2026 Nepean state by-election

2026 Nepean state by-election
2 May 2026[1]
Electoral district of Nepean
in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
Incumbent MP

Sam Groth
Liberal



A by-election for the electoral district of Nepean in the Victorian Legislative Assembly will be held on 2 May 2026, following the resignation of Liberal Party MP and deputy leader Sam Groth.

Background

Often a safe Liberal seat, the district of Nepean, formerly known as Dromana, was won by Labor for only the second time in its history[a] at the 2018 Victorian state election, with Chris Brayne elected as the MP for the seat, which covers the southernmost end of the Mornington Peninsula from Safety Beach to Portsea.[3][2] Following a boundary redistribution, Nepean had a notional margin of 0.7 percent for Labor.[3] Liberal candidate Sam Groth succeeded at unseating Brayne at the 2022 Victorian state election, with a swing of 7.1 percent towards the Liberal Party.[2] Groth was a former tennis player who had become a sports commentator, and had lived in Rye for a number of years at the time of the 2022 election.[3]

Groth announced that he would not recontest the seat of Nepean on 5 January 2026, referring to "public pressure placed on my family", some of which he stated had come internally from within the Liberal Party.[4] Groth had previously sued The Herald and Weekly Times for defamation, over claims that he had started a relationship with his wife while she was underage.[4] The Herald Sun apologised for these claims in late 2025, and lawyers for both Groth and his wife have stated the claims were incorrect.[4] On 4 February, the office of Victorian Liberal Party leader Jess Wilson confirmed that Groth intended to resign imminently from the Victorian Parliament, which would trigger a by-election in the electoral district of Nepean.[5] Groth resigned on 13 February 2026.[6][7]

The early by-election is estimated to cost taxpayers approximately $2 million.[8]

2022

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly) § Nepean.[edit]
2022 Victorian state election: Nepean[9][10][11][12]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Sam Groth 19,614 48.1 +4.0
Labor Chris Brayne 13,308 32.6 −5.3
Greens Esther Gleixner 3,576 8.8 −2.2
Freedom Hank Leine 980 2.4 +2.4
Animal Justice Pamela Engelander 720 1.8 +1.8
Family First Janny Dijkman 638 1.6 +1.6
Companions and Pets Jay Miller 526 1.3 +1.3
Independent Elizabeth Woolcock 495 1.2 +1.2
Independent Charelle Ainslie 449 1.1 +1.1
Democratic Labour Cynthia Skruzny 369 0.9 +0.9
Independent Steve Anger 91 0.2 +0.2
Total formal votes 40,766 93.7 −0.9
Informal votes 2,753 6.3 +0.9
Turnout 43,519 88.9 +3.9
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal Sam Groth 22,986 56.4 +7.1
Labor Chris Brayne 17,780 43.6 −7.1
Liberal gain from Labor Swing +7.1

Key dates

Sam Groth resigned from Parliament on 13 February 2026.[6][7] According to the Victorian Electoral Commission, this is the intended timeline for the by-election:[7]

  • Friday 13 March − Speaker issues writ
  • Monday 16 March, 9am − Candidate nominations and postal vote applications open
  • Friday 20 March, 8pm − Electoral roll closes
  • Friday 10 April − Candidate nominations close
  • Wednesday 22 April − Early voting begins
  • Saturday 2 May − Election day

Candidates

Candidates in the Nepean by-election. From top-to-bottom, then left-to-right: Anthony Marsh (Liberal), Sianan Healy (Greens), and Tracee Hutchison (Independent).
Party Candidate Background
  Liberal Anthony Marsh Mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire[13]
  One Nation Darren Hercus Small business owner[14]
  Greens Sianan Healy Women's health researcher[15]
  Independent Tracee Hutchison Broadcaster and writer[15]
  Libertarian Peter Angelico Former Liberal Party member[16]

According to both The Guardian, The Age, and Mornington Peninsula News Group, five candidates nominated for Liberal Party preselection. These were Anthony Marsh, David Burgess, Briony Camp, Nathan Conroy, and Bree Ambry.[17][18][16] Marsh, the mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire was given special permission by the Liberal Party state executive to stand as a candidate, as he had only joined the party on 10 February 2026.[17] Both Burgess, Camp, and Conroy had previously unsuccessfully stood for the Liberal Party in general elections — Burgess for the Legislative Council, Camp in the district of Hastings, and Conroy twice for the federal division of Dunkley.[16] Ambry is a project manager with Nepean Health.[16] The Liberal candidate for the by-election was decided by a combined vote of the eighteen members of the state executive and six members of the branch executive in Nepean, rather than by a vote of rank-and-file branch members.[17] Marsh was ultimately the successful candidate, being preselected on 24 February 2026.[19][13] According to Mornington Peninsula News Group, in the first round of preselection voting, Marsh received ten votes, Camp four, Conroy three, and Burgess two.[13]

The Labor Party will not stand a candidate in the by-election.[20]

Darren Hercus, a small business owner, was announced as the One Nation candidate on 1 March.[14]

Sianan Healy, a women's health researcher, is the Greens candidate for Nepean.[15]

