Climate change in Virginia

Climate change in Virginia encompasses the effects of climate change, attributed to man-made increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the U.S. state of Virginia.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency reports:

"Virginia's climate is changing. Most of the state has warmed about one degree (F) in the last century, and the sea is rising one to two inches every decade. Higher water levels are eroding beaches, submerging low lands, exacerbating coastal flooding, and increasing the salinity of estuaries and aquifers. The southeastern United States has warmed less than most of the nation. But in the coming decades, the region's changing climate is likely to reduce crop yields, harm livestock, increase the number of unpleasantly hot days, and increase the risk of heat stroke and other heat-related illnesses".^[1]

Several local communities have enacted plans to limit the effects of climate change. In the wake of Hurricane Matthew and the flooding of over 2,000 homes, the city of Virginia Beach took an unusual and aggressive stance on some new floodplain developments. The city rejected plans for building in the floodplain by large developers. The subsequent lawsuit and legal judgment may result in far-reaching consequences for future local climate change adaptation. After the developers took the city to court over the rejected plans, the courts ruled the city's actions acceptable. This makes future land buybacks and risky development project rejection more palatable from a legal perspective in the future.^[2]

After Hurricane Matthew, Norfolk purchased land from 18 landowners whose homes were destroyed in the hurricane. Some community-members and developers in Norfolk expressed similar concerns about tax base and growth, as were discussed in Virginia Beach and elsewhere regarding retreat.^[2]

Documentation shows that tropical storms and hurricanes have intensified over the past 20 years. Despite there being more potential energy in warming oceans, scientists are not sure if the recent intensification will become a long-term trend. What is a given, though, is that hurricane wind speeds and rainfall will likely increase as the climate warms.^[1]

In June 2019, it was reported that climate change was already having an effect on local fishing industries, causing declines in some fish populations that had long been found in Virginia waters.^[3]

It is predicted that seventy years from now, temperatures are more likely to be above 95°F approximately 20 40 days per year in the southeastern half of the state. This is in comparison to the 10 days a year in 2016.^[1] This will result in more air conditioning usage, which will strain the electrical grid.^[4]

On average, the sea level along Virginia's coast is increasing, mainly due to the land sinking. Such sinking is exacerbated by the withdrawal of groundwater faster than it can be replaced.^[5] If the average temperature of the oceans and atmosphere continue to rise, it is predicted that Virginia's sea level will rise sixteen inches to four feet in the next century.^[1]

"As sea level rises, the lowest dry lands are submerged and become either tidal wetland or open water. The freshwater wetlands in the upper tidal portions of the Potomac, Rappahannock, York, and James rivers build their own land by capturing floating sediments, and they are likely to keep pace with the rising sea during the next century. But most salt marshes along the brackish portions of those rivers and along Chesapeake Bay are unlikely to keep pace if sea level rises three feet. The wetlands of Back Bay and the North Landing River are even more vulnerable and may be lost if the sea rises two feet. Beaches also erode as sea level rises. A higher ocean level makes it more likely that storm waters will wash over a barrier island or open new inlets. The United States Geological Survey estimates that Virginia's barrier islands could be broken up by new inlets or lost to erosion if sea level rises two feet by the year 2100. Beach erosion will threaten the oceanfront portion of Virginia Beach, unless people take measures to offset the erosion. Rising sea level also threatens bay beaches and tidal flats".^[1]

When the sea level rises, salt water can mix with freshwater further inland and upstream, affecting bodies of water like bays, rivers, and wetlands. This can result in groundwater becoming contaminated, along with soils becoming to salty for farming and/or forests.^[5] An example is how the York River has freshwater swamps along its tidal tributaries that contain standing dead trees from saltwater.

"Whether or not storms become more intense, coastal homes and infrastructure will flood more often as sea level rises, because storm surges will become higher as well. Many roads, railways, and ports are vulnerable to the impacts of storms and sea level rise, and most of the heavily populated Hampton Roads area could be flooded by a major hurricane. Poquoson and a few other communities along Chesapeake Bay are so low that water in roadside ditches rises and falls with the tides. As sea level rises and storms possibly become more severe, homes and infrastructure in these communities will flood more frequently. As a result, rising sea level is likely to increase flood insurance rates, while more frequent storms could increase the deductible for wind damage in homeowner insurance policies".^[1]

The increased amount of rainfall could further exacerbate flooding across the state. The average amount of precipitation during heavy storms increased by 27 percent between 1958 and 2012 in the southeast portion of Virginia. This trend of increasingly severe rainstorms is predicted to continue if climate change remains untouched.^[1]

"The loss of tidal marshes could harm fish and birds that depend on a marsh for food or shelter. Marine organisms and small insects that feed in marshes are key sources of food for crabs, rockfish, and other commercially important fisheries. Striped bass, bluefish, sea trout, and summer flounder move into and out of marshes for food and shelter. Many birds inhabit the most vulnerable marshes along Chesapeake Bay, including great blue heron, bald eagle, American black duck, and snowy egret. Marshes along the Atlantic coast provide forage for shorebirds, such as sandpipers and plovers, and several species of ducks and geese spend the winter in these marshes".^[1]

"The loss of bay beaches would remove key habitat for diamondback terrapin, which nests on these beaches. Other species that depend on bay beaches include horseshoe crabs, tiger beetles, sand fleas, snails, and several crab species. The loss of those species would remove important sources of food for birds. Changing temperatures could also disrupt ecosystems. If water temperatures exceed 86°F during summer, eelgrass could be lost, which would remove habitat for summer flounder, blue crab, and bay scallop. Brants, canvasback ducks, and American black ducks would also lose a food source".^[1]

The changes in the climate will result in both harmful and beneficial effects on farming. The higher temperatures are predicted to cause a reduction in livestock productivity. This is due to how heat stress causes disruptions to animals' metabolism.

It is theorized that, over the next few decades, hotter summers will decrease corn yields. But, at the same time, the higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2 could cause an increase in crop yields, with the fertilizing effect offsetting the harmful effects of heat on crops like cotton, wheat and peanuts (assuming that there is adequate water levels). As temperatures rise, the need for irrigation will increase, causing a greater strain on available resources. Where there is already scarce water, the increasingly severe droughts will likely cause a reduction in crop yields.^[1]

• Plug-in electric vehicles in Virginia

• Nash, Steve (2017). Virginia climate fever: How global warming will transform our cities, shorelines, and forests (First paperback ed.). Charlottesville, Virginia: University of Virginia Press. ISBN 978-0-8139-3995-7. OCLC 964303471.
• Carter, L.; A. Terando; K. Dow; K. Hiers; K.E. Kunkel; A. Lascurain; D. Marcy; M. Osland; P. Schramm (2018). "Southeast". In Reidmiller, D.R.; C.W. Avery; D.R. Easterling; K.E. Kunkel; K.L.M. Lewis; T.K. Maycock; B.C. Stewart (eds.). Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II (Report). Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Global Change Research Program. pp. 872–940. doi:10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH19.—this chapter of the National Climate Assessment covers Southeast states (Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana).