2026 New Zealand general election

2026 New Zealand general election

7 November 2026

All 120 seats (plus any overhang) in the House of Representatives
61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Christopher Luxon Chris Hipkins Marama Davidson
Chlöe Swarbrick
Party National Labour Green
Leader since 30 November 2021 22 January 2023 8 April 2018
10 March 2024
Leader's seat Botany Remutaka List
Auckland Central
Last election 48 seats, 38.06% 34 seats, 26.91% 15 seats, 11.60%
Current seats 49 34 15
Seats needed 12 27 46

 
Leader David Seymour Winston Peters Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
Rawiri Waititi
Party ACT NZ First Te Pāti Māori
Leader since 4 October 2014 18 July 1993 15 April 2020
28 October 2020
Leader's seat Epsom List Te Tai Hauāuru
Waiariki
Last election 11 seats, 8.64% 8 seats, 6.08% 6 seats, 3.08%
Current seats 11 8 4
Seats needed 50 53 57

Incumbent Prime Minister and coalition

Christopher Luxon (National)
NationalACTNZ First



A general election to determine the composition of the 55th Parliament of New Zealand is planned to be held on 7 November 2026,[1][2] following the dissolution or expiry of the currently elected 54th Parliament.

Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members are elected from single-member electorates and 49 members are elected from closed party lists.

After the previous election, the centre-right National Party, led by prime minister Christopher Luxon, formed a coalition government with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National–ACT–NZ First government is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former prime minister Chris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wing Green Party and the indigenous rights-based Te Pāti Māori.

Electoral system

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. At this election, 71 of the 120 seats will be filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 49 seats will be filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when the Labour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in 2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.

Electorate boundaries

Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the 2023 census. This means that unless a snap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census.[3][4]

The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16,[5] with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates, leaving 48 seats to be elected through party lists. Due to changes in the relative populations between the two islands, Statistics New Zealand announced on 25 October 2024 that there would be 16 South Island electorates, 48 North Island electorates, 7 Māori electorates, and 49 list seats.[6][7] Redrawn draft boundaries were released for public consultation on 25 March 2025. The draft boundaries proposed the disestablishment of the Ōhāriu, Mana and Ōtaki electorates in Wellington, replacing them with two new electorates, Kenepuru and Kapiti. Meanwhile due to significant boundary changes in New Lynn, Kelston, Te Atatū, Panmure-Ōtāhuhu, and Bay of Plenty, those electorates are proposed to be replaced with new electorates named Waitākere, Glendene, Rānui, Ōtāhuhu, and Mount Maunganui respectively.[8] The majority of objections to the draft boundaries concerned moving Balmoral from Epsom to Mount Albert, moving Ashhurst from Rangitīkei to Wairarapa, and moving Newlands and Woodridge from Ōhāriu to Hutt South.[9][10]

On 8 August, the electorate boundaries were finalised, with the reconfiguration leading to the creation of new electorates. In western Auckland, the electorates of New Lynn, Kelston and Te Atatū were reconfigured into Waitakere, Glendene and Henderson. In southern Auckland, the electorate of Panmure-Ōtāhuhu becomes Ōtāhuhu after losing the Panmure suburbs. In Bay of Plenty, the electorates of Tauranga and Bay of Plenty are reconfigured, with the Bay of Plenty electorate being re-named Mount Maunganui to reflect the change. In the East Coast, the East Coast electorate was re-named to East Cape.

In the lower North Island, the electorates of Otaki, Mana and Ōhāriu are reconfigured into the Kenepuru and Kapiti electorates. In Wellington, the northward shift of Wellington Central led to the recreation of the Wellington North electorate, while the expansion of Rongotai into the Wellington suburbs led to the formation of the Wellington Bays electorate.[11]

Election date

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023.[12]

The governor-general must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament.[13] Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament would expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election would be 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 60 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which would be Friday, 15 January 2027.[14] Because polling day must be a Saturday,[14] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date that this election could be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.

On 21 January 2026, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced that the election will be held on 7 November 2026. Parliament will dissolve on 1 October and writs will be issued on 4 October with nominations closing at midday on 8 October. Advance voting will begin on 26 October, and the last day for the return of the writ will be 3 December.[15]

Electoral Amendment Act 2025

On 16 December 2025, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Electoral Amendment Act 2025, which amended the Electoral Act 1993 ahead of the 2026 general election. The new law limits voter enrolment to 13 days before polling day, banned prisoners from voting, raised the threshold for voluntary donations from NZ$5,000 to NZ$6,000 and banned the distribution of food and most drinks near polling booths.[16][17] The law change was supported by the governing National, ACT and New Zealand First parties but was opposed by the opposition Labour, Green parties, and Te Pāti Māori, who described it as amounting to voter suppression and discriminatory against younger and ethnic minority voters.[17][18]

Parties and candidates

Since the 2023 election, six parties have been deregistered: DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024,[19][a] Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024,[20][b] New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024,[21][c] Democratic Alliance on 27 November 2024,[22] New Nation Party on 29 January 2025,[23][d] and Freedoms New Zealand on 1 May 2025.[24][e]

