George H. W. Bush 1988 presidential campaign

The 1988 presidential campaign of George H. W. Bush, the 43rd vice president of the United States under President Ronald Reagan, began when he announced he was running for the Republican Party's nomination in the 1988 U.S. presidential election on October 13, 1987.^[3] Bush won the 1988 election against the Democratic Party’s nominee Michael Dukakis on November 8, 1988. He was subsequently inaugurated as president on January 20, 1989.^[4][5]

Bush's victory completed one of the most dramatic reversals of fortune in the 1988 primary season. After finishing third in Iowa and appearing politically imperiled, Bush rebounded in New Hampshire, swept Super Tuesday, secured the Republican nomination, and then used the party convention and an aggressive general-election strategy to erase Michael Dukakis's large post-Democratic-convention polling lead.^[6][7]

As the incumbent vice president under Ronald Reagan, Bush entered the 1988 race as the heir apparent to a highly successful Republican administration, but also as a candidate with significant liabilities. He was closely identified with Reagan's presidency and its achievements, yet that same closeness reinforced doubts about whether he was "his own man."^[8] Journalists and strategists frequently discussed Bush's so-called "wimp factor," a shorthand for perceptions that he lacked the forcefulness or independence associated with presidential leadership.^[9]

Bush's 1988 effort did not begin from scratch. According to later reporting in The Washington Post, the roots of the campaign stretched back to the mid-1980s, when Bush and his advisers, including Lee Atwater and Roger Ailes, began assembling what amounted to a shadow campaign organization. A political action committee called the Fund for America's Future was created in 1985 to support Bush's political standing, and he began meeting privately with Ailes on a regular basis.^[7] The campaign's archival record at the George H. W. Bush Presidential Library and Museum likewise dates the formal campaign files from January 1987 through December 1988.^[10]

Bush's pre-campaign political challenge was also ideological. Although he had spent eight years as Reagan's loyal vice president, conservatives still distrusted him because of his Eastern establishment background and his 1980 description of Reagan's economic plan as "voodoo economics".^[8] At the same time, the aftermath of the Iran–Contra affair made Bush's loyalty to the Reagan administration politically complicated, because it tied his standing to Reagan's fluctuating fortunes and reinforced the old vice-presidential "dependency smell" that critics believed clung to him.^[8]

Bush's three main opponents in the 1988 Republican Party presidential primaries were Senator Bob Dole (R-KS); Pat Robertson, an evangelist; and Representative Jack Kemp (R-NY). Bush was long held back by the widespread perception of him as a "wimp" who had only ever done the bidding of others.^[3][11] His efforts to fight this perception included recruiting Roger Ailes to emphasize Bush's status as a World War II veteran, which Ailes did by producing a biographical ad.^[12]

Bush's primary strategy depended on organization, money, and an early-state focus. By the beginning of 1988, he and his advisers had built what The Washington Post later described as an "'army of ants,' not crusade of ideas," a disciplined campaign machine meant to win by experience, calculation, and organization rather than inspiration.^[7] Bush's aides had also tried to use his vice-presidential office and his foreign-policy résumé to bolster his stature, but internal concern remained acute about his inability to project leadership and independence on television.^[9][7]

In that year's Iowa caucus, held on February 8, 1988, Bush finished in third, behind winner Dole and runner-up Robertson. Bush's support then began to deteriorate, partly because former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. had recently endorsed Dole. The Bush campaign then decided to produce an attack ad against Dole. Ailes got the idea to make an ad portraying Dole as a "straddler" on the issue of raising taxes, based on one of Dole's own ads describing Bush with the same word.^[3][13]

Bush's poor Iowa showing was a severe shock to the campaign. According to later reporting, even Bush's advisers had considered the possibility of abandoning the state before the caucuses, and Bush himself emerged from the defeat disoriented and "shellshocked".^[7] Time later identified Iowa as the campaign's first key turning point, recounting that Bush recognized the need to change both tone and presentation after the loss.^[14]

