2026 Farrer by-election
9 May 2026
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Division of Farrer (NSW) in the House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Division of Farrer in New South Wales | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election will be held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. The election follows the resignation of former opposition leader and former Liberal MP Sussan Ley.[1][2]
It will be the first by-election since the 2025 federal election, the first during Angus Taylor's leadership of the Liberals, the first during Matt Canavan's leadership of the Nationals, and the fifth during Anthony Albanese's tenure as prime minister.
Key dates
- Issue of writ — 1 April 2026
- Close of roll — 8 April 2026
- Close of nominations — 13 April 2026
- Polling day — 9 May 2026
- Return of writ — On or before 10 July 2026[3]
Background
Resignation
A leadership spill of the Liberal party room was held on 13 February 2026, where Sussan Ley was defeated by Angus Taylor 34 votes to 17 for the leadership of the party.[4] Following the defeat, Ley fronted a press conference where she announced that she would resign from parliament "in the next couple of weeks".[5]
On 27 February 2026, Ley officially submitted her retirement.[6] On 5 March 2026, the Speaker of the House, Milton Dick, announced the by-election would be held on 9 May 2026.[7]
Seat details
Farrer is located in the far south-western area of New South Wales and includes the towns of Albury, Corowa, Narrandera, Leeton, Griffith, Deniliquin, Hay, Balranald and Wentworth. A conservative seat, the seat has historically been a safe Liberal seat since Ley first won it in 2001, though the Liberal Party suffered a 10% swing against it on the two-candidate preferred vote against an independent candidate in 2025, and won the seat on a reduced margin of 56.19% to 43.81%.[8]
| Election | 1990 | 1993 | 1996 | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 32.21% | 32.57% | 28.77% | 35.38% | N/a | 30.18% | 38.83% | 35.49% | 32.57% | 29.47% | 30.17% | 33.65% | 37.11% | |
| Liberal | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 50.14% | 69.82% | 61.17% | 64.51% | 67.43% | 70.53% | 69.83% | 66.35% | 62.89% | |
| National | 67.79% | 67.43% | 71.23% | 64.62% | 49.86% | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | |
| Government | ALP | ALP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | ALP | ALP | L/NP | L/NP | L/NP | ALP | ALP | |
2025 election results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Sussan Ley | 44,743 | 43.41 | −8.85 | |
| Independent | Michelle Milthorpe | 20,567 | 19.96 | +19.96 | |
| Labor | Glen Hyde | 15,551 | 15.09 | −3.90 | |
| One Nation | Emma Hicks | 6,803 | 6.60 | +0.27 | |
| Greens | Richard Hendrie | 5,085 | 4.93 | −4.18 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Peter Sinclair | 3,577 | 3.47 | −1.84 | |
| Trumpet of Patriots | Tanya Hargraves | 2,441 | 2.37 | +2.37 | |
| Family First | Rebecca Scriven | 2,218 | 2.15 | +2.15 | |
| People First | David O'Reilly | 2,078 | 2.02 | +2.02 | |
| Total formal votes | 103,063 | 90.97 | −1.44 | ||
| Informal votes | 10,234 | 9.03 | +1.44 | ||
| Turnout | 113,297 | 91.55 | +2.11 | ||
| Notional two-party-preferred count | |||||
| Liberal | Sussan Ley | 64,812 | 62.89 | −3.46 | |
| Labor | Glen Hyde | 38,251 | 37.11 | +3.46 | |
| Two-candidate-preferred result | |||||
| Liberal | Sussan Ley | 57,916 | 56.19 | −10.16 | |
| Independent | Michelle Milthorpe | 45,147 | 43.81 | +43.81 | |
| Liberal hold | |||||
Candidates
Media have characterised the by-election as a four-way race between the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.[10][11][12]
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Family First | Rebecca Scriven | School worker and eighth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[13] | |
| Greens | Richard Hendrie | Mental health worker and fifth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025 | |
| Independent | Michelle Milthorpe | Teacher, business owner and second-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025[14][15] | |
| Independent | Jordi Queiruga | Economist and heritage group volunteer executive[16] | |
| Liberal | Raissa Butkowski | Lawyer and City of Albury councillor | |
| National | Brad Robertson | Australian Army veteran and former commander, Albury branch chair[17][18] | |
| One Nation | David Farley | Former CEO of AACo and irrigation specialist[19] | |
| People First | TBA | ||
Liberal
On 23 February, The Australian reported that "the Right faction of the Liberal Party has gained control of candidate preselection in a bid to stem the leakage of votes to One Nation". State Liberal MP Justin Clancy publicly expressed interest in running as the Liberals candidate; shortly after taking office as leader of the Liberal Party Angus Taylor called Clancy to discuss the by-election.[20] On 27 February, Justin Clancy ruled out contesting Farrer. Nominations for Liberal preselection in Farrer closed on 2 March.[21] Media reported former Susan Ley staffer Lachlan McIntyre, and Albury councillor and lawyer Raissa Butkowski as candidates.[22] The Liberal Party held their preselection vote on 15 March.[23]