Party Leader(s) Founded Ideology 2023 election result Current seats Status
% party vote seats
National Christopher Luxon 1936 Liberal Conservatism 38.08%
48 / 123
49 / 123
Coalition
Labour Chris Hipkins 1916 Social democracy 26.92%
34 / 123
34 / 123
Opposition
Green Marama Davidson
Chlöe Swarbrick
1990 Green politics
Social democracy
11.61%
15 / 123
15 / 123
Opposition
ACT David Seymour 1994 Classical liberalism
Right-libertarianism
Conservatism
8.64%
11 / 123
11 / 123
Coalition
NZ First Winston Peters 1993 Nationalism
Social conservatism
Right-wing populism
6.09%
8 / 123
8 / 123
Coalition
Te Pāti Māori Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
Rawiri Waititi
2004 Māori rights
Tino rangatiratanga
3.08%
6 / 123
4 / 123
Opposition
Opportunity Qiulae Wong 2016 Radical centrism 2.22%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
NewZeal Alfred Ngaro 2020 Social conservatism
Christian democracy
0.56%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
Legalise Cannabis Maki Herbert
Michael Appleby
1996 Cannabis legalisation 0.45%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
Outdoors Sue Grey 2015 Environmentalism
Conspiracism
Social conservatism
0.34%[f]
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
Vision NZ Hannah Tamaki 2019 Christian nationalism
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
Animal Justice Anna Rippon
Robert McNeil
2023 Animal rights 0.17%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
New Conservatives Helen Houghton 2011 Conservatism
Traditionalism
0.15%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
Women's Rights Jill Ovens
Chimene Del La Veras
2023 Transphobia 0.08%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary

MPs not standing for re-election

Damien O'Connor announced on 26 January 2026 that he would not stand in the West Coast-Tasman electorate again, but whether he will stand elsewhere or go on the list has not been decided yet.[25] Andrew Bayly similarly announced on 3 March 2026 that he would not stand in the Port Waikato electorate again, and is exploring whether or not to stand on the list.[26]

Name Party Electorate/List Term in office Date announced
Duncan Webb Labour Christchurch Central 2017–present 21 October 2025[27]
Paulo Garcia National New Lynn 2019–2020, 2023–present 16 December 2025[28]
Maureen Pugh National West Coast-Tasman 2016–2017, 2018–present 23 January 2026[29]
Celia Wade-Brown Green List 2024–present 28 January 2026[30]
Judith Collins National Papakura 2002–present 28 January 2026[31]
Shane Reti National Whangārei 2014–present 10 March 2026[32]

MPs standing for re-election as list-only MPs

Name Party Electorate/List Term in office Date announced Notes
Megan Woods Labour Wigram 2011–present 3 August 2025[33]
Nicola Willis National List 2018–present 22 December 2025[34]
Greg O'Connor Labour Ōhāriu 2017–present 21 January 2026[35] Intention to become Speaker of the House of Representatives

Fundraising

On 11 March 2026, Radio New Zealand reported that American New Zealander tech entrepreneur Brian Cartmell had donated at least NZ$500,000 to the National, ACT, New Zealand First parties and The Opportunity Party. The ACT Party confirmed it had received NZ$200,000 from Cartmell in 2025 while the Electoral Commission confirmed that The Opportunity Party had received NZ$100,000. Cartmell said that he had donated to the governing coalition parties because they were "the best available chance of navigating a period of significant economic, technological, and geopolitical change in a way that preserves New Zealand's sovereignty, prosperity and independence." He also praised the Opportunity Party for bringing "new ideas" to the New Zealand political process.[36]

Campaigning

National Party

In November 2025, the National Party announced that it would gradually raise the default KiwiSaver contribution for employees and employers from 3% to 6% by 2032 if re-elected in 2026.[37] On 21 February, National's conservation spokesperson Tama Potaka announced that the party would campaign on further restricting commercial fishing in the Hauraki Gulf.[38]

Labour Party

In late October 2025, Labour made two policy announcements including the establishment of an economic investment fund called the "NZ Future Fund" and the introduction of a capital gains tax based on property transactions to subsidise doctors' visits.[39][40] In early November 2025, the party proposed free cervical cancer screenings for all women aged between 25 and 69 years.[41] In mid-November, the party announced that it would repeal the Regulatory Standards Act 2025 within its first 100 days of government if it won the 2026 general election.[42] Prior to the party's annual general meeting, Labour leader Chris Hipkins confirmed that the party would contest all seven Māori electorates, citing the internal conflict within Te Pāti Māori, which holds six of those seats. The party has sought to exploit growing voter disillusionment with the National-led coalition government's handling of cost of living, health, economic and housing issues.[43]

In mid January 2026, Labour proposed a streaming levy on foreign streaming companies like Netflix in order to invest in the New Zealand film industry.[44] In early February 2026, Labour leader Chris Hipkins along with the Greens co-leaders Chlöe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson announced during a press conference at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds that the two parties would work together during the election and in a future government.[45]

