Climate change in Guatemala

Climate change in Guatemala is a serious issue as Guatemala is considered one of 10 nations most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.[1] In 2010, Guatemala "ranked second in the world on the Global Climate Risk Index, which indicates the level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme events."[2] Both commercial agricultural production and subsistence farming have declined, and thus subsistence farmers find it more difficult to find work as day laborers when their own harvests fail.[3] About 300,000 subsistence farmers reported crop loss due to drought in 2018.[4] About half of Guatemala's workforce is in the agricultural sector.[5] Poor crop yields due to climate change have been identified as a factor in migration to the United States.[6][7] As of 2026, the country has continued to be damaged by frosts, humidity, heat-drawn invasive insects, and consequently, the lack of communication regarding the well-being of the population.[8][9][10]

Greenhouse gas emissions

"Guatemala emitted 40 million metric tons (MtCO2e) of greenhouse gases in 2011, with the land-use change and forestry sector contributing 40 percent to overall emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions grew by 38 percent from 1990 - 2011 with significant contribution from the land-use change and forestry, energy and agriculture sectors."[11]

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes

Köppen climate classification map for Guatemala for 1980–2016
2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely[12][13][14]

A report by the Guatemalan System of Climate Change Sciences in 2019 indicated that rainy season is starting later as a result of climate change, putting subsistence farmers and indigenous people in poor communities at risk of food shortages resulting from poor harvests.[15]

Ecosystems

Populations of Guatemala's edible giant winged leaf-cutter ant are declining.[16][17] "Guatemala's zompopos, yellow ants, of May are now the zompopos of June," according to Dr. Edwin Castellanos, of the Universidad del Valle de Guatemala.[18]

Impacts on people

Economic impacts

Agriculture

Guatemalan farmers have experienced extreme weather events such as hurricanes, as well as erratic weather patterns with spikes and drops in temperature, torrential rains, drought, and unexpected frost.[3][7][19][20] One crop affected has been potatoes, which suffer from fungus.[6]

Guatemala's western highlands are particularly susceptible to climate change, impacting the region's predominantly indigenous population of subsistence farmers. The main crops, potatoes and maize, have been over increasing pressure as hard frosts in the region have become more frequent since 2013. Hard frosts can kill a whole season's worth of crops at once. At lower elevations, new pests are becoming more prevalent and there has been decreased rainfall.[5]

The problem of food security and famine has increased, especially in the "corredor seco" (an area extending from the departments of Izabal and Baja Verapaz in the north to Santa Rosa and Jutiapa in the south).[18]

Other crops affected include coffee[21] and cardamom.[22]

In high-altitude areas such as Los Altos de Chiantla in the department of Huehuetenango, located above 3,000 meters, farmers have reported an increase in dangerous frosts (locally known as hieleras), which can damage potato crops. However, these agricultural outcomes have differed in recent years. Some farmers farmers during the 2020s reported stable or "above-average" harvests, which shows how different the impacts are in Guatemala's mountainous terrain.[8]

Disease

Dengue fever has been one of the most widely reported air-borne diseases in Guatemala between 2019 and today. The disease is transmitted by female Aedes mosquitos, which thrive in warm, humid climates. The rising temperatures caused by climate change may expand these habitats into areas otherwise known for their severe lack of mosquitos. Even a slight temperature increase of 1-2 °C may increase the chance of these insects appearing in higher areas. Some studies note that reported dengue incidences has historically been far lower in territories where many Maya communities live due to the cooler temperatures rather than their demographic background.[9]

Impacts on migration

In 2018, 50% of the 94,000 Guatemalans deported from the United States and Mexico were from the country's western highlands severely affected by climate change.[5]

In 2019, Palm Beach County, Florida saw an increase in Guatemalan immigrants from the "Dry corridor", seeking to escape hunger caused by periods of drought followed by torrential rains that had impacted their crops.[7]