Bush's campaign focused on building a "Firewall" in the Southern United States, a strategy that proved successful after he won multiple primaries there on March 8. Bush was also successful in winning the New Hampshire primary against Dole on February 16, partly with help from the state's then-governor John H. Sununu, who successfully convinced many political figures in the state to support Bush by offering them low-digit license plates.^[15] Subsequently, Bush became the probable Republican nominee, completing a transformation of his status from loser to front-runner in 29 days.^[13]

The New Hampshire rebound relied on both sharper messaging and stronger organization. Time later highlighted the impact of the "Senator Straddle" ad against Dole and the role of speechwriter Peggy Noonan in helping Bush present a more personal, less stiff image in the aftermath of Iowa.^[14] The Washington Post later reported that Atwater had instructed New Hampshire organizers to build a "fortress" capable of surviving an Iowa defeat, and that Bush's comeback there was central to saving the campaign.^[7]

After Bush's convincing performance on Super Tuesday on March 8, in which he won all 16 primaries, Dole dropped out of the race, making Bush the presumptive Republican nominee.^[11][16] After it became clear that Bush would be the Republican nominee, President Ronald Reagan endorsed him, saying in May 1988 that "I'm going to work as hard as I can to make Vice President George Bush the next president of the United States". Reagan did not campaign strongly for Bush during the rest of the election, however.^[17]

The 1988 Republican National Convention was held in New Orleans, Louisiana. On the convention's second day, Bush announced that he had chosen Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) as his running mate.^[20] By the end of the convention, Bush had increased his poll numbers to comfortably surpass those of Dukakis, and he went on to maintain that lead during the rest of his campaign.^[21]

Quayle's selection immediately produced controversy, particularly over his military service and his relative youth and inexperience.^[22] The New Yorker later wrote that the choice raised questions about Bush's judgment and about the campaign's decision-making process, noting that Quayle had been championed by Bush pollster Robert Teeter and media adviser Roger Ailes.^[23] Nevertheless, the convention as a whole helped Bush. Gallup later found that between the week before and the week after the convention, Bush's favorable rating rose nine points and his standing in the trial heat against Dukakis improved from 42% to 48%, while Dukakis fell from 49% to 44%.^[6]

Bush entered the general election trailing Dukakis badly in national polls after the Democratic convention, but the Republican convention and Bush's acceptance speech changed the trajectory of the race.^[6] In that speech, Bush presented himself as both the heir to Reagan and a candidate with a softer public tone, invoking "a thousand points of light" and calling for "a kinder, gentler nation" even as he sharpened partisan contrasts with Dukakis on taxes, the Pledge of Allegiance, crime, and national values.^[24][23]

The Bush campaign's fall strategy was heavily shaped by focus-group research. In May 1988, Bush advisers tested likely Dukakis vulnerabilities, especially crime and the Pledge of Allegiance, in New Jersey focus groups and concluded that these issues powerfully moved swing voters. According to later accounts in The Washington Post, the encouraging results led the campaign to make those themes central to its post-primary and post-convention attack strategy, while Atwater, Ailes, Teeter, and other top advisers worked to keep the election agenda on those grounds rather than on issues favoring Dukakis.^[25][7]

The Bush campaign also benefited from its discipline and long preparation. In a post-election examination, The Washington Post described the Bush organization as a vast, mostly hidden machine built years in advance and managed through a small senior circle that included Baker, Atwater, Ailes, Teeter, and others. The article argued that Bush's 1988 victory was "earned not by a crusade of ideas" but through experience, calculation, and a willingness to define Dukakis early and relentlessly.^[7]

