2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election

Not to be confused with 2026 Scarborough Southwest federal by-election.

A by-election will be held in the provincial riding of Scarborough Southwest in Ontario, Canada, following the resignation of incumbent NDP MPP Doly Begum on February 3, 2026.[1] Premier Ford is not expected to call the by-election until the summer; the writ for the by-election must be issued by August 3, 2026 with the date of the by-election being a Thursday no later than 36 days after the writ is issued.[2]

Background

On February 2, 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Bill Blair, a former cabinet minister, would resign as member of Parliament for the federal riding of Scarborough Southwest to accept an appointment as Canada’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. Blair had previously served as minister of public safety and minister of national defence.[3][4]

On February 3, the Liberal Party of Canada announced Doly Begum as their candidate for the resulting by-election. Begum was serving as member of Provincial Parliament for the provincial riding of Scarborough Southwest and the Deputy Leader of the ONDP. She resigned from her seat on the same day as well as her membership in the ONDP.[1][5]

Potential candidates

Liberal

Seeking nomination

Potential candidates

Declined

  • Ali Demircan, President of the Federation of Canadian Turkish Associations. (endorsed Erskine-Smith).[10][6]

Previous result

2025 Ontario general election: Scarborough Southwest
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
New Democratic Doly Begum 14,557 42.89 –4.79 $120,161
Progressive Conservative Addie Dramola 10,400 30.65 +3.05 $45,342
Liberal Qadira Jackson 7,786 22.94 +4.38 $39,544
Green Mark Bekkering 1,194 3.52 –0.02 $3,247
Total valid votes/expense limit 33,937 99.31 ±0.00 $131,827
Total rejected, unmarked, and declined ballots 235 0.69 ±0.00
Turnout 34,172 41.96 –2.38
Eligible voters 81,434
New Democratic hold Swing –3.92
Source: Elections Ontario[11]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Westoll, Nick (February 3, 2026). "Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum resigning, named federal Liberal candidate to succeed Bill Blair". CityNews Toronto. Retrieved February 4, 2026.
  2. ^ a b "Doug Ford expected to wait until summer for Scarborough Southwest byelection". Toronto Star. February 6, 2026. Retrieved February 6, 2026.
  3. ^ Robertson, Dylan (February 2, 2026). "Bill Blair to resign Toronto seat, become next high commissioner to U.K." The Globe and Mail. Retrieved February 2, 2026.
  4. ^ "Bill Blair resigning seat, will become next high commissioner to U.K." CTV News. The Canadian Press. February 2, 2026. Retrieved February 2, 2026.
  5. ^ "Ontario NDP MPP resigns to run for federal Liberals in upcoming byelection". Global News. February 3, 2026. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  6. ^ a b c "TVO Today | Current Affairs Journalism, Documentaries and Podcasts". www.tvo.org. Retrieved March 17, 2026.
  7. ^ Talbot, Michael (February 3, 2026). "Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith to seek nomination in provincial Scarborough riding being vacated by NDP's Doly Begum". CityNews Toronto. Retrieved February 4, 2026.
  8. ^ McGrath, John Michael (February 5, 2026). "ANALYSIS: Nate Erskine-Smith just got his luckiest break yet". TVO. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  9. ^ a b Benzie, Robert; Welsh, Moira; Ferguson, Rob (February 5, 2026). "Ontario Liberals divided over Nate Erskine-Smith byelection bid". Toronto Star. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  10. ^ "Let the race begin". www.policorner.ca. Retrieved February 9, 2026.
  11. ^ "Vote Totals From Official Tabulation" (PDF). Elections Ontario. March 3, 2025. Retrieved March 4, 2025.
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