2007 Louisiana gubernatorial election

2007 Louisiana gubernatorial election

October 20, 2007
 
Candidate Bobby Jindal Walter Boasso
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 699,672 226,364
Percentage 53.91% 17.44%

 
Candidate John Georges Foster Campbell
Party Independent Democratic
Popular vote 186,800 161,425
Percentage 14.39% 12.44%

Parish results
Jindal:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Boasso:      40–50%
Georges:      30–40%
Campbell:      30–40%      40–50%

Governor before election

Kathleen Blanco
Democratic

Elected Governor

Bobby Jindal
Republican

The 2007 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on October 20. Democratic incumbent Kathleen Blanco did not run for re-election to a second term in office. Bobby Jindal won the election in the open jungle primary, capturing a majority of the vote and obviating the need for a run-off election.[1]

This was the first time since 1968 in which the winner of a Louisiana gubernatorial election was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Background

Louisiana state elections, with the exception of U.S. presidential elections (and congressional races from 2008 until 2010), followed a variation of the open primary system called the jungle primary. Candidates of any and all parties are listed on one ballot, and unless one candidate takes more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, a run-off election is then held between the top two candidates, who may in fact be members of the same party.

The filing deadline for candidates was September 6.

Hurricane Katrina and Blanco administration

Incumbent Kathleen Blanco originally planned to run for re-election, but she entered the year facing a significant erosion in her popular support, in large part to perceptions of inadequate performance in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. In November 2006, Blanco had an approval rating of 39 percent.

In December 2006, Blanco called a special session of the legislature which she intended to use to pass $2.1 billion in tax cuts, teacher raises, road projects, and other spending programs. Legislators allied with Blanco attempted to lift a constitutional spending cap, but Republicans defeated the proposed measures. The high-profile defeat further eroded Blanco's political reputation.[2]

Blanco also faced increasingly strong accusations of delays and incompetence in administering the Road Home Program, a state-run program Blanco set up following Katrina to distribute federal aid to victims. By January 2007, fewer than 250 of an estimated 100,000 applicants had received payments, and many payments apparently underestimated the costs of damages.[3]

By January 2007, early opinion polls showed Blanco trailing Bobby Jindal by over 20 percent. Blanco began her campaign by repeatedly criticizing of the administration of President George W. Bush, noting that Bush neglected to mention Gulf Coast reconstruction in his 2007 State of the Union Address and calling for a bipartisan congressional investigation into the conduct of the Bush administration following Katrina to determine whether partisan politics played a role in the slow response to the storm.[4] The latter proposal followed comments by former Federal Emergency Management Agency director Michael D. Brown, who claimed that the White House had planned to upstage Blanco by federalizing the National Guard in the days following Katrina. Blanco also repeated accusations that Mississippi had received preferential treatment because its governor, Haley Barbour, was a Republican.[5]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Withdrew

Declined

Republican Party

Withdrew

  • David Vitter, U.S. senator since 2005 and former U.S. representative

Independent

  • Belinda Alexandrenko, Lafayette resident and candidate for governor in 1995 and 1999 (Independent)
  • Sheldon Forest, Maurice resident (Independent)
  • Anthony Gentile, oil refinery supervisor from Mandeville (Independent)
  • John Georges, New Orleans businessman and owner of the Baton Rouge Morning Advocate (Independent)[a]
  • T. Lee Horne III, real estate salesman from Franklin (Libertarian)
  • Jim Nichols, Donaldsonville resident and candidate for governor in 1995 (Independent)

Campaign

In early 2007, a number of prominent Democratic figures declined to run. On March 20, following weeks of calls from her own party to step aside, Blanco announced that she would not run for re-election. Former U.S. senator John Breaux, who was a leading candidate to succeed her, faced charges that he would be ineligible to run as a resident and registered voter in Maryland since 2005; he announced on April 13 that he would not be a candidate. On April 17, lieutenant governor Mitch Landrieu also declined to run.[15]

Due to the lack of a high-profile Democratic candidate, party leaders approached Republican state senator Walter Boasso; Boasso formally switched to the Democratic Party on April 26.[6][7] Boasso, the president and CEO of a network of shipping container facilities and a member of the Port of New Orleans Board of Commissioners, had a reputation as a conservative, pro-business legislator. After Hurricane Katrina, Boasso achieved prominence as a leading advocate for consolidation and reform of the state's Levee Boards.