On 15 March, the Liberal Party preselected lawyer for the Hume Riverina Community Legal Service and City of Albury councillor Raissa Butkowski to contest the by-election. Butkowski is also a member of the Murray-Darling Association, an organisation that advocates for local government and water issues.[24]
National
The National Party will contest Farrer for the first time since losing the seat in 2001, since Coalition rules in New South Wales forbid parties from running a candidate in a sitting Coalition MP's seat.[25] Media reported former Nationals senator Perin Davey, Albury mayor Kevin Mack, the party's branch chairman Brad Robertson and Murray Irrigation Ltd director Gabrielle Coupland as potential candidates.[20][18] Marty Corboy, the Nationals candidate for neighbouring Indi in 2016, endorsed Perin Davey.[26] The Nationals selected Robertson as their candidate on 8 March.[17] Robertson is an Australian Army veteran and former commander.[17]
One Nation
On 13 February, party leader Pauline Hanson announced that One Nation will contest the by-election.[27] On 27 February, One Nation announced that David Farley, Leigh Wolki and Guy Cooper were the three candidates seeking pre-selection, following a process that assessed 80 candidates.[28] On 7 March, David Farley won preselection as One Nation candidate.[19] Hanson said it was the first time a branch had selected its own candidate.[29]
Farley is a Narrandera-based agricultural businessman. He was formerly the CEO of Australian Agricultural Company.[29] He was recently elected chair of the lobby group Speak Up 4 Water. He became a member of One Nation before Sussan Ley resigned.[18]
Independent
Michelle Milthorpe was an independent candidate in the 2025 election and was supported by the community group Voices of Farrer and the Climate 200 fundraising organisation.[30] On 13 February, she announced her intention to contest the by-election.[14]
Milthorpe is a teacher from Jindera and an advocate for child abuse victims.[15]
Other candidates
Family First will run Rebecca Scriven, an independent Christian school worker who ran for the party in 2025.[13]
The Greens will contest the by-election.[31] They will run Richard Hendrie, a mental health worker who ran for the party in 2025.[32]
On 14 February, Gerard Rennick announced that People First will contest the by-election.[33]
Jordi Queiruga, an economist who has worked for the Productivity Commission and is a volunteer executive for a not-for-profit heritage group, will run as an independent.[16]
On 23 February, Anthony Albanese said the Australian Labor Party would decide whether to contest the by-election "once Sussan Ley actually resigns."[34]
Not contesting
Helen Dalton, independent state MP for the electoral district of Murray, was viewed as a potential challenger for the seat, with Dalton claiming that her mobile phone had "been burning up" since Ley's resignation.[35] Dalton was also approached to run for the seat as a One Nation candidate.[36] On 5 March, Dalton confirmed that she would not be a candidate.[37]
Darren De Bortoli, the managing director of De Bortoli Wines, said he was approached to run by multiple parties but declined all offers.[38]
Campaign
The media resurfaced comments made by One Nation candidate David Farley in 2012 where he likened then-Prime Minister Julia Gillard to a "non-productive old cow". Farley and Pauline Hanson described the comments as tongue-in-cheek.[39]
Opinion polling
| Date | Firm | Sample size |
Margin of error |
Primary vote | 2CP vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | NAT | Milthorpe (IND) |
ALP | ONP | GRN | OTH | UND | LIB | Milthorpe (IND) | |||||
| 5–6 Mar 2026 | uComms[a][40] | 1,281 | ±2.73% | 19.1% | 5.2% | 23.3% | 9.0% | 28.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 8.6% | N/a | N/a | |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Sussan Ley resigns as an MP | |||||||||||||
| 3 May 2025 | 2025 federal election | 43.4% | — | 20.0% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 10.0% | — | 56.2% | 43.8% | |||
Endorsements
Michelle Milthorpe was endorsed by David Pocock, independent senator for the Australian Capital Territory, and Helen Haines, independent MP for the neighbouring electorate of Indi, at a campaign event in Albury on 6 March.[41]
Helen Dalton, independent state MP for the electoral district of Murray, will consider endorsing whichever candidate would push strong water reform and support a Royal Commission into the Murray-Darling Basin.[37]
How-to-vote cards
Political parties recommend to voters how they should preference candidates through "how-to-vote cards" distributed by campaign volunteers near polling places. Parties often make agreements between themselves about these recommendations. Preferences are expected to play a key role in the by-election.[42]
The Liberals will recommended preferences be directed to the Nationals second, and the Nationals will recommended preferences be directed to the Liberals second. On 5 March, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg publicly urged his party to preference One Nation last.[43]
Michelle Milthorpe will not ask voters to direct preferences, just as she did not at the last election.[20]
See also
Notes
- ^ Commissioned by The Australia Institute.