Green Party

In May 2025, the Greens released their alternative "Green Budget", which proposed investing $8 billion over the next four years in various green policies including creating a Ministry of Green Works and supporting sustainable infrastructure.[46] Other notable Green Budget policies have included a new wealth tax, higher corporate taxes, a private jet tax, higher mining royalties and income tax rates.[47] In mid November 2025, the Greens confirmed they would revoke all coal, gold and seabed mining consents approved under the incumbent coalition government's Fast-track Approvals Act 2024.[48]

In early February 2026, co-leader Marama Davidson confirmed that the party would be fielding candidates in three of the Māori electorates including list MP Huhana Lyndon, lawyer Tania Waikato and former Te Pāti Māori candidate Heather Te-Au Skipworth.[49] On 12 March 2026, the party released its draft party list of candidates.[50]

ACT

On 15 February 2026, the ACT Party held its annual State of the Nation address in Christchurch, where party leader David Seymour stated they would campaign on decreasing government spending, and merging ministerial portfolios.[51][52] On 19 February, Seymour advocated merging the Ministry for Ethnic Communities, Ministry for Women, Ministry for Pacific Peoples, Office for Seniors, Ministry of Youth Development and Te Puni Kōkiri (Ministry for Māori Development) into the Ministry for Culture and Heritage.[53]

New Zealand First

Despite supporting the passage of the Government's Regulatory Standards Act 2025 into law in mid November 2025, New Zealand First subsequently announced on 20 November that it would repeal the legislation if re-elected into government in 2026. NZ First leader Winston Peters said that the party had only supported the Regulatory Standards Act due to ACT New Zealand's coalition agreement with the National Party.[54]

On 10 February 2026, NZ First deputy leader Shane Jones confirmed the party would campaign on reinstating ministerial powers in approving fast-track projects during the 2026 election.[55] On 12 February, the party confirmed it would campaign for a referendum on the future of the Māori electorates.[56]

Te Pāti Māori

In February 2025, Te Pāti Māori proposed the creation of a Parliamentary Commissioner for Te Tiriti o Waitangi, who would have extraordinary powers to audit and veto bills that did not comply with the Treaty. The party described the policy as a "bottomline" in any coalition negotiations.[57] In April 2025, Te Pāti Māori announced plans to run candidates in the general seats at the 2026 general election.[58]

In January 2026, the party stated they will campaign on abolishing prisons by 2040 to address the high Māori incarceration rate, replacing them with "community-led and community-based solutions".[59]

The Opportunity Party

The Opportunity Party has announced it would campaign with several policies, including reducing house prices through a land value tax, and introducing a "Citizen's Voice", consisting of citizens' assemblies for certain major issues.[60] In mid-February 2026, party leader Qiulae Wong announced that Opportunity would campaign on replacing all forms of welfare assistance including superannuation with a means-tested "citizen's income." Unlike universal basic income, people earning more than NZ$350,000 a year would not be able to access it. The citizen's income policy would be funded by a land value tax, and savings from the benefits that would be replaced.[61] On 16 February, the party's general manager Iain Lees-Galloway announced that the party would field about 30 candidates during the 2026 election with the goal of reaching the five percent threshold for the party needed to enter Parliament.[62] During the party's State of the Nation address in Auckland on 21 February, Wong announced that the Opportunity Party would campaign on promoting national unity, banning bottom trawling and investing in renewal energy.[63]

Opinion polling

Seat projections

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). However, projections that show the National Party winning fewer than 44 total seats (44 being the number of electorate seats currently held by National) assume that National will lose at least enough electorates to avoid an overhang. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[64]

