Polling for United States presidential elections

Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.[1][2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner.[3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012.[3] The month section in the tables represents the month in which the opinion poll was conducted. D represents the Democratic Party, and R represents the Republican Party. Third parties, such as the Dixiecrats and the Reform Party, were included in some polls.[4]

1936

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 1936 United States presidential election
1936[4]
Month Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % Alf Landon (R) %
July 49% 45%
August 49% 45%
49% 45%
49% 44%
September 49% 45%
50% 44%
October 51% 44%
51% 44%
56% 44%
Actual result 60.80% 36.54%
Difference between actual result and final poll +4.80% -7.46%

After predicting the winners of the previous five elections, The Literary Digest (based on cards mailed in by its readers) predicted that Alf Landon would win by a large margin. George Gallup predicted a Franklin D. Roosevelt win, based on statistical random sampling within 1.1 percent of the Literary Digest results.

The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts indicated the value of modern statistical methods; according to data collected in the Gallup poll, the Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won 69 percent of Literary Digest readers who did not participate in the poll) rather than selection bias as commonly believed. Roosevelt won 57 percent of Literary Digest readers who received the poll.[5] Roosevelt won in the largest landslide since the uncontested 1820 election, winning every state except Maine and Vermont, since his New Deal programs were popular with the American people (apart from the respondents to the Literary Digest poll). Although Landon said that the New Deal was costly and ineffective and Roosevelt was slowly molding the United States into a dictatorship, his attacks gained little traction.[6]

1940

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 1940 United States presidential election
1940[4]
Month Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % Wendell Willkie (R)%
July 48% 42%
44% 43%
August 45% 43%
46% 44%
September 49% 40%
October 50% 40%
51% 42%
52% 48%
Actual result 54.72% 44.77%
Difference between actual result and final poll +2.72% -3.23%

Throughout his campaign, Roosevelt promised to continue the New Deal and not bring the United States into any new wars if he was given another term. Wendell Willkie unsuccessfully attacked Roosevelt for seeking a third term and accused him of trying to turn the United States into a dictatorship by refusing to leave office. Roosevelt led in all polls, and was re-elected by a large margin.[7]

1944

1944[4]
Month Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % Thomas E. Dewey (R) %
March 55% 41%
53% 42%
April 48% 46%
May 48% 47%
50% 45%
June 51% 45%
51% 44%
July 46% 45%
49% 41%
August 47% 42%
47% 45%
September 47% 42%
50% 45%
48% 41%
47% 45%
October 48% 47%
50% 47%
November 51% 48%
Actual result 53.39% 45.89%
Difference between actual result and final poll +2.39% -2.11%

Roosevelt actively campaigned in this election against medical advice to counter Republican claims that he was near death. Roosevelt maintained a consistent (although sometimes narrow) lead in the polls, and won a solid victory due to American success in World War II and his continued popularity.[8]

1948

1948[4]
Month Harry S. Truman (D) % Thomas E. Dewey (R) % Henry A. Wallace (Progressive) % Strom Thurmond (Dixiecrat) %
December 1947/January 1948 46% 41% 7%
February/March 39% 47% 7%
April/May
June/July 38% 49% 6%
37% 48% 5%
August/September 37% 48% 4% 2%
36% 49% 5% 3%
39% 47% 3% 2%
39% 47% 3% 2%
40% 46% 4% 2%
October[9] 45% 50% 4% 2%
Actual result 49.55% 45.07% 2.37% 2.41%
Difference between actual result and final poll +4.55% -4.93% -1.63% +0.41%

While incumbent President Harry S. Truman's popularity was low at the end of 1946, it improved with his attack on the "Do-Nothing" Republican Congress of 1947–1948 and his association of Thomas E. Dewey with it. Truman also energized segments of the Democratic base by ending segregation in the military and recognizing Israel.[10] Gallup and other polling organizations stopped polling in mid-October, believing that Dewey would win the election, and failed to predict Truman's comeback or his subsequent victory.[2]

1952

1952[4]
Month Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) % Adlai Stevenson II (D) %
June 59% 31%
July 50% 43%
August
September 55% 40%
55% 41%
October 53% 41%
51% 38%
48% 39%
48% 39%
51% 49%
Actual result 55.14% 44.38%
Difference between actual result and final poll +4.14% -4.62%

