Climate change and crime

Research shows several connections between climate change and crime. Some studies indicate an increase in crime rates, especially violent crimes while others show the evidence is mixed, finding weak or inconsistent correlations.[1] Researchers focus on several factors that might influence rime rates like temperature volatility, seasonal variations, and local infrastructure.[1][2][3][4] Activities and legislation that allow for environmental crimes to happen, fuel climate change, further impacting crime patterns.[5]

Dynamics

There are various theories to explain the relationship between rising temperatures and crime rates.

Temperature-aggression theory

The temperature-aggression theory, also known as the biological theory, claims higher temperatures can lead to increased levels of stress in individuals, potentially resulting in aggressive behaviors.[6] As temperatures rise, people may become more prone to frustration and anger, which could contribute to an increase in violent crimes such as assaults and homicides.[5][6] Other studies have explored this concept, examining whether heat-induced aggression correlates with higher rates of violent crime.[3][5] Temperature aggression theory relies on examining historical data to identify correlations between abnormally high temperatures and increased rates of violent crimes over time.[3] Patterns in crime data across different seasons or during specific weather events can indicate whether violent crime rates increase during hotter periods.[3] Other variables - time of day, location, and demographics can also be influences.[3][7]

Routine activity theory

The routine activity theory states that crime is more likely to occur when three conditions are met: a motivated offender, a suitable target, and a lack of capable guardianship.[8][9] Warmer weather encourages outdoor activities and social interactions. This creates opportunities for motivated offenders to find suitable targets where people leave goods or property unattended.[1][2] The routine activity theory does not imply that higher temperatures directly cause crime, but rather it underscores that environmental factors, affect human behavior to create conditions conducive to criminal activity.[10]

Temperature changes

Several studies have examined the relationship between temperature and crime.

  • The "climate change-temperature-crime hypothesis" across fifteen U.S. cities over a fourteen year period found that most correlations between temperature and crime were insignificant, which the researchers said suggested that other social, economic, or environmental factors might be more influential.[1]
  • One study examined the relationship between temperature and precipitation on crime in St. Louis, Missouri from 1990 to 2009, concluding that increased temperature anomalies lead to an increase in monthly crime rates. There was also correlation among violent crimes, like aggravated assaults, higher temperatures, and a shorter rainy season. Although this connection was mild, they found a stronger relationship between the temperature anomalies during El Nino/La Nina cycles and conflict.[7]
  • Another study examined annual temperatures and crime rates in the U.S., finding a correlation with specific crime types, such as assault and robbery. Others, like murder, showed no significant relationship.[11]
  • In 2021 Trujillo and Howley published a study that found higher temperatures yielded an increased in interpersonal violence, while higher humidity and precipitation were linked to decreased violence in Barranquilla, Colombia. The study supported the general aggression model and concluded that weather factors were important in urban areas.[12]

Resource scarcity

Climate change is said to increase strain by exposing individuals to a range of stressors conducive to crime.[13] These stressors include extreme weather events, food and freshwater shortages, habitat changes, and forced migration.[13] Robert Agnew’s model suggests that climate change will likely become a significant driver of crime due to its layered effects on society like unpredictability, reduced social control, weakened social support, and increased opportunities for crime.[13]

One study investigated the effects of rainfall fluctuations on dowry-related deaths in India.[14] Studies concluded that a one standard deviation decrease in annual rainfall from the local mean is associated with a 7.8% increase in reported dowry deaths. Wet shocks, periods of excessive rainfall, reportedly have no significant impact on dowry deaths. The study also found a deficit in rainfall is associated with a 32% increase in domestic violence incidents. This may indicate a possible connection between economic stress due to poor agricultural yields during droughts and higher crime rates, particularly domestic abuse and dowry-related violence. Dry periods correlate with domestic violence and kidnapping/abduction cases in the study, but they do not affect burglary and robbery rates according to the study in a significant way.[14]

A different perspective on resource scarcity and crime at a larger scale looks at climate change litigation to avoid conflicts and larger atrocities.[15] Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria's claims that successful litigation can address environmental and economic stresses.[15] Similarly employing sanctions for criminal activities contributing to climate change as well as increasing accountability for environmental wrongdoing could help.[5]

Environmental crimes

Environmental crimes like illegal waste dumping, deforestation, and emissions accelerate climate change.[16] Research points to rising temperatures and natural disasters as being associated with a higher occurrence of violent crimes.[5] This association could be due to several factors: natural disasters leading to increased social disruption, economic instability, and resource scarcity.[5] The environmental degradation left in the wake could push vulnerable communities into poverty, instability, contribute to conditions that foster violent crime.[5]

One policy strategy is advocacy and education. Organizations like Greenpeace and events like Earth Day work to promote sustainability and educate people about climate change.[5]

Geography

Geographic characteristics can influence crime patterns.[11][17] Factors like local climate, urbanization, infrastructure, and socioeconomic conditions can dictate how weather-related changes affect crime.[17][18]