Source Seats in parliament[i] Likely government formation
NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM Total
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[65]
1–3 Mar 2026 poll
36 44 13 10 13 4 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
The Post/Freshwater Strategy[66]
6–12 Feb 2026 poll
38 46 13 7 14 4** 122 Labour–Greens–Māori (63)
1 News–Verian[67]
7–11 Feb 2026 poll
42 39 14 11 12 4** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[68]
1–3 Feb 2026 poll
39 43 13 8 13 4 120 Hung parliament
Roy Morgan[69]
6–26 Jan 2026 poll
43 38 13 11 11 4 120 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
RNZ–Reid Research[70]
15–22 Jan 2026 poll
40 43 12 9 12 4 120 National–ACT–NZ First (61)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[71]
14–18 Jan 2026 poll
39 43 10 9 15 4 120 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[72]
25 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 poll
41 40 15 9 12 4* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (62)
The Post/Freshwater Strategy[73]
5–10 Dec 2025 poll
38 48 10 10 11 4* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian[74]
29 Nov–3 Dec 2025 poll
44 43 9 12 11 4*** 123 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Roy Morgan[75]
27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025 poll
42 36 18 10 11 4* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Talbot Mills[76]
1–10 Nov 2025 poll
40 47 11 9 10 4* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[77]
2–6 Nov 2025 poll
39 42 12 11 12 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Roy Morgan[78]
29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025 poll
41 39 15 10 12 6*** 123 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Talbot Mills[79]
1–10 Oct 2025 poll
35 43 12 10 15 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
1 News–Verian[80]
4–8 Oct 2025 poll
42 40 14 9 12 6*** 123 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
The Post/Freshwater Strategy[81]
3–8 Oct 2025 poll
38 42 11 11 14 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[82]
1–5 Oct 2025 poll
38 40 15 8 13 6 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Roy Morgan[83]
25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 poll
39 36 17 11 10 7 120 Hung parliament
RNZ–Reid Research[84]
4–12 Sep 2025 poll
40 42 13 9 11 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Talbot Mills[85]
1–10 Sep 2025 poll
39 43 12 9 12 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[86]
31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 poll
42 42 13 8 10 6 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Roy Morgan[87]
28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 poll
36 42 17 13 9 6*** 123 Labour–Greens–Māori (65)
Talbot Mills[88]
1–10 Aug 2025 poll
39 42 13 10 11 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
1 News–Verian[89]
2–6 Aug 2025 poll
42 40 12 10 11 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[90]
3–5 Aug 2025 poll
40 43 12 11 10 6** 122 Hung parliament
Roy Morgan[91]
30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 poll
38 39 14 13 12 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Talbot Mills[92]
1–10 Jul 2025 poll
39 42 15 10 9 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[93]
2–6 Jul 2025 poll
42 39 12 11 12 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan[94]
26 May – 22 Jun 2025 poll
40 37 14 15 8 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[95]
7–9 Jun 2025 poll
42 44 10 12 8 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (62)
RNZ–Reid Research[96]
23–30 May 2025 poll
38 42 14 8 11 7 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (63)
1 News–Verian[97]
24–28 May 2025 poll
43 37 15 10 10 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[98]
28 Apr – 25 May 2025 poll
40 37 14 15 8 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[99]
30 Apr – 4 May 2025 poll
42 41 11 12 9 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[100]
24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 poll
39 36 17 11 11 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (61)
1 News–Verian[101]
29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 poll
44 40 12 11 9 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[102]
29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 poll
42 37 14 13 9 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
RNZ–Reid Research[103]
21–27 Mar 2025 poll
41 40 12 12 9 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Roy Morgan[104]
24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 poll
41 35 18 10 9 7 120 Hung parliament
Talbot Mills[105]
1–10 Mar 2025 poll
39 43 13 12 8 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[106]
2–4 Mar 2025 poll
42 42 12 10 6 8 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
Roy Morgan[107]
27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 poll
38 36 20 14 8 6** 122 Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian[108]
3–7 Feb 2025 poll
43 42 13 11 6 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[109]
2–4 Feb 2025 poll
39 39 16 12 8 6 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Talbot Mills[110]
7–27 Jan 2025 poll
40 42 15 11 6 6 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (63)
Roy Morgan[111]
2–26 Jan 2025 poll
40 36 14 11 11 8 120 National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[112]
9–13 Jan 2025 poll
38 39 12 14 10 7 120 National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Roy Morgan[113]
25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 poll
39 32 17 16 9 7 120 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
1 News–Verian[114]
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 poll
46 36 12 10 7 9 120 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[115]
1–3 Dec 2024 poll
44 34 11 17 7 7 120 National–ACT (61)
Labour–Talbot Mills[116]
22–28 Nov 2024 poll
39 40 12 12 8 9 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
The Post/Freshwater Strategy[117]
26–27 Nov 2024 poll
42 39 16 10 8 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Roy Morgan[118]
28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 poll
37 36 17 11 8 11 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[119]
6–10 Nov 2024 poll
48 39 11 11 8 6*** 123 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[120]
1–10 Nov 2024 poll
42 41 12 12 9 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[121]
23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 poll
39 37 18 11 9 6 120 Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
1 News–Verian[122]
5–9 Oct 2024 poll
47 37 15 10 6 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[123]
3–7 Oct 2024 poll
44 38 13 12 9 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan[124]
26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll
47 29 17 13 9 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[125]
8–10 Sep 2024 poll
48 33 14 11 8 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[126]
1–10 Sep 2024 poll
46 39 12 10 8 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[127]
29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll
45 33 16 12 9 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
1 News–Verian[128]
10–14 Aug 2024 poll
49 38 14 8 7 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[129]
24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll
41 31 18 14 8 8 120 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[130]
4–8 Jul 2024 poll
47 33 16 11 9 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Roy Morgan[131]
27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll
44 35 18 11 7 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (62)
1 News–Verian[132]
15–19 Jun 2024 poll
47 36 16 9 8 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[133]
4–6 Jun 2024 poll
44 36 16 12 7 6* 121 National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan[134]
22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll
42 38 17 12 7 6** 122 Hung parliament
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[135]
5–7 May 2024 poll
47 37 13 12 7 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Talbot Mills[136]
30 Apr 2024 poll
42 41 15 9 8 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian[137]
20–24 Apr 2024 poll
48 40 18 9 0 6* 121 Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Roy Morgan[138]
25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll
45 31 16 14 7 7 120 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[139]
2–4 Apr 2024 poll
47 32 18 9 8 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan[140]
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll
45 27 19 15 9 5 120 National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Talbot Mills[141]
1–10 Feb 2024 poll
47 35 15 9 8 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[142]
1–7 Feb 2024 poll
49 34 11 17 6 6*** 123 National–ACT (66)
Roy Morgan[143]
8–28 Jan 2024 poll
49 28 20 10 7 6 120 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Roy Morgan[144]
Dec 2023 poll
46 28 20 12 8 8** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Curia[145]
3–5 Dec 2023 poll
46 36 14 8 10 6 120 National–ACT-NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[146]
1–6 Nov 2023 poll
46 35 17 10 8 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (64)
2023 election result[147]
14 Oct 2023
48 34 15 11 8 6** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
* indicates an overhang seat
  1. ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