Dissatisfaction with the Korean War, corruption and the threat of Communism (the K1c2 formula) allowed World War II hero Dwight D. Eisenhower to win the election in a landslide against Democratic opponent Adlai Stevenson II after consistently leading in the polls, mostly by large margins.[11]

1956

1956[4]
Month Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) % Adlai Stevenson II (D) %
December 1955/January 1956 61% 35%
February/March 63% 33%
April/May 61% 37%
62% 33%
62% 35%
June/July 62% 35%
61% 37%
August/September 52% 41%
52% 41%
52% 40%
October/November 51% 41%
59% 40%
Actual result 57.37% 41.97%
Difference between actual result and final poll -1.63% +1.97%

After consistently leading in the polls by large margins, incumbent President Eisenhower was easily re-elected due to economic prosperity at home and the end of the Korean War abroad.[12][13]

1960

1960[4]
Month John F. Kennedy (D) % Richard Nixon (R) %
December 1959/January 1960 43% 48%
February/March 48% 48%
50% 45%
April/May 51% 44%
48% 47%
47% 49%
June/July 50% 46%
August/September 44% 50%
47% 47%
48% 47%
46% 47%
October/November 49% 46%
49% 45%
51% 49%
Actual result 49.72% 49.55%
Difference between actual result and final poll -1.28% +0.55%

Polls throughout the campaign indicated a very close race. Vice President Richard Nixon initially led, but then had problems (a poor image in the first television debate and a knee injury which prevented him from campaigning) which gave Senator John F. Kennedy—the Democratic candidate, the lead in the polls for most of the campaign. In the end, Kennedy had an extremely close victory.[14]

1964

1964[4]
Month Lyndon B. Johnson (D) % Barry Goldwater (R) %
June 77% 18%
76% 20%
July 62% 26%
59% 31%
August 65% 29%
September 65% 29%
62% 32%
October 64% 29%
64% 36%
Actual result 61.05% 38.47%
Difference between actual result and final poll -2.95% +2.47%

President Johnson maintained a large lead in the polls and won a full term in a landslide due to popular sympathy after the assassination of President Kennedy, a good economy, lack of severe foreign problems, and an effective campaign to portray Goldwater as a dangerous, out-of-touch extremist.

1968

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 1968 United States presidential election
1968[4]
Month Richard Nixon (R) % Hubert Humphrey [a] (D) % George Wallace (American Independent) %
April 43% 34% 9%
May 39% 36% 14%
36% 42% 14%
June 37% 42% 14%
July 35% 40% 16%
40% 38% 16%
August 45% 29% 18%
September 43% 31% 19%
43% 28% 21%
44% 29% 20%
October 44% 36% 15%
November 43% 42% 15%
Actual result 43.42% 42.72% 13.53%
Difference between actual result and final poll +0.42% +0.72% -1.47%

Initially, President Johnson had been the early frontrunner for the Democratic Party's nomination. However, after he only narrowly won the New Hampshire primary, he eventually withdrew form the race, and Vice President Hubert Humphrey was proclaimed the Democratic nominee. The campaign was always close according to the polls, but after the tumultuous 1968 Democratic National Convention, former Vice President Richard Nixon—the Republican candidate, established and maintained a lead. Former Governor of Alabama George Wallace—the American Independent candidate, ran in opposition to civil rights and in support of segregation and received considerable support in the South. Humphrey began catching up to Nixon in the polls late in the campaign, but ran out of time as Nixon won a narrow victory.

1972

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 1972 United States presidential election
1972[4]
Month Richard Nixon (R) % George McGovern (D) %
May 53% 34%
June 53% 37%
July 56% 37%
August 57% 31%
64% 30%
September 61% 33%
October 60% 34%
59% 36%
November 62% 38%
Actual result 60.67% 37.52%
Difference between actual result and final poll -1.33% -0.48%

President Nixon was re-elected in a landslide, winning every state except Massachusetts after maintaining a large poll lead due to the economic recovery from the 1969–1970 recession and his portrayal of Senator George McGovern—the Democratic candidate, as a foreign-policy lightweight and social radical ("amnesty, abortion, and acid"). McGovern was also hurt by his change of vice-presidential candidates in mid-campaign, raising questions about his judgement.[15]