Foster Campbell, a cattle farmer and insurance businessman from Bossier Parish who served on the Public Service Commission, was a long time advocate for regulating and lowering utility rates. A centerpiece of his populist campaign is a proposal to tax foreign oil refined in Louisiana and use the proceeds to eliminate personal income tax.

By April, two Republicans had emerged as the leading fundraisers in the race. John Georges, a wealthy businessman, had $5.5 million cash on hand and Bobby Jindal, who had led the Republicans in 2003 and narrowly lost to Blanco, had received $5 million in campaign financing. Although Georges would later leave the Republican Party to run as an independent, the financial and polling strength of the two Republicans presented a tremendous challenge to Democratic Party recruitment.[14]

In late late August, an ad campaign by the Louisiana Democratic Party attacked Bobby Jindal on the basis of supposed inflammatory remarks made about Protestantism. The ad was solely aired in the largely Protestant central and northern districts of the state. The ad drew attention to essays Jindal had written over a decade previously discussing his Catholic faith and conversion. One such essay was titled "How Catholicism Is Different – The Catholic Church Isn't Just Another Denomination" was published in 1996 in the New Oxford Review.[16] Jindal said about the ad, "They're absolute lies. We're not talking about an exaggeration." A letter from Jindal's campaign said, "each claim made in the advertisement distorts Mr. Jindal's positions with false and grossly distorted statements."[17]

Polling

Source Date Kathleen
Blanco (D)
Walter
Boasso (D)
John
Breaux (D)
Foster
Campbell (D)
John
Georges (I)
Bobby
Jindal (R)
Undecided
/Other
Loyola Institute of Politics[18] October 2–8, 2007 9% 7% 9% 50% 25%
Southeastern Louisiana University[19] October 1–7, 2007 10% 6% 9% 46% 29%
Kitchens Group[20] September 4, 2007 11% 8% 7% 51% 23%
Verne Kennedy[21] August 23, 2007 11% 3% 8% 50% 7%[b]
Southern Media and Opinion Research[22] August 3–6, 2007 10% 3% 2% 60% 25%[c]
14% 4% 1% 63% 18%
Anzalone Liszt Research[23] July 8–12, 2007 21% 6% 1% 52% 20%
Anzalone Liszt Research[23] May 7–9, 2007 6% 9% 1% 62% 22%
John Breaux declines to run
Verne Kennedy[24] March 29–April 3, 2007 1% 23% 2% 10% 39% 25%[d]
Kathleen Blanco declines to run
Southern Media and Opinion Research[25] March 19, 2007 2% 26% 5% 56% 11%
24% 2% 4% 59% 11%
Southern Media and Opinion Research[25] January 18, 2007 31% 6% 58% 5%
Verne Kennedy October 24–30, 2006 20% 52% 28%[e]
Verne Kennedy[26] March 17–19, 2006 16% 1% 17% 1% 39% 26%[f]
Verne Kennedy[27] February 7–15, 2006 16% 1% 23% 36% 24%[g]
  1. ^ Georges initially ran as a Republican before leaving the Republican Party to run as an independent.
  2. ^ Includes 7% for Ray Nagin.
  3. ^ Includes 11% for Ray Nagin.
  4. ^ Includes 5% for Mitch Landrieu, 4% for John Kennedy, 1% for Richard Ieyoub, and 0% for Jim Bernhardt.
  5. ^ Includes 9% for Mitch Landrieu, 9% for David Vitter, and 3% for Charlie Melancon.
  6. ^ Includes 10% for David Vitter, 2% for Richard Ieyoub, and 1% for Jim Bernhardt.
  7. ^ Includes 7% for Mitch Landrieu, 5% for David Vitter, and 1% for Jim Bernhardt.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Likely R (flip) October 20, 2007