Notes

  1. ^ Got 0.24% of the party vote in 2023 election
  2. ^ Got 0.07% of the party vote in 2023 election
  3. ^ Got 1.21% of the party vote in 2023 election
  4. ^ Got 0.05% of the party vote in 2023 election
  5. ^ Got 0.34% of the party vote in 2023 election
  6. ^ As part of Freedoms New Zealand

References

  1. ^ "As it happened: Election to be held on 7 November, Christopher Luxon announces". Radio New Zealand. 21 January 2026. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
  2. ^ "Christopher Luxon announces election date for 7 November". RNZ. 21 January 2026. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
  3. ^ "How are electoral boundaries decided?". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  4. ^ "New Zealand Election Results". Ministry of Justice. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  5. ^ Electoral Act 1993, section 35(3)(a).
  6. ^ "General electorates down by one, number of Māori electorates stays at seven". Stats NZ. 23 October 2024.
  7. ^ "Number of electorates and electoral populations: 2023 Census | Stats NZ". www.stats.govt.nz. Retrieved 9 November 2024.
  8. ^ "Proposed electorate boundaries released". Elections NZ. 25 March 2025.
  9. ^ "Boundary review objections released". Elections. Retrieved 9 May 2025.
  10. ^ Whyte, Anna (8 May 2025). "Objections to proposed electoral boundaries released". www.thepost.co.nz. Retrieved 9 May 2025.
  11. ^ "Electorate boundaries finalised". Elections NZ. 8 August 2025.
  12. ^ "New Zealand Election Results". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  13. ^ Electoral Act 1993. s 125. Archived from the original on 28 September 2011. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  14. ^ a b Electoral Act 1993. s 139. Archived from the original on 7 December 2024. Retrieved 22 January 2026.
  15. ^ "'Game on' as PM Luxon reveals 2026 election date". 1 News. TVNZ. 21 January 2026. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
  16. ^ Electoral Amendment Bill (Act of Parliament, Government Bill 186-3). New Zealand Parliament. 19 December 2025.
  17. ^ a b Palmer, Russell (17 December 2025). "Electoral Amendment Bill passes its third reading in Parliament". RNZ. Archived from the original on 17 December 2025. Retrieved 18 December 2025.
  18. ^ "Final report (Electoral Amendment Bill and Report of the Attorney-General under NZBORA on the bill)". New Zealand Parliament. 27 November 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2026.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  19. ^ "DemocracyNZ no longer registered". Electoral Commission. 16 February 2024.
  20. ^ "Leighton Baker Party no longer registered". Electoral Commission. 27 May 2024.
  21. ^ "New Zealand Loyal no longer registered". New Zealand Electoral Commission. 29 July 2024.
  22. ^ "Democratic Alliance no longer registered". New Zealand Electoral Commission. 28 November 2024.
  23. ^ "New Nation Party no longer registered". New Zealand Electoral Commission. 30 January 2025.
  24. ^ "Freedoms New Zealand no longer registered". New Zealand Electoral Commission. 2 May 2025.
  25. ^ Scanlon, Lee (26 January 2026). "Damien O'Connor not standing in West Coast-Tasman at next election". Radio New Zealand. Retrieved 26 January 2026.
  26. ^ "Former minister Bayly won't contest seat, looks to National list". 1News. 3 March 2026. Retrieved 3 March 2026.
  27. ^ McConnell, Glenn (21 October 2025). "Labour's Duncan Webb to stand down next year". Stuff. Retrieved 3 February 2026.
  28. ^ Cooke, Henry (16 December 2025). "National MP Paulo Garcia standing down at election". The Post. Stuff. Retrieved 16 December 2025.
  29. ^ Lynch, Chris (23 January 2026). "West Coast MP Maureen Pugh to retire at 2026 election". Chris Lynch Media. Chris Lynch Media.co.nz. Retrieved 23 January 2026.
  30. ^ Teodoro, Sue (28 January 2026). "Green MP Celia Wade-Brown to stand down at election". Radio New Zealand. Retrieved 28 January 2026.
  31. ^ Palmer, Russell (28 January 2026). "National's Judith Collins retires from politics, appointed Law Commission president". Radio New Zealand. Retrieved 28 January 2026.
  32. ^ Lynch, Jenna (10 March 2026). "Shane Reti to retire from politics". Stuff. Retrieved 10 March 2026.
  33. ^ Lynch, Chris (3 August 2025). "Megan Woods to step down as Wigram MP at next election". Chris Lynch Media. Chris Lynch Media.
  34. ^ "Nicola Willis to run as list-only candidate at 2026 election". 1News. 22 December 2025.
  35. ^ Manera, Ethan (21 January 2026). "Greg O'Connor confirms re-election bid, wants to become Speaker". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 24 January 2026.
  36. ^ Hancock, Farah (11 March 2026). "Queenstown-based tech entrepreneur Brian Cartmell donating hundreds of thousands to political parties". RNZ. Archived from the original on 11 March 2026. Retrieved 13 March 2026.
  37. ^ Hu, Justin (23 November 2025). "National reveals new KiwiSaver boost as first election policy". 1News. Archived from the original on 25 November 2025. Retrieved 25 November 2025.