1976

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 1976 United States presidential election
1976[4]
Month Jimmy Carter (D) % Gerald Ford (R) %
March 47% 42%
48% 46%
48% 46%
April 48% 43%
May 52% 42%
53% 40%
June 55% 37%
53% 36%
July 62% 29%
August 54% 32%
51% 36%
September 51% 40%
October 47% 45%
47% 41%
48% 49%
Actual result 50.08% 48.01%
Difference between actual result and final poll +2.08% -0.99%

Former Governor of Georgia Jimmy Carter—the Democratic candidate, opened up a large lead over President Ford due to dissatisfaction with Watergate, Ford's pardon of former president Richard Nixon and the sluggish economy. Ford closed the gap near the end of the campaign with good debate performances, among other things. He was hurt by his comment that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and ran out of time to close the polling gap with Carter, who won by a narrow margin.

1980

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 1980 United States presidential election
1980[4]
Month Ronald Reagan (R) % Jimmy Carter (D) % John B. Anderson (I) %
December 1979/January 1980 33% 62%
February/March 31% 60%
33% 58%
34% 40% 21%
April/May 34% 41% 18%
32% 38% 21%
32% 40% 21%
June/July 32% 39% 21%
33% 35% 24%
37% 32% 22%
37% 34% 21%
August/September 45% 29% 14%
38% 39% 13%
39% 39% 14%
October/November 40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result 50.75% 41.01% 6.61%
Difference between actual result and final poll +3.75% -2.99% -1.39%

During primary season, President Carter held a steady lead over former Governor of California Ronald Reagan—the Republican front-runner, despite a primary challenge from Senator Ted Kennedy. Reagan and GE spokesman, passed Carter in the polls after the primaries, winning over voters dissatisfied with Carter's handling of the economy, the energy crisis, and the Iran hostage crisis. As the race neared its finish, Carter had apparently closed the gap with Reagan; some outlets gave him the lead. Reagan ran an upbeat campaign focused on fixing the economy and restoring America's image, diminished by Watergate and the war in Vietnam. Carter was more negative, attacking Reagan's record on civil rights and social issues. Reagan defeated Carter in a blowout on election night, the third win for Republicans in the past four presidential races.[16]

1984

1984[4]
Month Ronald Reagan (R) % Walter Mondale (D) %
December 1983/January 1984 48% 47%
53% 43%
February/March 52% 42%
50% 45%
52% 44%
April/May 54% 41%
52% 44%
50% 46%
53% 43%
June/July 53% 44%
55% 38%
51% 43%
53% 39%
53% 41%
August/September 52% 41%
56% 37%
58% 37%
55% 39%
October/November 58% 38%
56% 39%
59% 41%
Actual result 58.77% 40.56%
Difference between actual result and final poll -0.23% -0.44%

President Reagan had low approval ratings early in his first term,[17] but by 1983 the economy had improved enough to give him a boost for re-election. Former Vice President Walter Mondale— the Democratic candidate, who advocated a nuclear freeze, the Equal Rights Amendment and a balanced budget. Mondale benefited from a strong first debate (where the 73-year-old Reagan seemed slow), but Reagan was re-elected in a landslide, winning every state except Minnesota. Reagan again cast himself as the candidate of optimism, taking credit for an improved economy and an increase in national pride after the social upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s. Mondale's unpopular proposal to raise taxes to reduce the deficit and association with the Carter administration's "malaise" largely doomed his campaign from the start.[18]

1988

1988[4]
Month George H. W. Bush (R) % Michael Dukakis (D) %
March 52% 40%
April 45% 43%
May 38% 54%
June 38% 52%
41% 46%
July 41% 47%
37% 54%
August 42% 49%
September 49% 41%
47% 42%
October 50% 40%
November 56% 44%
Actual result 53.37% 45.65%
Difference between actual result and final poll -2.63% +1.65%

Although Governor of Massachusetts Michael Dukakis—the Democratic candidate, took a large lead in the initial polls, Vice President George H. W. Bush's campaign portrayed him as soft on crime and used the good economy, President Reagan's popularity and Bush's no new taxes pledge to close the gap and eventually take a large lead. Bush easily won the general election.

