Canada–United States relations regarding Alberta separatism

The Albertan independentist crisis refers to the diplomatic fallout from contacts made between the United States Trump administration and the Alberta Prosperity Project beginning in April 2025 and continuing in the following year. Canada, upon discovering these meetings, called them a violation of its sovereignty and foreign interference from the US. The Trump administration responded by stating that the US regularly meets with civil society groups as part of routine engagement and that the meetings did not represent official support for Albertan separatism.

The Alberta Prosperity Project was created in 2021,^[1] and had its very first meeting in May 2021 in Nisku, Alberta.^[2] They view the Canadian federal model as a failure and seek to have an official referendum on Alberta's independence.^[2] The movement had its first official acknowledgment from Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta since 2022, who stated that the movement should be taken "really seriously" by Justin Trudeau and that the movement could possibly manage to pressure the federal government into a referendum if they had grown in a substantial manner.^[2][3]

The very first meeting between U.S. officials and members of the APP took place in April 2025, with Jeff Rath, the head of the APP's legal counsel team, having been part of the convoy to Washington D.C.^[4] Since then, there have been three reported meetings since April 2025 between the APP and the U.S. State Department.^[4][5]

During this time, the Alberta Legislature passed Bill 14 which undid the judicial review of previously brought up referendum initiatives by the APP.^[6] The APP slightly altered the referendum question to comply with the Clarity Act, and following this, on December 22, 2025, Elections Alberta approved the application of the petition, and announced on January 2, 2026, that signatures could be collected from January 3, 2026, until May 2, 2026. For the petition to be successful, 177,732 signatures will be required. The organization intends to hold a referendum in October 2026.^[7][8]

In January 2026 Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary described Albertans as "very independent people" and stated that Albertans were natural allies for the United States of America.^[4] In a similar way, Steve Bannon, also supported Albertan independence, stating that if it occurred the USA would recognize it.^[9] This drew the attention of various Canadian newspaper, which began to speculate possible US support for Albertan independence.^[10][11]

Another joint meeting with the US Treasury and the US State Department had been planned in February 2026 for a half trillion credit mechanism upon achieving independence.^[4] Jeff Rath stated that there were allegedly talks of an US$500-billion line of credit to push towards Albertan independence, but clearly stated that such ideas were merely being explored.^[12]

The talks were discovered in January 2026.^[4]

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that he expected the U.S. administration to respect Canadian sovereignty when asked about the event.^[13] Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta, stated that she believed that talks about independence should be "confined" between Albertans and Canada, criticizing U.S. involvement, however, prompted not to "demonize" the separatists.^[14] A spokesperson for Smith stated that the majority of Albertans had no interest in becoming independent.^[15] Thomas Lukaszuk called the event a national security crisis.^[16]

Premiers from different provinces of Canada spoke against the talks, including Ontario's premier Doug Ford and British Columbia's premier David Eby who called the whole situation "treason".^[17][18]

First nations such as the Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation, the Blackfoot Confederacy and the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation called for Albertans to oppose the independence referendum petition due to the alleged risk of Alberta turning into the 51st state of the US in its aftermath, and also noted that Alberta is ill-equipped in case of foreign interference.^[19]

Andy Ogles commented that Albertans would allegedly prefer to join the United States of America rather than stay within Canada,^[20] something that Jeff Rath, however, stated was not considered viable or possible during the talks, and that instead an independent Alberta would have zero tariffs with the US and a single market.^[12][10] The US stated that the meetings were regular meetings that the US pursues with various civic society actors over the years and that, allegedly no official commitment to separatism had been pursued as of yet.^[4][21]

Le Monde noted that the focus on Canada in the latest days by the Second Trump Administration could be tied to "retreats on Greenland" and that the administration could be aiming to destabilize Canada for personal gains.^[22] Other analysts also agree upon the aim to create a "split" in Canada.^[23]

A Research Corporation survey in Alberta noted how 31% of respondents would be willing to support the idea of Albertan independence, but that the number lowered 24% when the question was to join the US.^[24] After Scott Bessent's comments, CBC News published analysis suggesting greater US involvement in Albertan separatism could reduce its popularity.^[10]

The Calgary Herald also published an article on the possibility of alleged US support for Albertan independence after Bessent's statements, highlighting the possibility to profit off of Alberta's natural resources, especially oil, and proposals of pipelines from Alberta to the US.^[11]

The National Interest noted that the 500-billion-dollars deal would likely not come "without strings attached" and compared the situation to the 1800s transfer of California and Texas from Mexico, after which citizens voted to join the US.^[25]