  38. ^ "National to campaign on review of 'controversial' Hauraki Gulf commercial fishing rules". RNZ. 21 February 2026. Retrieved 21 February 2026.
  39. ^ Day, Tom (20 October 2025). "'NZ Future Fund': Labour reveals first major policy for next election". 1News. Archived from the original on 21 October 2025. Retrieved 22 October 2025.
  40. ^ McCulloch, Craig (28 October 2025). "Labour to campaign on narrow capital gains tax, no wealth tax". RNZ. Archived from the original on 29 October 2025. Retrieved 1 November 2025.
  41. ^ Gabel, Julia (6 November 2025). "Labour Party's latest election policy makes cervical screening free for all women aged 25–69". RNZ. Archived from the original on 7 November 2025. Retrieved 7 November 2025.
  42. ^ Palmer, Russell (13 November 2025). "Controversial Regulatory Standards Bill passes third reading". RNZ. Archived from the original on 13 November 2025. Retrieved 27 November 2025.
  43. ^ Smith, Anneke (28 November 2025). "Labour gathers for AGM as it shifts into campaign mode". Retrieved 27 November 2025.
  44. ^ "Election 2026: Labour proposes 'game-changing' streaming levy to fund local productions". RNZ. 15 January 2026. Archived from the original on 15 January 2026. Retrieved 15 January 2026.
  45. ^ "Watch Live: Labour and Greens speak from Waitangi Treaty grounds". 3 February 2026. Retrieved 4 February 2026.
  46. ^ "Green Party unveils new scheme promising to create thousands of 'green jobs'". Newstalk ZB. 1 May 2025. Archived from the original on 1 May 2025. Retrieved 1 May 2025.
  47. ^ Daalder, Marc (20 May 2025). "Greens try to set agenda on pre-Budget tax debate". Newsroom. Archived from the original on 19 May 2025. Retrieved 24 May 2025.
  48. ^ Gabel, Julia (17 November 2025). "'On notice': Green Party unveils mining policy ahead of 2026 general election". Newstalk ZB. Archived from the original on 17 November 2025. Retrieved 17 November 2025.
  49. ^ Palmer, Russell (5 February 2026). "Waitangi wrap: Speeches, celebrations and heckling". RNZ. Archived from the original on 5 February 2026. Retrieved 7 February 2026.
  50. ^ Ensor, Jamie (12 March 2026). "Election 2026: Green Party MPs suffer big drops in draft list, Tamatha Paul ranked high as party hypes Māori candidates". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
  51. ^ David Seymour (14 February 2026). ACT Party State of the Nation 2026 – Full Address. Christchurch, New Zealand: ACT New Zealand.
  52. ^ Hanly, Lillian (15 February 2026). "ACT leader David Seymour delivers 'State of the Nation' speech". RNZ. Archived from the original on 15 February 2026. Retrieved 15 February 2026.
  53. ^ Pearse, Adam (19 February 2026). "'More coherent': Seymour reveals first ministries he would axe". Newstalk ZB. Archived from the original on 19 February 2026. Retrieved 19 February 2026.
  54. ^ Smith, Anneke (20 November 2025). "Winston Peters vows to repeal Regulatory Standards Bill; David Seymour hits back". RNZ. Archived from the original on 22 November 2025. Retrieved 23 November 2025.
  55. ^ Smith, Anneke (10 February 2026). "NZ First to campaign on ministers getting final say in fast track projects". RNZ. Archived from the original on 10 February 2026. Retrieved 12 February 2026.
  56. ^ "#election2026: New Zealand First to Campaign for Referendum on Māori Seats". Waatea News. 12 February 2026. Retrieved 12 February 2026.
  57. ^ McConnell, Glenn (4 February 2025). "Te Pāti Māori issues coalition ultimatum, naming Treaty Commissioner as a 'bottom line'". Stuff. Archived from the original on 13 February 2025. Retrieved 13 February 2025.
  58. ^ "Te Pāti Māori to run candidates in general seats at next election". Radio New Zealand. 10 April 2025. Archived from the original on 10 April 2025. Retrieved 10 April 2025.
  59. ^ Gabel, Julia (26 January 2026). "Election 2026: Te Pāti Māori to campaign on abolishing prisons, Labour dead-set against it". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 26 January 2026.
  60. ^ "Platform". The Opportunity Party. Retrieved 14 February 2026.
  61. ^ Edmunds, Susan (13 February 2026). "Ditch NZ Super entirely, minor party says". RNZ. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026. Retrieved 14 February 2026.
  62. ^ Schmidt, Veronica (16 February 2026). "Iain Lees-Galloway on crashing out of parliament and his new Opportunity". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 16 February 2026. Retrieved 16 February 2026.
  63. ^ The Opportunity Party (21 February 2026). ""We Are The Next Generation Of Leaders" Says Qiulae Wong". Scoop. Archived from the original on 21 February 2026. Retrieved 22 February 2026.
  64. ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  65. ^ "Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: March 2026". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union.
  66. ^ Vance, Andrea (19 February 2026). "National struggles for traction as NZ First gains ground". The Post.