1992

1992[4]
Month Bill Clinton (D) % George H. W. Bush (R) % Ross Perot (I) %
March 25% 44% 24%
April 26% 41% 25%
May 29% 35% 30%
25% 35% 35%
June 26% 30% 38%
25% 31% 39%
24% 24% 37%
24% 32% 34%
27% 33% 32%
July 40% 48% Candidate withdrew from race
56% 34%
56% 36%
57% 32%
August 56% 37%
50% 39%
52% 42%
September 54% 39%
51% 42%
50% 40%
54% 38%
51% 35% 8%
October 47% 35% 10%
50% 34% 9%
51% 33% 10%
46% 34% 13%
47% 34% 14%
47% 29% 15%
44% 32% 17%
41% 30% 20%
42% 31% 19%
40% 38% 16%
41% 40% 14%
43% 36% 15%
November 49% 37% 14%
Actual result 43.01% 37.45% 18.91%
Difference between actual result and final poll -5.99% +0.45% +4.91%

The polls fluctuated during the spring and early summer, with President Bush and businessman Ross Perot—the independent candidate, trading the lead. Perot withdrew from the race in July, however, and Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton—the Democratic candidate, took a consistent lead in the polls by blaming Bush for the poor economy and promising that he would fix it ("It's the economy, stupid"). Although Perot returned to the race in September, he could not regain his previous support and Clinton won the general election by a comfortable margin.

1996

1996[4]
Month Bill Clinton (D) % Bob Dole (R) % Ross Perot (Reform) %
January 43% 39% 16%
February
March 47% 34% 17%
April 49% 35% 15%
May 47% 32% 19%
49% 35% 15%
June 49% 33% 17%
July 50% 33% 12%
50% 35% 10%
August 52% 30% 12%
48% 39% 7%
50% 38% 7%
51% 38% 7%
55% 34% 6%
September 53% 36% 5%
54% 36% 4%
55% 34% 5%
55% 34% 5%
55% 32% 6%
51% 34% 8%
50% 36% 6%
52% 36% 4%
53% 34% 6%
51% 38% 5%
49% 39% 6%
51% 37% 6%
57% 32% 5%
October 53% 36% 6%
51% 39% 5%
55% 35% 5%
55% 34% 6%
51% 38% 5%
56% 35% 4%
48% 39% 5%
51% 36% 8%
54% 35% 6%
52% 33% 8%
53% 34% 6%
54% 34% 7%
49% 37% 7%
51% 35% 10%
50% 37% 7%
November 52% 41% 7%
Actual result 49.24% 40.71% 8.40%
Difference between actual result and final poll -2.76% -0.29% +1.40%

President Clinton held a comfortable lead in the polls throughout the campaign due to the good economy, stable international situation, and tying former Senator Bob Dole—his Republican challenger to Newt Gingrich (the unpopular speaker of the House), easily won re-election.

2000

2000[4]
Month George W. Bush (R) % Al Gore (D) % Ralph Nader (Green) %
April 47% 41% 4%
May
June 46% 41% 6%
50% 38% 6%
July 45% 43% 5%
50% 39% 4%
August 54% 37% 4%
55% 39% 2%
46% 47% 3%
46% 45% 3%
September 44% 47% 3%
46% 45% 2%
42% 49% 3%
41% 49% 4%
42% 49% 2%
41% 49% 3%
44% 48% 2%
41% 51% 3%
42% 50% 2%
47% 44% 2%
46% 44% 2%
46% 44% 3%
45% 45% 4%
October 41% 49% 2%
40% 51% 2%
48% 41% 4%
50% 42% 4%
45% 45% 2%
45% 45% 3%
48% 43% 2%
47% 44% 3%
51% 40% 4%
44% 46% 4%
49% 42% 3%
52% 39% 4%
49% 42% 3%
47% 44% 3%
47% 43% 4%
November 47% 43% 4%
48% 46% 4%
Actual result 47.86% 48.38% 2.74%
Difference between actual result and final poll -0.14% +2.38% -1.26%

The election was close throughout the campaign; Vice President Al Gore used the good economy to his advantage, but was hurt by being perceived as robotic and pompous. During later months, polls flip-flopped between him and Republican candidate Governor of Texas George W. Bush, and Bush won a narrow victory in the electoral college, although polling was correct in predicting the winner of the popular vote.

