2014 Alaska gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2014 United States gubernatorial elections.

2014 Alaska gubernatorial election
November 4, 2014
 
Nominee Bill Walker Sean Parnell
Party Independent Republican
Alliance Democratic
Running mate Byron Mallott Dan Sullivan
Popular vote 134,658 128,435
Percentage 48.10% 45.88%
Walker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Parnell:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election

Sean Parnell
Republican

Elected Governor

Bill Walker
Independent

The 2014 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska, concurrently with the election of Alaska's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican governor Sean Parnell ran for re-election to a second full term in office, but incumbent lieutenant governor Mead Treadwell instead chose to run for the U.S. Senate. Primary elections were held on August 19, 2014, to determine party nominees for the office, with separate primaries held for governor and lieutenant governor and the winners running together on the same ticket.

Parnell was renominated; his running mate was Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan.[1] The Democrats nominated businessman and former executive director of the Alaska Permanent Fund Byron Mallott, whose running mate was State Senator Hollis French. Also running as an independent was former Republican mayor of Valdez Bill Walker, whose running mate was Craig Fleener, the former deputy commissioner of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

On September 2, 2014, Walker and Mallott merged their campaigns to appear on the November ballot as a single independent ticket, which the Alaska Democratic Party endorsed. On this ticket, Walker ran for governor with Mallott as his running mate. Both candidates' former running mates withdrew.[2] Parnell was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. The consensus among The Cook Political Report, Governing, The Rothenberg Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Daily Kos Elections, and others was that the contest was a tossup. Former Republican governor Sarah Palin, who had praised Parnell as her successor when she resigned in 2009, endorsed Walker and Mallott, taking issue with Parnell's tax cuts for the oil and gas industry.

On November 7, Walker and Mallott held a 3,165-vote lead,[3] which on November 11 had grown to 4,004 out of some 244,000 votes cast, or 1.6%.[4] Walker began preparing for a transition but the race remained officially uncalled and Parnell refused to concede.[5][6][7][8][9] On November 14, after Walker and Mallott extended their lead to 4,634 votes,[10] multiple media outlets called the race.[11][12] Parnell conceded the following day.[13] His loss – coupled with Democrat Mark Begich's defeat in the U.S. Senate election – marked just the fifth time in the last 50 years in which an incumbent governor and senator from different political parties were defeated in the same state in the same election cycle.[14][a]

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sean
Parnell 		Bill
Walker 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] July 25–28, 2013 507 ± 4.4% 60% 22% 18%

Results

Republican primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Sean Parnell (incumbent) 80,903 75.86
Republican Russ Millette 11,296 10.59
Republican Brad Snowden 10,594 9.93
Republican Gerald L. "Tap" Heikes 3,855 3.61
Total votes 106,648 100

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Results

Republican primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dan Sullivan 74,758 70.70
Republican Kelly Wolf 30,985 29.30
Total votes 105,743 100

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Governor

Democratic candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Libertarian candidates

Declared
  • Carolyn Clift, treasurer of the Alaska Libertarian Party[15]

Results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Byron Mallott 42,327 66.89
Democratic Phil Stoddard 10,514 16.62
Libertarian Carolyn Clift 10,436 16.49
Total votes 63,277 100

Lieutenant governor

Democratic candidates

Declared

Libertarian candidates

Declared
  • Andrew C. Lee, gold miner[34]

Results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hollis French 40,271 62.08
Democratic Bob Williams 16,358 25.22
Libertarian Andrew C. Lee 8,238 12.70
Total votes 64,867 100

Others

Constitution Party

  • Running mate: Maria Rensel[36]

Independent

General election

Campaign

Parnell drew criticism during his re-election campaign over his support of billions in tax reductions for the petrochemical industry as well an exploding scandal featuring five years of alleged cover ups with regard to rampant sexual abuse, cronyism, corruption and whistleblower suppression, in the Alaska National Guard.[38][39][40]