Bush did not promise any major changes to the policies of then-sitting President Reagan.^[26] That year, the Republican Party platform stated, "Our platform reflects George Bush's belief that military strength, diplomatic resoluteness, and firm leadership are necessary to keep our country and our allies free."^[27] During his acceptance speech, Bush uttered the phrase "Read my lips: no new taxes", which was written by Peggy Noonan and served as the speech's centerpiece. During Bush's presidency, this remark came back to haunt him because he went on to raise taxes during his presidency. The contradiction between Bush's words and subsequent actions as president formed the basis of an attack ad Bill Clinton ran against Bush in the former's successful 1992 presidential campaign.^[28]

The acceptance speech's most memorable line, "Read my lips: no new taxes," became one of the defining slogans of the general election. Later reporting in Time stated that Roger Ailes was one of the architects of the phrase and that the line was designed to give Bush a sharper, tougher edge on taxes at a moment when the campaign believed it needed a bold, unequivocal contrast with Dukakis.^[29]

Bush's campaign manager in 1988 was Lee Atwater, a political consultant who Bush subsequently named chair of the Republican National Committee after becoming the Republican nominee.^[30] Shortly before his death, Atwater apologized for saying that he "would strip the bark off the little bastard [Dukakis]" and "make Willie Horton his running mate," telling Life that "I am sorry for both statements: the first for its naked cruelty, the second because it makes me sound racist, which I am not."^[30] Bush's media advisor was Roger Ailes who produced the "Revolving Door" attack ad for Bush's campaign. The ad was criticized by Democrats for being race-baiting.^[31][32] In May 1988, Ailes and Atwater assembled two focus groups, each of which consisted of 15 likely Dukakis voters, and had the focus group leader read versions of Dukakis' past statements and positions. They found that saying this material reduced support for Dukakis in both groups. That fall, Bush focused extensively on the issues raised in these focus groups.^[33]

The campaign's inner circle and operational culture became a subject of later commentary. In its detailed post-election analysis, The Washington Post wrote that the Bush effort functioned as an "army of ants," a phrase used by campaign operative Mary Matalin to describe the methodical, highly organized structure that the senior staff believed was necessary to compensate for Bush's limitations as a naturally cautious and untheatrical candidate.^[7]

The Bush campaign, and independent groups supporting it, made effective use of attack ads to reduce support for Dukakis. The most famous of these ads was the "Willie Horton" ad attacking Dukakis over Massachusetts' furlough program. Atwater persuaded Bush to go along with the ad by noting that Bush was behind Dukakis by 17 points at the time, warning him that "You can get so far behind that even a good campaign won't win it for you."^[34]

The Bush–Quayle campaign's own "Revolving Door" commercial, made by Dennis Frankenberry and Roger Ailes and first aired on October 3, 1988, became one of the signature ads of the election.^[35] The independent "Willie Horton" spot, by contrast, was produced by Larry McCarthy for the National Security Political Action Committee rather than by the Bush campaign itself, though both ads reinforced the same attack line on crime and furloughs.^[36] The Living Room Candidate later noted that both commercials received extensive news coverage and that Dukakis did not answer the Horton attacks effectively until late in the campaign.^[35][36]

Bush did better in every southern state than Reagan had done in 1980.^[37]

Bush won a decisive national victory, carrying 40 states, receiving 48,886,097 votes (53.4%), and winning 426 electoral votes to Dukakis's 111, with one faithless elector from West Virginia voting for Lloyd Bentsen for president and Dukakis for vice president.^[4][5] His victory made him the first sitting vice president to be elected president since Martin Van Buren in 1836.^[38]

• 1988 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 1988 Republican Party vice presidential candidate selection
• 1988 Republican National Convention
• 1988 United States presidential election
• Presidential transition of George H. W. Bush
• Inauguration of George H. W. Bush
• Michael Dukakis 1988 presidential campaign
• George H. W. Bush 1992 presidential campaign

• Black, Earl; Black, Merle (2002). The Rise of Southern Republicans. Harvard University Press. ISBN 067400728X.

• George H. W. Bush announcement speech
• George H. W. Bush acceptance speech