A study conducted in 2021 by numerous researchers examined migration patterns in the Cuchumátan highlands of Huehuetenango through interviews with the local residents. Respondents were asked general questions about their livelihoods rather than directly about climate change. Many participants answered that they migrated due to economic conditions, limited opportunities, and other social factors as their main motivations. The findings would show that the reason for migration is more-so due to personal reasons, with climate not being as potent, but still a reasonable case.[8]

Economy

As of 2023, Guatemala's economy has grown at a more constant pace than several other Central American countries that surround it. With agriculture, it has been one of Guatemala's front-liners for their economic growth, but with crops, the climate is a major concern to keep exports and imports from delay. Irregular rainfall disrupts the yield amount and could damage nearby plants. These disruptions could also happen to increase the cycle for the plant growth, making for an above-average cost and making it difficult for both the farmers and most of the country to make a living.[23]

Mitigation and adaptation

Adaptation

US humanitarian aid for projects related climate and agriculture has focused on helping farmers adapt so that they can remain on their land.[4] USAID support for Guatemala has included development of "early-warning systems for floods and fires, as well as promoting soil and watershed conservation, rain water harvesting, and other adaptive practices."[1] According to the GAO, the mandate for studies to determine the impact of these programs on migration has been rescinded. A third round of cuts to US aid has been proposed for FY2020.[4]

US based NGOs which have been active in climate-related projects in the forestry and agricultural sectors experienced funding cuts under the first Trump Administration.[6][24] For example, Asociación de Cooperación para el Desarrollo Rural de Occidente (C.D.R.O.) was a Guatemalan program originally funded by the United States' government. C.D.R.O. focused on agroforestry and weather monitoring systems to help farmers mitigate the effects of climate change. The organization provided residents with resources to plant new, more adaptable crops to alongside their typical maize to protect the corn from variable temperatures, frost, etc. C.D.R.O. also set up a weather monitoring system to help predict extreme weather events, and would send residents text messages to warn them about periods of frost, extreme heat, humidity, or drought. Funding for the program was cut by the Trump administration in 2017.[5]

As of 2022, remittances from Guatemalans living abroad has exceeded US$19 billion annually. These funds have supported Guatemalans with housing, businesses, and agriculture. In some rural communities, this remittance income has made it so the reliance on home-grown food is reduced, which may lessen dependance on rain-fed farming when the climate is the strongest.[25]

Indigenous people, particularly that of the Mayan descent, represent a very large portion of the Guatemalan population, about 44%, and are also severely affected by climate in the highlands and the corridor. Although Guatemala has sanctioned International Labor Organization Convention 169, which guarantees consultation rights for people such as the Mayans, some observers note that this seems to be inconsistent. Guatemala's policy also references community input and cultural knowledge; however, that has not seemed to be the case with multiple projects ignoring this written right entirely.[25]

As projects, such as hydroelectric and agro-industrial plants, are constantly being built around the country, they have come across Indigenous territories a handful of times. The decision to build upon this land has caused backlash from the community and the residents of this land alike. Many question who should make the decision, or if continuing the development of projects that hinder climate change would generate more social conflict that leads into a temporary or permanent standstill.[25]

Politics

Office in Guatemala has not been able to gain the trust of the public because of their lack of transparency regarding the climate issues. Specifically, the refusal to implement adaptable and disaster prepared policies that would lessen the worry of their citizens, as survey research by World Bank has indicated that that a large portion of the population is exposed to multiple climate disasters.[10]