References
- ^ Briggs, Casey (13 February 2026). "Ley leaves Taylor an immediate electoral test with Farrer by-election". ABC News. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
- ^ Raue, Ben (13 February 2026). "Farrer by-election coming soon". The Tally Room. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
- ^ "2026 Farrer by-election: Saturday 9 May 2026". aec.gov.au. 5 March 2026.
- ^ Michelle Grattan (13 February 2026). "Angus Taylor defeats Sussan Ley by hefty margin of 34–17 as Liberal leader". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026.
- ^ Boscaini, Joshua; Gould, Courtney; Crowley, Tom. "Federal politics live: Angus Taylor overwhelmingly wins Liberal leadership, Sussan Ley to quit politics, setting up by-election". ABC News. Archived from the original on 12 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
- ^ "Farrer by-election". aph.gov.au. Australian Parliament House. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 27 February 2026.
- ^ Michelle Grattan. "Farrer byelection will be on May 9". The Conversation.
- ^ "Farrer, NSW". aec.gov.au. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026.
- ^ "Farrer, NSW". Australian Electoral Commission. 3 May 2025. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
- ^ Grattan, Michelle (5 March 2026). "Farrer byelection will be on May 9". The Conversation.
The main contenders for the seat with be the Liberal Party, the Nationals, One Nation and at least one high-profile independent, Michelle Milthorpe.
- ^ de Silva, Zac; Brown, Andrew (5 March 2026). "Date locked in for Liberals' crucial by-election test". Australian Associated Press.
A four-way race is expected to choose Ms Ley's replacement, with the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and Climate 200-backed independent Michelle Milthorpe planning to run.
- ^ "Four-way battle begins for Farrer by-election". Seven News.
The race will pit One Nation against the Liberals, Nationals and a Climate 200 independent, with Labor not fielding a candidate.
- ^ a b "Family First announces local mum of four Rebecca Scriven as candidate for Farrer" (Press release). Family First Party. 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
- ^ a b "Independent Michelle Milthorpe to contests Farrer". Back Country Bulletin. 13 February 2026. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 14 February 2026.
- ^ a b Jacques, Oliver (5 October 2024). "'We deserve more': advocate for child abuse victims to run for seat of Farrer". Region Riverina. Archived from the original on 5 October 2024. Retrieved 14 February 2026.
- ^ a b "Farrer By-election 2026". www.abc.net.au. Retrieved 18 March 2026.
- ^ a b c Basta, Jostina; Scully, Jess; McCutcheon, Jen (8 March 2026). "Nationals select former military commander Brad Robertson to contest Farrer". ABC News. Retrieved 8 March 2026.
- ^ a b c Vidal, Paulina (3 March 2026). "Farrer by-election heats up". Southern Riverina News.
- ^ a b Newling, Nick (7 March 2026). "One Nation selects byelection candidate as Hanson declares Albanese is scared to run". Brisbane Times. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 7 March 2026.
- ^ a b c "Teal's boost for One Nation in Sussan Ley's seat". The Australian. 16 February 2026.