In October 2014, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin endorsed Walker and Mallott. The endorsement was prompted by Parnell's oil and gas industry tax cuts, which dismantled her administration's "Alaska's Clear and Equitable Share" (ACES) plan. She had previously supported a referendum to repeal the tax cuts, which was narrowly defeated[41] in August 2014. Walker and Mallott made the repeal of the tax cuts a centerpiece of their campaign.[42]

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[43] Tossup November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] Lean I (flip) November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[45] Tossup November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[46] Tossup November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Byron
Mallott (D) 		Bill
Walker (I) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[47] November 1–2, 2014 1,052 ± 3% 45% — 46% 4%[48] 5%
47% — 48% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports[49] October 27–30, 2014 887 ± 4% 43% — 50% — 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[50] October 16–23, 2014 561 ± 9% 42% — 39% 0% 20%
Hellenthal & Associates[51] October 15–21, 2014 403 ± 4.88% 44% — 43% 5%[52] 9%
Rasmussen Reports[49] October 8–12, 2014 700 ± 4% 41% — 50% 2% 7%
Fox News[53] October 4–7, 2014 706 ± 3.5% 42% — 37% 8%[54] 13%
CNN/ORC[55] October 1–6, 2014 704 LV ± 3.5% 45% — 51% — 3%
875 RV ± 3.4% 46% — 49% 1% 5%
Hickman Analytics[56] September 26 – October 2, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 46% — 38% 7%[57] 10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[58] September 20 – October 1, 2014 593 ± 5% 40% — 45% 1% 14%
Rasmussen Reports[49] September 23–24, 2014 713 ± 4% 42% — 47% 5% 6%
Public Policy Polling[59] September 18–21, 2014 880 ± 3.3% 41% — 42% 5%[60] 13%
41% — 45% — 14%
Hays Research/AFL-CIO[61] September 13–14, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 30% — 37% 33%
Hays Research*[62] August 20–22, 2014 474 ± 4.5% 40% — 43% — 15%
Rasmussen Reports[49] August 20–21, 2014 750 ± 4% 47% 36% — 11% 6%
Public Policy Polling[63] July 31 – August 1, 2014 673 ± 3.8% 37% 22% 20% 5%[64] 16%
48% 37% — — 14%
41% — 40% — 19%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[65] July 5–24, 2014 450 ± 5.2% 55% 29% — 6% 8%
Public Policy Polling[66] May 8–11, 2014 582 ± 4.1% 37% 27% 17% 4%[67] 15%
Public Policy Polling[68] January 30 – February 1, 2014 850 ± 3.4% 41% 25% 16% 3%[67] 15%
  • * Internal poll for Bill Walker campaign
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Ethan
Berkowitz (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] July 25–28, 2013 890 ± 3.3% 51% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling[69] February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% 50% 41% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Hollis
French (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] July 25–28, 2013 890 ± 3.3% 54% 33% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Les
Gara (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] July 25–28, 2013 890 ± 3.3% 53% 33% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Scott
McAdams (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[69] February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% 52% 34% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Mike
Navarre (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[69] February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% 51% 29% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Joe
Paskvan (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[69] February 4–5, 2013 1,129 ± 2.9% 51% 25% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Bill
Wielechowski (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] July 25–28, 2013 890 ± 3.3% 52% 33% 15%

Results

2014 Alaska gubernatorial election[70]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Independent Bill Walker 134,658 48.10% +48.10%
Republican Sean Parnell (incumbent) 128,435 45.88% −13.18%
Libertarian Carolyn Clift 8,985 3.21% +2.16%
Constitution J. R. Myers 6,987 2.50% N/A
Write-in 893 0.32% -0.04%
Total votes 279,958 100.00% N/A
Independent gain from Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Independent

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Independent

See also

Elections in Alaska:

References

  1. ^ Not to be confused with former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources Dan Sullivan who ran as the Republican nominee in the U.S. Senate election which was held at the same time.
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  56. ^ Hickman Analytics
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Notes

  1. ^ The others were 1990 in Minnesota, 1982 in Nevada, 1978 in New Hampshire, and 1978 in Massachusetts
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