2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

Not to be confused with 2024 New Mexico Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico
November 5, 2024
Turnout65.3%
 
Nominee Martin Heinrich Nella Domenici
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 497,333 405,978
Percentage 55.06% 44.94%
Heinrich:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Domenici:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican financier Nella Domenici.[1] Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed.[2] Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.

Heinrich was first elected in 2012 by a 5.7-point margin, succeeding longtime Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman. In 2018, Heinrich was reelected to his second term by an overwhelming 23.6-point margin, but this was largely due to the presence of third-party candidate and former governor of the state Gary Johnson, who ran as a Libertarian and garnered over 15% of the vote. Come Election Day in 2024, Heinrich was reelected to a third term in office by 10.12%, receiving 55.1% of the statewide vote to Domenici's 44.9%. While an underperformance of his 2018 margin, his margin of victory was an overperformance of Kamala Harris' 6-point victory in the state in the concurrent presidential election.

Heinrich also held his own quite well at a county-by-county level, particularly when compared to the performances of Kamala Harris. For example, Heinrich carried the counties of Guadalupe and Cibola by 21.7% and 13.2%, respectively, which Harris carried in the concurrent presidential election by meager margins of 0.72% and 1.6%, respectively. Heinrich also carried Socorro County by around 4.8%, which was carried by Donald Trump in the presidential race by around 4%.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D) $9,067,125 $5,341,198 $4,380,901
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Results

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 122,961 100.0%
Total votes 122,961 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nella Domenici (R) $1,525,766 $464,576 $1,061,190
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Results

Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Nella Domenici 79,809 100.0%
Total votes 79,809 100.0%

Independents and third-party candidates

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Cameron Chick (Independent), businessman[7]
  • Ben Luna (Independence Party), businessman[8]
  • Jerry Rose (Independent)[9]
  • Tom Wakely (Green)[10]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Solid D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[12] Solid D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Safe D November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] Likely D October 30, 2024
Elections Daily[15] Safe D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[16] Solid D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[17] Lean D August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[18] Likely D October 30, 2024
538[19] Solid D October 23, 2024

Endorsements

Martin Heinrich (D)
Organizations

Labor unions

Nella Domenici (R)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D) $12,502,263 $10,330,618 $2,826,618
Nella Domenici (R) $4,777,524[a] $4,377,754 $399,769
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Nella
Domenici (R) 		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[33] through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 38.9% 12.7% Heinrich +9.5
RCP[34] June 13 – October 26, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.7% 39.3% 12.0% Heinrich +9.4
270ToWin[35] October 22 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 50.5% 44.5% 5.0% Heinrich +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ[36] through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 50.8% 43.1% 6.1% Heinrich +7.7%
Average 49.6% 41.5% 8.9% Heinrich +8.1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Nella
Domenici (R) 		Other Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[37] November 1–3, 2024 600 (LV) – 50% 48% – 1%
Research & Polling Inc.[38][A] October 10–18, 2024 1,024 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 40% 1%[d] 7%
SurveyUSA[39][B] September 12–18, 2024 619 (LV) ± 5.4% 47% 34% – 19%
Research & Polling Inc.[40][A] September 6–13, 2024 532 (LV) ± 4.2% 50% 38% 4%[e] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[41][C] September 6–9, 2024 521 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 37% 6%[f] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[42][C] August 25–28, 2024 488 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 33% 4%[g] 19%
Emerson College[43][D] August 20–22, 2024 965 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 37% 4%[h] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[44][C] August 12–15, 2024 453 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 36% 7%[i] 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[45][C] July 31 – August 3, 2024 493 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 34% 4%[j] 21%
1892 Polling (R)[46][E] June 19–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[47][F] June 13–14, 2024 555 (V) ± 4.2% 47% 40% – 13%
Red Oak Strategies (R)[48][E] May 7–19, 2024 1,800 (LV) ± 2.3% 41% 38% – 21%
1892 Polling (R)[46][E] March 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 36% – –

Results

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico[49]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 497,333 55.06% +0.97%
Republican Nella Domenici 405,978 44.94% +14.41%
Total votes 903,311 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

