Hypothetical Second American Civil War

A hypothetical Second American Civil War has been a topic of academic research, recent popular discussion, and is a recurring theme in speculative fiction.^[1] The term is used both to refer to a possible full-scale war following the first American Civil War (1861–1865) and to a historical term analyzing periods of heightened instability in the United States.^[2] While a new civil war is considered unlikely to happen,^[2][3][4][5] discussion of such a conflict has increased due to increased political polarization in the United States.^{[2][6][7][8][9][10][11]}

Most research considers the likelihood of a new full-scale civil war occurring in America to be low.^[2][3][4][5] The United States lacks many structural causes of civil wars such as a low GDP per capita, weak government capacity, rebel access to natural resources or cycles of violence under an authoritarian state.^[3] Scholars note that increasing polarization since the 2016 United States presidential election have led to increased speculation over a new civil war.^[2] Others like journalist and novelist Stephen Marche in The Next Civil War consulted experts and is more open to the possibility of a civil war. As of March 2026 there has not been a new civil war since 1865.

Other scholars have used terms like "Second American Civil War" to refer to periods of heightened instability in the United States, with the American Civil War as the key reference point. Specifically, "events related to the American Revolutionary War (1775–1783), Reconstruction (1865–1877), and Coal Wars (ca. 1890–ca. 1930) bear the hallmarks of civil war in the views of some experts."^[2]

The idea of a second American Civil War, has been used throughout speculative fiction. Some scholars have argued that second civil war novels often try to inspire far-right radicalization and violence.^[1] Examples of second American civil war speculative fiction, in any media, include:

Since the increase in political polarization in the US since 2016, popular discussions about a new civil war has increased.^[2] For instance, New York Times columnists Michelle Goldberg,^[6] Jamelle Bouie,^[7] and Ross Douthat^[8] have written columns discussing whether a new civil war is possible. Similarly, there have been multiple Washington Post columns on the topic.^[9][10][11] In a 2021 Zogby poll, a plurality of Americans believed that a new civil war was likely.^[3]

Since 2017, some media and public figures like Carl Bernstein,^[13] Rush Limbaugh,^[14] Fiona Hill,^[15] and Keith Boykin^[16] have used the term "Cold Civil War" akin to "Cold War" to describe America as on the verge of a civil conflict.

• American Civil War alternate histories
• Hypothetical Axis victory in World War II
• Second Cold War
• World War III