  67. ^ Day, Tom (16 February 2026). "Poll: Hipkins, Luxon neck and neck as preferred PM – Govt gets 5/10". 1 News.
  68. ^ "Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: February 2026". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union.
  69. ^ "In first Roy Morgan Poll of 2026 National opens largest lead on Labour for over a year – since September 2024". Roy Morgan.
  70. ^ "RNZ-Reid Research poll: View all results and charts". RNZ.
  71. ^ "Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: January 2026". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union.
  72. ^ "Entering 2026, the New Zealand Election due later this year remains on a knife-edge". Roy Morgan Press Release. 14 January 2026.
  73. ^ Vance, Andrea (17 December 2025). "New poll puts Labour well ahead of National - and in the box seat to form government". Stuff.
  74. ^ Day, Tom (8 December 2025). "Poll: Te Pāti Māori support crashes after weeks of in-fighting". 1 News.
  75. ^ "New Zealand: In November, National-led Government extends lead to largest since June 2025 Opposition". Roy Morgan Press Release. 2 December 2025.
  76. ^ Cooke, Henry (13 November 2025). "Labour surges to 38% in new poll - but still needs Te Pāti Māori". The Post.
  77. ^ "Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: November 2025". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union.
  78. ^ "New Zealand: In October, National-led Government edges ahead of Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition". Roy Morgan Press Release. 4 November 2025.
  79. ^ Cooke, Henry (15 October 2025). "National dips below 30% in second poll". The Post.
  80. ^ Day, Tom (8 October 2025). "Poll: Luxon and Hipkins' approval ratings tumble, coalition holds steady". 1 News.
  81. ^ Vance, Andrea. "New poll delivers hung Parliament, bad news for Christopher Luxon as preferred PM". The Post.
  82. ^ Ensor, Jamie (8 October 2025). "New poll: National dives into the 20s, NZ First climbs into double digits, centre-left bloc can govern". New Zealand Herald.
  83. ^ "New Zealand: In September, National-led Government and Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition are level". Roy Morgan Press Release. 29 September 2025.
  84. ^ "RNZ-Reid Research political poll points to deadlocked Parliament". RNZ.
  85. ^ "Weaker-than-expected economy, political polls turn on Christopher Luxon". The Post.
  86. ^ "Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: September 2025".
  87. ^ "New Zealand: In August, support for Labour surges to highest since the 2023 New Zealand Election". Roy Morgan Press Release. 2 September 2025.
  88. ^ Manch, Thomas (29 July 2025). "Poll suggests National headed to one-term Government". The Post.
  89. ^ Day, Tom (6 August 2025). "Poll: Labour surges, Luxon's popularity hits two-year low". 1 News.
  90. ^ "Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: August 2025".
  91. ^ "NZ: In July, National and Labour tied at 31%; National-led Government retains clear lead". Roy Morgan. 22 June 2025.
  92. ^ Manch, Thomas (22 July 2025). "Poll suggests National headed to one-term Government". The Post.
  93. ^ "Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: July 2025".
  94. ^ "NZ: In June, support for National-led Government surges to highest level so far this year". Roy Morgan. 22 June 2025.
  95. ^ "Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: June 2025".
  96. ^ Palmer, Russell (4 June 2025). "Left bloc would have enough support to turf coalition government out of power - poll". RNZ.
  97. ^ Day, Tom (3 June 2025). "Poll: NZ First keep rising as National and Labour fall". 1 News.
  98. ^ "NZ: In May, for an eighth straight month, both National and Labour are supported by fewer than a third of the electorate". Roy Morgan. 10 June 2025.
  99. ^ "Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll: May 2025".
  100. ^ "NZ: In April, for a third straight month, both the National-led Government and Parliamentary opposition were under 50% support". Roy Morgan. 6 May 2025.
  101. ^ Day, Tom (7 April 2025). "Poll: National and NZ First up, coalition would get second term". 1 News.
  102. ^ "Labour, Te Pāti Māori lose ground - April Taxpayers Union-Curia poll". RNZ. 4 April 2025.
  103. ^ McCulloch, Craig (1 April 2025). "RNZ-Reid Research poll: Coalition in front as Labour gains ground". RNZ.
  104. ^ "NZ: In March both the National-led Government and Labour-led Parliamentary opposition were under 50% support". Roy Morgan. 1 April 2025.
  105. ^ McConnell, Glenn (14 March 2025). "Labour leader takes swipe at PM after another poll defeat for National". Stuff.
  106. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: March 2025". Taxpayers' Union. 10 March 2025.
  107. ^ "National-led Government and Labour-led Parliamentary opposition tied on 47.5% each in February". Roy Morgan. 11 March 2025.
  108. ^ Day, Tom (10 February 2025). "Poll: Left bloc could form govt as National slides". 1 News.