2004

2004[4]
Month George W. Bush (R) % John Kerry (D) %
March 44% 50%
49% 45%
April 47% 43%
50% 44%
May 47% 47%
47% 45%
46% 47%
June 43% 49%
48% 47%
July 45% 50%
46% 47%
51% 45%
August 48% 46%
48% 46%
September 52% 45%
52% 44%
October 49% 49%
48% 49%
52% 44%
51% 46%
49% 49%
Actual result 50.73% 48.27%
Difference between actual result and final poll +1.73% -0.73%

The election was closely contested, as dissatisfaction with the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq War and a sluggish economy helped Senator John Kerry—his Democratic challenger. President Bush accused Kerry of flip-flopping, however,[19] and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth accused Kerry of being unpatriotic. A week before the election, al-Qaeda released a video warning Americans not to re-elect Bush. Bush's poll ratings in swing states then gave him a comfortable lead, and he was re-elected.[4]

2008

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election
2008[4]
Month Barack Obama (D) % John McCain (R) %
March 46% 44%
43% 47%
April 46% 43%
45% 45%
May 42% 48%
47% 43%
44% 47%
June 48% 41%
45% 45%
July 48% 42%
45% 44%
49% 40%
44% 44%
August 48% 42%
45% 45%
50% 42%
September 44% 49%
50% 44%
46% 46%
October 52% 41%
49% 43%
52% 42%
53% 40%
53% 42%
Actual result 52.93% 45.65%
Difference between actual result and final poll -0.07% +3.65%

The campaign was close during the spring and summer, with Senators Barack Obama—the Democratic candidate and John McCain—the Republican candidate, trading the lead. The Great Recession started in December 2007,[20] but Obama was initially hurt in the polls by former First Lady and Senator Hillary Clinton supporters.[21] The Republicans attacked him for being inexperienced,[22] and McCain got a temporary bump in the polls after choosing Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential running mate. The 2008 financial crisis allowed Obama to open a consistent, comfortable lead in the polls at the beginning of October, however, and he won the election by a comfortable margin.[4]

2012

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election
2012[23]
Month Barack Obama (D) % Mitt Romney (R) %
February 48% 44%
49% 43%
49% 44%
March 47% 45%
48% 44%
April 48% 43%
49% 43%
47% 44%
48% 44%
May 47% 44%
46% 46%
47% 45%
46% 44%
June 48% 45%
46% 45%
47% 44%
July 46% 45%
47% 45%
46% 45%
47% 45%
August 48% 44%
47% 45%
47% 46%
September 47% 47%
49% 45%
48% 45%
49% 45%
October 49% 46%
47% 48%
47% 47%
47% 48%
November 49% 48%
Actual result 51.06% 47.20%
Difference between actual result and final poll +2.06% -0.80%

President Obama and his campaign aired early negative ads criticizing former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney—his Republican challenger. While Romney regained some support, several gaffes in addition to Obama's embracement of popularly supported intitiatives such as same-sex marriage legalization maintained Obama's lead throughout most of the campaign. Polling correctly predicted Obama's victory, although he won by a larger margin than predicted for most of the race.

2016

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election
2016[24]
Month Donald Trump (R) % Hillary Clinton (D) % Gary Johnson (L) % Jill Stein (G) %
June 36% 41% 7% 4%
37% 42% 8% 5%
July 37% 41% 7% 4%
38% 41% 9% 4%
40% 40% 7% 3%
August 38% 42% 7% 3%
36% 44% 9% 4%
37% 44% 9% 3%
37% 42% 9% 3%
38% 42% 8% 3%
September 39% 41% 8% 3%
40% 42% 9% 3%
40% 41% 8% 3%
42% 43% 7% 2%
October 41% 44% 7% 3%
39% 44% 7% 2%
39% 46% 7% 2%
40% 45% 6% 2%
November 43% 45% 5% 2%
42% 46% 5% 2%
Actual result 46.09% 48.18% 3.28% 1.13%
Difference between actual result and final poll +4.09% +2.18% -1.72% -0.87%