County[50] Martin Heinrich

Democratic

Nella Domenici

Republican

Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # %
Bernalillo 187,163 61.42% 117,575 38.58% 69,588 22.84% 304,738
Catron 615 26.84% 1,676 73.16% -1,061 -46.31% 2,291
Chaves 6,723 31.10% 14,891 68.90% -8,168 -37.79% 21,614
Cibola 4,955 56.59% 3,801 43.41% 1,154 13.18% 8,756
Colfax 2,706 47.17% 3,031 52.83% -325 -5.66% 5,737
Curry 4,532 30.81% 10,176 69.19% -5,644 -38.37% 14,708
De Baca 268 31.42% 585 68.58% -317 -37.16% 853
Doña Ana 46,715 56.24% 36,355 43.76% 10,360 12.47% 83,070
Eddy 5,979 26.28% 16,775 73.72% -10,796 -47.45% 22,754
Grant 7,800 55.98% 6,133 44.02% 1,667 11.96% 13,933
Guadalupe 1,143 60.86% 735 39.14% 408 21.73% 1,878
Harding 138 32.86% 282 67.14% -144 -34.29% 420
Hidalgo 785 44.48% 980 55.52% -195 -11.05% 1,765
Lea 4,563 22.35% 15,852 77.65% -11,289 -55.30% 20,415
Lincoln 3,270 32.78% 6,706 67.22% -3,436 -34.44% 9,976
Los Alamos 7,761 64.00% 4,365 36.00% 3,396 28.01% 12,126
Luna 3,547 45.76% 4,205 54.24% -658 -8.49% 7,752
McKinley 17,064 67.56% 8,195 32.44% 8,869 35.11% 25,259
Mora 1,532 63.89% 866 36.11% 666 27.77% 2,398
Otero 9,229 39.48% 14,147 60.52% -4,918 -21.04% 23,376
Quay 1,174 32.79% 2,406 67.21% -1,232 -34.41% 3,580
Rio Arriba 10,035 64.50% 5,524 35.50% 4,511 28.99% 15,559
Roosevelt 1,951 29.97% 4,559 70.03% -2,608 -40.06% 6,510
San Juan 19,078 37.05% 32,417 62.95% -13,339 -25.90% 51,495
San Miguel 7,447 68.48% 3,427 31.52% 4,020 36.97% 10,874
Sandoval 42,473 54.15% 35,959 45.85% 6,514 8.31% 78,432
Santa Fe 62,312 75.53% 20,183 24.47% 42,129 51.07% 82,495
Sierra 2,553 43.85% 3,269 56.15% -716 -12.30% 5,822
Socorro 3,704 52.40% 3,365 47.60% 339 4.80% 7,069
Taos 12,457 76.40% 3,849 23.60% 8,608 52.79% 16,306
Torrance 2,454 34.78% 4,601 65.22% -2,147 -30.43% 7,055
Union 397 24.39% 1,231 75.61% -834 -51.23% 1,628
Valencia 14,810 45.34% 17,857 54.66% -3,047 -9.33% 32,667
Totals 497,333 55.06% 405,978 44.94% 91,355 10.11% 903,311

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Heinrich won all three congressional districts.[51]

District Heinrich Domenici Representative
1st 57.1% 42.9% Melanie Stansbury
2nd 52.0% 48.0% Gabe Vasquez
3rd 55.4% 44.6% Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

  1. ^ $1,510,000 of this total was self-funded by Domenici
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ "Neither" with 1%
  5. ^ "Neither" with 4%
  6. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; and "Other" with 2%
  7. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 2%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  9. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
  10. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Albuquerque Journal
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by KOB
  3. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  5. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Domenici
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by New Mexico Political Report

References

  1. ^ a b Boetel, Ryan (May 4, 2023). "Heinrich announces re-election campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  2. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - New Mexico". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  4. ^ a b "2024 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.
  5. ^ Mutnick, Ally (January 16, 2023). "Daughter of former GOP senator launches Senate run in New Mexico". Politico. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  6. ^ Cook, Cathy (February 13, 2024). "Former Bernalillo County sheriff disqualified from Senate race". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  7. ^ "CHICK, CAMERON MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  8. ^ "LUNA, BENJAMIN RALPH #1728 - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  9. ^ "ROSE, JERRY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  10. ^ "WAKELY, THOMAS JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  12. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  13. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  14. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  15. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  16. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  17. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  18. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  19. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  20. ^ "314 Action Fund Endorses New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich for re-election". 314 Action.
  21. ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  22. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  23. ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  24. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  25. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  26. ^ "Martin Heinrich". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  27. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  28. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  29. ^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  30. ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  31. ^ "AFSCME Council 18 Endorsements - New Mexico". AFSCME Council 18. May 20, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  32. ^ Ross, Alex (January 21, 2024). "Domenici nets signatures needed for primary ballot". Roswell Daily Record. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  33. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  34. ^ RCP
  35. ^ 270ToWin
  36. ^ TheHill/DDHQ
  37. ^ Victory Insights (R)
  38. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  39. ^ SurveyUSA
  40. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  41. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  42. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  43. ^ Emerson College
  44. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  45. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  46. ^ a b 1892 Polling (R)
  47. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  48. ^ Red Oak Strategies (R)
  49. ^ Toulouse Oliver, Maggie (November 26, 2024). "Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 5, 2024" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 5, 2025. Retrieved February 2, 2026.
  50. ^ Toulouse Oliver, Maggie (November 25, 2024). "Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 5, 2024" (PDF). Secretary of State of New Mexico. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 4, 2025. Retrieved January 31, 2026.
  51. ^ "2024 U.S. Senate Election in New Mexico by Congressional District".

Official campaign websites

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