  109. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2025". Taxpayers' Union. 10 February 2025.
  110. ^ Whyte, Anna (4 February 2025). "Another poll puts Labour support ahead of National". The Post.
  111. ^ "Support for National-led Government down in January although support for National increases". Roy Morgan. 4 February 2025.
  112. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: January 2025". Taxpayers' Union. 17 January 2025.
  113. ^ "Support for National-led Government increases in December with National, ACT and NZ First all up". Roy Morgan. 21 January 2025.
  114. ^ Day, Tom (9 December 2024). "Poll: Record high for Te Pāti Māori, coalition still in driving seat". 1 News.
  115. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: December 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  116. ^ Witton, Bridie (1 December 2024). "Labour pulls ahead of National in internal polling, as Hipkins plans tax pitch". Stuff.
  117. ^ Vance, Andrea (2 December 2024). "New poll delivers hung Parliament, bad news for Christopher Luxon as preferred PM". Stuff.
  118. ^ "National support down again in November as Government seeks to redefine the Treaty of Waitangi". Roy Morgan. 3 December 2024.
  119. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  120. ^ Coughlan, Thomas (22 November 2024). "Hīkoi's influence will be felt for years, but Treaty bill still popular - Thomas Couglan". NZ Herald.
  121. ^ "National support down significantly in October after the sinking of HMNZS Manawanui in Samoa". Roy Morgan. 6 November 2024.
  122. ^ Desmarais, Felix (14 October 2024). "Poll: Coalition remain in front, but Labour gain seats". 1 News.
  123. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  124. ^ "National support up in September as National-led Government increases lead to 14% points after RBNZ cut interest ratess". Roy Morgan. 8 October 2024.
  125. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: September 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  126. ^ Ensor, Jamie (19 September 2024). "New poll results show closer fight between Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon for preferred Prime Minister". NZ Herald.
  127. ^ "National support up in August as National-led Government increases lead to 10% points and RBNZ cut interest rates". Roy Morgan. 3 September 2024.
  128. ^ Desmarais, Felix (19 August 2024). "Poll: Voters warming to Luxon as PM, party votes hold firm". 1 News.
  129. ^ "National support lowest since the election but Labour support also down as support for minor parties increases in July". Roy Morgan. 6 August 2024.
  130. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: July 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  131. ^ "National support increases marginally in June as support for Labour slumps back below 30%". Roy Morgan. 2 July 2024.
  132. ^ Desmarais, Felix (25 June 2024). "Poll: Government coalition makes up lost ground as NZ First lifts". 1 News.
  133. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: June 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  134. ^ "Prime Minister Luxon's honeymoon is over as National support crashes to lowest since the NZ Election after sacking two ministers in late April". Roy Morgan. 28 May 2024.
  135. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll May 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  136. ^ Edwards, Bryce (1 May 2024). "Political Roundup: Discontent and gloom dominate NZ's political mood". NZ Herald.
  137. ^ Desmarais, Felix (29 April 2024). "Poll: Labour could return to power if election held today". 1 News.
  138. ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (53%) lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori (43%) – cut to 10% points in April". Roy Morgan. 30 April 2024.
  139. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: April 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  140. ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (55%) increase lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 41% – now at 14% points". Roy Morgan. 8 March 2024.
  141. ^ Coughlan, Thomas (16 February 2024). "National extends lead in latest Talbot-Mills poll, Chris Hipkins falls". New Zealand Herald.
  142. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  143. ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (51.5%) strengthen lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42%". Roy Morgan. 9 February 2024.
  144. ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First with majority support of 51.5% ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42.5%". Roy Morgan. 30 January 2024.
  145. ^ Coughlan, Thomas (12 December 2023). "Support for Christopher Luxon drops, NZ First overtakes Act in new poll". New Zealand Herald.
  146. ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 9 November 2023.
  147. ^ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.