Businessman Donald Trump—the Republican candidate and former First Lady, former Senator, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton—the Democratic candidate, were seen unfavorably by many pollsters and pundits, and it was predicted that Trump would lose by a large margin to Democratic opponent Clinton. While pollsters correctly predicted that Clinton would win the popular vote, both candidates outperformed polls, partially due to the overestimation of third-party results.[25]

2020

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 United States presidential election
2020[26]
Month Joe Biden (D) % Donald Trump (R) %
February 50% 45%
50% 46%
March 50% 44%
51% 44%
50% 44%
April 47% 42%
48% 42%
May 47% 43%
49% 44%
48% 42%
June 49% 42%
50% 42%
51% 41%
50% 40%
July 50% 41%
49% 40%
50% 41%
51% 42%
August 49% 42%
50% 42%
September 49% 43%
50% 43%
49% 43%
October 51% 42%
52% 42%
51% 43%
November 51% 44%
Actual result 51.31% 46.86%
Difference between actual result and final poll +0.31% +2.86%

Former Vice President Joe Biden led in most national polls throughout the race, but President Trump believed that polls were underestimating his results. Polls correctly predicted that Biden would win the popular vote, and correctly predicted his margin, but Trump's popular vote estimate was significantly underestimated due to his gains among low-propensity respondents.[27]

2024

Main article: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
2024[28]
Month Donald Trump (R) % Kamala Harris [b] (D) %
February 46% 44%
45% 44%
47% 45%
March 48% 45%
47% 46%
47% 45%
April 47% 46%
46% 46%
45% 45%
45% 44%
47% 45%
May 46% 45%
47% 46%
48% 46%
June 46% 46%
45% 45%
46% 45%
July 47% 44%
47% 45%
48% 45%
48% 46%
August 47% 47%
47% 48%
September 46% 48%
47% 48%
47% 49%
October 48% 49%
49% 49%
49% 48%
November 49% 49%
Actual result 49.80% 48.32%
Difference between actual result and final poll +0.80% -0.68%

Former President Donald Trump was leading President Biden in the polls since the beginning of the year, mainly due to high inflation and concerns over Biden's age and health. Polls narrowed following Biden's withdrawal from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris's replacement as the Democratic nominee, with the two candidates roughly tying in popular vote polls up until the election. While Trump won a dominant victory in the electoral college, the popular vote polls were mostly accurate.[29]

Notes

  1. ^ Lyndon B. Johnson before April
  2. ^ Joe Biden until July

References

  1. ^ Hillygus, D. S. (December 1, 2011). "The Evolution of Election Polling in the United States". Public Opinion Quarterly. 75 (5): 962–981. doi:10.1093/poq/nfr054. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
  2. ^ a b "Poll" in The Columbia Encyclopedia, 6th ed.' New York. Columbia University Press. 2012. OCLC 746941797
  3. ^ a b Shafer, Jack. "Opinion | Journalists Are Hooked on Polls and They'll Stay That Way". POLITICO. Retrieved November 19, 2021.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v "Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008". gallup.com. Gallup, Inc. Archived from the original on June 30, 2017. Retrieved August 30, 2012.
  5. ^ Squire, Peverill (Spring 1988). "Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed". The Public Opinion Quarterly. 52 (1): 125–133. doi:10.1086/269085.
  6. ^ Derrick Dickey. "1936 Roosevelt v. Landon". Kennesaw.edu. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  7. ^ Derrick Dickey. "1940 Roosevelt v. Willkie". Kennesaw.edu. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  8. ^ Derrick Dickey. "1944 Roosevelt v. Dewey". Kennesaw.edu. Archived from the original on October 28, 2012. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  9. ^ Harry J. Enten (October 18, 2016). "Clinton-Trump Probably Won't Be The Next 'Dewey Defeats Truman'". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
  10. ^ P.O. Box 400406 (August 22, 2012). "American President: Harry S. Truman: Campaigns and Elections". Millercenter.org. Archived from the original on September 5, 2012. Retrieved September 8, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  11. ^ "Election of 1952". Historycentral.com. December 20, 2008. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  12. ^ "BBC ON THIS DAY | 7 | 1956: Eisenhower re-elected with record vote". BBC News. November 7, 1956. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
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