International cooperation

Guatemala has joined the V20, a group of 48 developing economies working together with development banks towards climate resilience and 100% renewable energy.[26]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Guatemala | Global Climate Change". Climate Links. USAID. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  2. ^ "Guatemala". Research Program on Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security. 2015-11-27. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  3. ^ a b "Changing climate forces desperate Guatemalans to migrate". National Geographic. 2018-10-23. Archived from the original on October 31, 2018. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  4. ^ a b c Walsh, Conor. "Conor Walsh: Immigration and climate change in Central America". Arizona Daily Star. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  5. ^ a b c d Blitzer, Jonathan; Lima, Mauricio (2019-04-03). "How Climate Change Is Fuelling the U.S. Border Crisis". The New Yorker. ISSN 0028-792X. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  6. ^ a b c Shapiro, Ari; Blitzer, Jonathan (April 10, 2019). "Climate Change Is Forcing Farmers In Guatemala To Leave Their Land For The U.S." NPR. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  7. ^ a b c Padgett, Tim (Apr 8, 2019). "Guatemalan Climate Change Refugees Pouring Over U.S. Border – And Into South Florida". WLRN. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  8. ^ a b c Moran-Taylor, Michelle J. "Migration, Livelihoods & Climate Change in the Cuchumatán Highlands of Guatemala". www.focusongeography.org. Retrieved 2026-02-23.
  9. ^ a b Salim, Kasem U.; Álvarez, Francisco S.; Chan-Golston, Alec M.; Naughton, Colleen C.; Cisneros, Ricardo; Joyce, Andrea (2024-08-01). "Socioeconomic and environmental factors associated with dengue fever incidence in Guatemala: Rising temperatures increase dengue risk". PLOS ONE. 19 (8) e0308271. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0308271. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 11293734. PMID 39088578.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  10. ^ a b Feoli, Ludovico; Arce, Moisés; Maboudi, Tofigh; Eisenstadt, Todd; Girón, Felipe (2025). "The correlates of climate change concern in Guatemala". Climate Risk Management. 50 100747. doi:10.1016/j.crm.2025.100747. ISSN 2212-0963.
  11. ^ "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Factsheet: Guatemala | Global Climate Change". Climate Links. USAID. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  12. ^ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.
  13. ^ Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
  14. ^ Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
  15. ^ Moloney, Anastasia (2019-05-04). "The poorest in Guatemala bear brunt of climate change, research says". Reuters. Retrieved 2019-05-04.
  16. ^ "Meet the giant Guatemalan winged-leaf-cutter ant: Zompopo". AntiguaDailyPhoto.Com. 2014-05-18. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  17. ^ "Zompopos de Mayo Season in Guatemala 2019". Rove.me. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  18. ^ a b Castellanos, Edwin (2016-03-07). "Climate Change in Guatemala". EntreMundos. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  19. ^ Montes, Juan; Pérez, Santiago (2019-04-05). "Mexico Struggles to Contain Surge in Central American Migrants". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  20. ^ "Erratic weather patterns in the Central American Dry Corridor leave 1.4 million people in urgent need of food assistance". Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations . 25 April 2019. Archived from the original on 2021-05-29. Retrieved 2019-05-04.
  21. ^ "'We're just trying to adapt': Coffee farmers face down climate change". www.conservation.org. Retrieved 2025-07-18.
  22. ^ Saunders, Caroline (2025-04-21). "What Does Climate Change Mean for Cardamom?". Bluedot Living. Retrieved 2025-07-18.
  23. ^ Rivera, Paris (2023-11-28). "Climate change projections in Guatemala: temperature and precipitation changes according to CMIP6 models". Modeling Earth Systems and Environment. 10 (2): 2031–2049. doi:10.1007/s40808-023-01881-5. ISSN 2363-6203.
  24. ^ Bunch, Will (April 25, 2019). "Climate denier Trump can't handle the truth about why Central Americans flock to U.S." Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved 2019-05-07.
  25. ^ a b c Carmona, Rosario; Carril, Francisca; Yon, Rocío (2023). "The Recognition of Indigenous Peoples in Latin American Climate Governance: A Review of Nationally Determined Contributions". Weather, Climate, and Society. 15 (1): 195–210. doi:10.1175/wcas-d-22-0059.1. ISSN 1948-8327.
  26. ^ Rowling, Megan (2019-04-12). "Shunned by investors, poorer nations seek to climate-proof growth". Reuters. Retrieved 2019-05-04.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is available under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 unless otherwise noted. Additional terms may apply for the media files.