Results

Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2007
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bobby Jindal 699,672 53.91
Democratic Walter Boasso 226,364 17.44
Independent John Georges 186,800 14.39
Democratic Foster Campbell 161,425 12.44
Democratic Mary Volentine Smith 5,843 0.45
Independent Belinda Alexandrenko 4,782 0.37
Independent Anthony Gentile 3,369 0.36
Libertarian T. Lee Horne, III 2,639 0.2
Independent Sheldon Forest 2,319 0.18
Democratic M. V. "Vinny" Mendoza 2,076 0.16
Democratic Hardy Parkerson 1,661 0.13
Independent Arthur D. "Jim" Nichols 993 0.08
Majority 473,308 36.47%
Turnout 1,297,943 100%
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

See also

References

  1. ^ Louisiana Secretary of State Retrieved October 21, 2007 Archived September 19, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  2. ^ Barrow, Bill (December 17, 2006). "Session debacle fuels GOP's resolve; some lawmakers decry partisanship". New Orleans Times-Picayune.
  3. ^ Meitrodt, Jeffrey (January 28, 2007). "Understaffed and Overwhelmed: The firm administering Louisiana's Road Home program has consistently underestimated the magnitude of the task, records show". New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on May 3, 2007. Retrieved January 29, 2006.
  4. ^ Hammer, David (January 25, 2007). "Blanco criticizes president's speech: Failure to mention Gulf Coast irks many". New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved January 29, 2006.
  5. ^ Walsh, Bill (January 23, 2007). "Blanco calls for federal Katrina probe: Ex-director says White House tried to foil governor". New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved January 29, 2006.
  6. ^ a b Anderson, Ed (April 27, 2007). "Boasso makes switch to Democrats". New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on April 28, 2007. Retrieved April 27, 2007.
  7. ^ a b Anderson, Ed (April 21, 2007). "Demos hunt for big name candidate". New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved April 21, 2007.
  8. ^ Anderson, Ed (March 21, 2007). "Blanco bows out of race". New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on March 25, 2007. Retrieved March 21, 2007.
  9. ^ Dubos, Clancy (December 17, 2006). "Breaux ex Machina". Gambit Weekly.
  10. ^ Cillizza, Chris (February 23, 2007). "Breaux to the Rescue?". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 26, 2006.
  11. ^ Maginnis, John (February 21, 2007). "Desperate Dems look to Breaux again". The New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved February 26, 2007.
  12. ^ Deslatte, Melinda (February 22, 2007). "Breaux's residency questioned amid rumors of possible candidacy". Thibodaux Daily Comet. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved February 26, 2007.
  13. ^ Anderson, Ed (March 30, 2007). "Breaux moves forward with campaign". New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved March 30, 2007.
  14. ^ a b Anderson, Ed (April 13, 2007). "Breaux says he will not run for governor". New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on April 16, 2007. Retrieved April 13, 2007.
  15. ^ a b Simpson, Doug (April 17, 2007). "Mitch Landrieu declines La. governor bid". Associated Press. Retrieved April 17, 2007.
  16. ^ Bobby, Jindal (December 1996). "How Catholicism Is Different – The Catholic Church Isn't Just Another Denomination". New Oxford Review. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  17. ^ Moller, Jan (August 22, 2007). "Jindal wants religious insult claims dropped". New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved August 22, 2007.
  18. ^ Loyola Institute of Politics Archived 2008-01-26 at the Wayback Machine
  19. ^ Southeastern Louisiana University
  20. ^ Kitchens Group
  21. ^ Verne Kennedy Archived September 27, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
  22. ^ Southern Media and Opinion Research
  23. ^ a b Anzalone Liszt Research Archived September 29, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
  24. ^ Verne Kennedy
  25. ^ a b Southern Media and Opinion Research
  26. ^ Verne Kennedy
  27. ^ Verne Kennedy
  28. ^ "22007 Gubernatorial Contests and Virginia General Assembly Update". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.

Campaign sites

Democratic

Republican

Libertarian

Independent