- ^ Johnston, David (27 February 2026). "Albury MP Justin Clancy rules out contesting federal seat of Farrer". The Weekly Times.
- ^ "Look at the Liberal hopefuls vying to replace Sussan Ley in the seat of Farrer". The Border Mail. 9 March 2026. Archived from the original on 9 March 2026. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
- ^ "D-day reached for the Liberal Party on the road to byelection to replace Sussan". The Border Mail. 11 March 2026. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
- ^ Perez, Philippe (15 March 2026). "Raissa Butkowski to contest Farrer for Liberals after Sussan Ley's resignation". ABC News. Archived from the original on 15 March 2026. Retrieved 15 March 2026.
- ^ "The Coalition to face a messy by-election in Sussan Ley's seat of Farrer". Antony Green's Election Blog. 13 February 2026. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
- ^ Johnston, David (25 February 2026). "Six candidates in contention for One Nation's Farrer challenge". The Weekly Times.
- ^ Hanson, Pauline [@PaulineHansonOz] (13 February 2026). "I want to wish Sussan Ley all the best in her future outside of politics" (Tweet). Retrieved 13 February 2026 – via X (formerly Twitter).
- ^ "One Nation reveals three-way contest for Farrer candidacy". Pauline Hanson's One Nation. 27 February 2026. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 27 February 2026.
- ^ a b Vidal, Paulina (7 March 2026). "One Nation selects agricultural businessman David Farley to contest Farrer by-election in NSW". ABC News.
- ^ "TEAL DEAL: Billionaire's son joins fight to turn Farrer a new shade of blue". The Border Mail. 30 January 2025. Archived from the original on 30 January 2025. Retrieved 14 February 2026.
- ^ Cohn, Amanda [@DrAmandaCohn] (13 February 2026). "Albury-Wodonga desperately needs a new hospital on a new site. A by-election in Farrer will shine the national spotlight on our region. This is a huge opportunity, and the Greens are ready" (Tweet). Retrieved 13 February 2026 – via X (formerly Twitter).
- ^ "'Underdog in this race': Greens announce candidate for Farrer byelection". Border Mail. 10 March 2026. Retrieved 15 March 2026.
- ^ Rennick, Gerard [@RennickGBR] (14 February 2026). "People First is still here and we are pleased to announce we are running a candidate in the seat of Farrer. Nominations are now open" (Tweet). Retrieved 16 February 2026 – via X (formerly Twitter).
- ^ Coorey, Phillip (23 February 2026). "PM taunts Coalition as Labor flirts with running in Farrer byelection". Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 23 February 2026. Retrieved 23 February 2026.
- ^ "Helen Dalton Considers Federal Leap: "My Mobile Has Been Burning Up"". Back Country Bulletin. 13 February 2026. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
- ^ Rowley, Jarryd (16 February 2026). "Dalton approached by One Nation to run for Sussan Ley's federal seat". Region Riverina. Archived from the original on 16 February 2026. Retrieved 16 February 2026.
- ^ a b "Why MP won't run for Ley's old seat after talks with One Nation". Herald Sun. 5 March 2026. Retrieved 5 March 2026.
- ^ Jacques, Oliver (28 February 2026). "Independent favoured to win Farrer by-election by bookies as Liberal MP confirms he won't run". Region Riverina.
- ^ McIlroy, Tom; Dhanji, Krishani (8 March 2026). "One Nation candidate contesting Sussan Ley's seat likened Julia Gillard to 'non-productive old cow'". The Guardian.
- ^ "Poll Report" (PDF). The Australia Institute. 9 March 2026. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 March 2026. Retrieved 10 March 2026.
- ^ De Silva, Zac (27 February 2026). "Ousted leader formally resigns, triggering by-election". InDaily. Archived from the original on 27 February 2026. Retrieved 10 March 2026.
Fellow independents David Pocock and Helen Haines will publicly endorse Milthorpe on Friday
- ^ "Campaign Starts". Deniliquin Pastoral Times. 23 February 2026.
- ^ Quail, Jack (5 March 2026). "Farrer by-election set for May 9 in test for Angus Taylor, Pauline Hanson". The Australian.
On Thursday, outspoken Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg urged his party to preference One Nation last at Farrer, arguing the Liberals decision to relegate Senator Hanson's outfit to the bottom of its how-to-vote-cards in previous polls was "pretty sound".