One study from North Bay, Ontario, a small town with a population around 50,000, showed temperature influenced the distribution of thefts and assaults. Break and enters were influenced by calendar events.[17]

References

  1. ^ a b c d Lynch, Michael J.; Stretesky, Paul B.; Long, Michael A.; Barrett, Kimberly L. (2020-11-05). "The Climate Change-Temperature-Crime Hypothesis: Evidence from a Sample of 15 Large US Cities, 2002 to 2015". International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 66 (4): 430–450. doi:10.1177/0306624x20969934. PMID 33153330.
  2. ^ a b Thomas, Christopher; Wolff, Kevin T. (July 2023). "Weird winter weather in the Anthropocene: How volatile temperatures shape violent crime". Journal of Criminal Justice. 87 102090. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.102090.
  3. ^ a b c d e Cruz, Erik; D’Alessio, Stewart J.; Stolzenberg, Lisa (2020-06-01). "The Effect of Maximum Daily Temperature on Outdoor Violence". Crime & Delinquency. 69 (6–7): 1161–1182. doi:10.1177/0011128720926119.
  4. ^ Linning, Shannon J.; Andresen, Martin A.; Brantingham, Paul J. (2016-03-17). "Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates". International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 61 (16): 1866–1891. doi:10.1177/0306624x16632259. hdl:10072/409897. PMID 26987973.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h Pellegrino, Nicolette (2018-12-11). "A Gap in Causation? Punishing Polluters for Contributing to Climate Change & Increasing Violent Crime". Pace Environmental Law Review. 35 (2): 375. doi:10.58948/0738-6206.1819.
  6. ^ a b Mahendran, Rahini; Xu, Rongbin; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming (September 2021). "Interpersonal violence associated with hot weather". The Lancet Planetary Health. 5 (9): e571–e572. doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00210-2. PMID 34508676.
  7. ^ a b Mares, Dennis (2013-01-16). "Climate change and crime: monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies and crime rates in St. Louis, MO 1990–2009" (PDF). Crime, Law and Social Change. 59 (2): 185–208. doi:10.1007/s10611-013-9411-8.
  8. ^ Renzetti, Claire M. (2008). "Criminal Behavior, Theories of". Encyclopedia of Violence, Peace, & Conflict. pp. 488–498. doi:10.1016/B978-012373985-8.00042-8. ISBN 978-0-12-373985-8.
  9. ^ Lambert, Richard D. (2017-10-23). Clarke, Ronald V.; Felson, Marcus (eds.). Routine Activity and Rational Choice: Advances in Criminological Theory (1 ed.). Routledge. doi:10.4324/9781315128788. ISBN 978-1-315-12878-8.
  10. ^ Thomas, Christopher; Jeong, Jinuk; Wolff, Kevin T (2025-08-24). "Testing Routine Activity Theory: Behavioural Pathways Linking Temperature to Crime". The British Journal of Criminology. 65 (4): 859–877. doi:10.1093/bjc/azae091. ISSN 0007-0955.
  11. ^ a b Rotton, James; Cohn, Ellen G. (November 2003). "Global Warming and U.S. Crime Rates: An Application of Routine Activity Theory". Environment and Behavior. 35 (6): 802–825. doi:10.1177/0013916503255565. ISSN 0013-9165.
  12. ^ Trujillo, Juan C.; Howley, Peter (January 2021). "The Effect of Weather on Crime in a Torrid Urban Zone". Environment and Behavior. 53 (1): 69–90. doi:10.1177/0013916519878213. ISSN 0013-9165.
  13. ^ a b c Agnew, Robert (2012). "Dire forecast: A theoretical model of the impact of climate change on crime". Theoretical Criminology. 16 (1): 21–42. doi:10.1177/1362480611416843.
  14. ^ a b Sekhri, Sheetal; Storeygard, Adam (2014-11-01). "Dowry deaths: Response to weather variability in India". Journal of Development Economics. Special Issue: Imbalances in Economic Development. 111: 212–223. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.09.001. PMC 4224306. PMID 25386044.
  15. ^ a b Breitwieser-Faria, Yvonne (2023-11-06). "The Indirect Impacts of Climate Change Litigation: Its Potential to Prevent Conflict and Atrocity Crimes Elsewhere". The University of Queensland Law Journal. 42 (3). doi:10.38127/uqlj.v42i3.8437.
  16. ^ "Environmental Crime". Europol. Retrieved 2024-05-07.
  17. ^ a b c Castle, Ysabel; Kovacs, John (2023-01-01). "Sizing up Crime and Weather Relationships in a Small Northern City". Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice. 65 (1): 60–79. doi:10.3138/cjccj.2022-0037.
  18. ^ Teron, Lemir (October 2023). "Inequality, Urban Heat Islands, and Crime" (PDF). Rockefeller Institute of Government. Retrieved 2025-07-30.
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