Peter Angelico, a former member of the Liberal Party, is the endorsed Libertarian Party candidate for Nepean.[16]

Tracee Hutchison, a broadcaster, writer and community advocate from Rosebud, announced her candidacy for the by-election on 8 March as an independent candidate.[21] Hutchison is endorsed by the group Independents for Mornington Peninsula.[15] Hutchison has opposed cuts by the Mornington Peninsula shire to programs relating to the arts, cultural heritage, and First Nations people, as well as the council's rescinding of a climate emergency declaration.[22]

Notes

  1. ^ The electoral district of Nepean was first contested at the 2002 Victorian state election, but had existed in much the same form as the electoral district of Dromana since 1967. Labor had won Dromana once in its history — at the 1982 state election, when the government of John Cain was first elected.[2]

References

  1. ^ Deery, Shannon (17 February 2026). "Liberal Party faces test in Nepean by-election as candidates emerge". Herald Sun. Retrieved 17 February 2026.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  2. ^ a b c Green, Antony (26 November 2022). "Nepean (Key Seat) - VIC Election 2022". ABC News. Archived from the original on 19 February 2026. Retrieved 19 February 2026.
  3. ^ a b c Cowie, Tom (20 November 2022). "The accidental MP and former tennis pro contesting one of Victoria's tightest seats". The Age. Archived from the original on 19 February 2026. Retrieved 19 February 2026.
  4. ^ a b c Kolovos, Benita (5 January 2026). "Sam Groth to quit Victorian politics after defamation battle with News Corp and internal party divisions". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 19 February 2026. Retrieved 19 February 2026.
  5. ^ Willingham, Richard (4 February 2026). "Former deputy Liberal leader Sam Groth quits Victorian parliament, triggering Nepean by-election". ABC News. Archived from the original on 4 February 2026. Retrieved 19 February 2026.
  6. ^ a b Maree Edwards, Speaker (17 February 2026). "Member for Nepean - Resignation" (PDF). Parliamentary Debates (Hansard). Victoria: Legislative Assembly. p. 1. Archived (PDF) from the original on 19 February 2026. I wish to announce that on 13 February 2026 I received the resignation of the member for Nepean. I will issue a writ for a by-election in due course.
  7. ^ a b c "Nepean District by-election". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 20 February 2026. Retrieved 20 February 2026.
  8. ^ Deery, Shannon (4 February 2026). "Liberal MP Sam Groth to resign from politics next week, forcing Nepean by-election". Herald Sun. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
  9. ^ Green, Antony (11 January 2023). "VIC22 – 2-Party Preferred Results and Swings by District". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 28 January 2023.
  10. ^ VIC 2021 Final Redistribution, ABC News. [Retrieved 1 January 2023.
  11. ^ Nepean District results, Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 1 December 2022.
  12. ^ Full preference distributions – 2022 State election, Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 17 June 2023.
  13. ^ a b c McCullough, Cameron (24 February 2026). "Marsh wins Liberal preselection battle". Mornington Peninsula News Group. Retrieved 24 February 2026.
  14. ^ a b Durkin, Patrick (1 March 2026). "Pauline Hanson's One Nation launches assault on Victorian election". The Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 1 March 2026. Retrieved 1 March 2026.
  15. ^ a b c d Smethurst, Annika (9 March 2026). "The former triple j host targeting major-party discontent in state byelection". The Age. Archived from the original on 10 March 2026. Retrieved 10 March 2026.
  16. ^ a b c d e McCullough, Cameron (18 February 2026). "By-election date set as timelines crunch for potential candidates". Mornington Peninsula News Group. Archived from the original on 18 February 2026. Retrieved 19 February 2026.
  17. ^ a b c Kolovos, Benita (16 February 2026). "Liberal infighting erupts in Nepean as executive sidelines branch to back mayor dubbed 'Sam Groth 2.0'". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 16 February 2026. Retrieved 16 February 2026.
  18. ^ Dexter, Rachael (17 February 2026). "'I won't disappear to run for parliament': Formerly independent mayor likely Liberal candidate for Groth's seat". The Age. Archived from the original on 19 February 2026. Retrieved 19 February 2026.
  19. ^ Scicluna, Jay (24 February 2026). "Mornington Peninsula News Mayor Anthony Marsh Selected as Liberal Candidate for Nepean By-election". Somerville Times & Peninsula Local. Retrieved 24 February 2026.
  20. ^ "Liberals launch Nepean candidate's campaign ahead of by-election challenge from One Nation". ABC News. 28 February 2026. Archived from the original on 1 March 2026. Retrieved 1 March 2026. Labor has confirmed it will not run a candidate at the by-election, leaving a resurgent One Nation as the likely biggest challenger to the Liberals.
  21. ^ Scicluna, Jay (8 March 2026). "Tracee Hutchison Announced Independent Bid for Nepean By‑Election". Somerville Times & Peninsula Local. Retrieved 8 March 2026.
  22. ^ McCullough, Cameron (10 March 2026). "Independents and Greens name candidates for Nepean by-election". Mornington Peninsula News Group. Archived from the original on 11 March 2026. Retrieved 11 March 2026.
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