most consequential Senedd election since 1999".^[11]

The 2026 Senedd election will use a new electoral system following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act. The Senedd will have 96 members, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method) in 16 six-member constituencies. The 16 constituencies were created by pairing up the 32 Westminster constituencies.^[12][13] Parties can nominate up to 8 candidates on their list in each constituency.^[14]

In the event that an elected Senedd member resigns during the term, they will be replaced by the member below them on their party's list rather than a by-election being held. In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, and had 60 members, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The new electoral system would be ready to be used only for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.^[15] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.^[16]

Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women; however, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.^[17]

MSs who have announced their retirement are in italics.

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election who are seeking re-election are bolded.^[18]

According to Professor John Curtice campaign issues include the economy, cost of living, health and social care services and immigration.^[44]

On 2 February 2025, Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition with Plaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition with Reform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here", and also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them.^[45] This election has been described as pivotal for the premiership of Keir Starmer.^[46] Morgan warned that a "threat to the United Kingdom will become real" if Plaid and the Green Party gain a majority in the Senedd, calling for further devolution, calling it the "best way to lower the temperature and raise trust." ^[47]

A day later, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different."^[48] In April 2025, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said his party "would work with any other Senedd party" and that the new voting system means "it's not going to be easy" to win an overall majority.^[49]

Following the election of Zack Polanski as Green Party leader in September 2025, the party's popularity rose sharply.^[50] Their positive relationship with Plaid Cymru could lead to collaboration of some sort; however, ap Iorwerth said he would prefer a minority government over any coalition.^[51][52]

After becoming the most popular party in opinion polls in early 2025, ap Iorwerth ruled out holding an independence referendum in a first term of a Plaid Cymru government, in contrast to the party's 2021 manifesto, stating that they still kept a "long term ambition" of Welsh independence.^[53]

On 5 February 2026 Reform UK announced Dan Thomas as their leader in Wales, although he was an unknown figure in Wales having moved away in 1999 and was a Conservative Party councillor on Barnet London Borough Council from 2006 to 2025.^[54]

On 27 and 28 February Plaid Cymru held their spring conference, and announced their plan for first 100 days in government which announced many of their policies before their full manifesto.^[55]

On 1 March 2026, Eluned Morgan announced that if Welsh Labour wins the Senedd election they would spend £4 billion to build the "hospitals of the future".^[56]

On 2 March 2026, the Welsh Conservatives launched their manifesto.^[57] They proposed to build the M4 Relief Road, take 1 pence off the basic rate of income tax alongside scrapping business rates for small firms and re-establishing the Welsh Development Agency. The party also announced it's intention to reverse the 20mph national default speed limit, scrap the Nation of Sanctuary initiative, and place restrictions on wind farm developments.^[58]

On 3 March 2026, the Welsh Liberal Democrats called for £10 million for cross‑border healthcare in Powys.^[59]

On 5 March 2026, Reform UK launched their Welsh manifesto in Newport, where Nigel Farage called the election a referendum on the Prime Minister's leadership.^[60] The party pledged several policies that were similarly included in the Welsh Conservative manifesto, such as 1 pence income tax cuts, reversing of the default 20mph speed limit and scrapping the Nation of Sanctuary. The party also pledged to build the M4 relief road, intending to establish it as a toll road, make local people in Wales a priority for social housing, as well as proposing a ban on any new onshore wind farms.^[61]

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.^[62][63]

Considering the polls from less than one year before the election, there have been 12 polls. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have both led in 5 and were tied in one of them, and Labour has led in 1. Of the polls with a sample size of 1,000 people or more, there have been 5, with Plaid leading in 4 of them, with Reform UK leading in 1.

Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.

The following MSs have announced their intention to not run for re-election:

• 2026 Scottish Parliament election
• Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

• Next Senedd election