2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election

2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election

November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Kevin Stitt Drew Edmondson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 644,579 500,973
Percentage 54.33% 42.23%

Stitt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
Edmondson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
     Tie      No votes

Governor before election

Mary Fallin
Republican

Elected Governor

Kevin Stitt
Republican

The 2018 Oklahoma gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Oklahoma. Incumbent Republican governor Mary Fallin was term-limited, and was prohibited by the Constitution of Oklahoma from seeking a third term. Republican Businessman Kevin Stitt was elected with 54.3% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Oklahoma attorney general Drew Edmondson.

Primary elections occurred on June 26, 2018. Edmondson won the Democratic nomination outright. Stitt, however, faced a runoff election against former Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett. On August 28, 2018, Stitt won the Republican primary runoff and became the Republican nominee for the office. The Libertarian Party also held a primary, which advanced to a runoff, with Chris Powell, a former chair of the Libertarian Party of Oklahoma, winning the nomination.[1][2]

Stitt won the general election with 54.33% of the vote. This was the first time ever that the Libertarian Party was on the ballot in a gubernatorial election in Oklahoma,[3] and the only time since 1986 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected Governor of Oklahoma.

A member of the Cherokee Nation, Stitt became the first tribally enrolled Native American to serve as governor of a U.S. state.[4] Despite his victory, Stitt lost four counties that voted Republican in the 2016 U.S. presidential race: Cherokee, Cleveland, Muskogee, and Oklahoma.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary runoff

Eliminated in the initial primary

Endorsements

Mick Cornett
Mayors
Individuals
  • Gary Richardson, former Eastern District Attorney and candidate for governor in 2002 & 2018[31]
Organizations
  • Oklahomans for Public Education[32]
Newspapers
Todd Lamb
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Gary Richardson
Individuals
Organizations
  • The Edmond Republican GROUP[42]
  • Sooner Politics News[43]
Kevin Stitt
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
Mayors
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

First round

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mick
Cornett
Dan
Fisher
Gary
Jones
Todd
Lamb
Gary
Richardson
Kevin
Stitt
Other Undecided
Right Strategy Group (R)[61] June 6–7, 2018 435 ± 4.5% 21% 4% 2% 20% 6% 20% 28%
Oklahoma Strategic Solutions (R-Richardson)[62] May 22–23, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 13% 4% 3% 20% 13% 17% 30%
Right Strategy Group (R)[63] May 22–23, 2018 409 ± 5.0% 20% 4% 3% 20% 4% 21% 29%
SoonerPoll[64] May 15–23, 2018 319 20% 3% 4% 23% 3% 14% 1% 31%
Magellan Strategies[65] April 18–19 and 22, 2018 644 ± 3.9% 17% 5% 5% 19% 12% 19% 23%
SoonerPoll[66] March 14–22, 2018 294 22% 4% 3% 21% 7% 8% 36%
Oklahoma Strategic Solutions (R-Richardson)[67] March 9, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 15% 2% 3% 14% 10% 8% 48%
SoonerPoll[68] January 4–9, 2018 213 24% 4% 3% 18% 9% 3% 39%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jim
Bridenstine
Todd
Lamb
Scott
Pruitt
Undecided
SoonerPoll[69] September 1–15, 2017 403 ± 4.9% 19% 33% 16% 32%

Results

Republican primary results[70]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mick Cornett 132,806 29.3
Republican Kevin Stitt 110,479 24.4
Republican Todd Lamb 107,985 23.9
Republican Dan Fisher 35,818 7.9
Republican Gary Jones 25,243 5.6
Republican Gary Richardson 18,185 4.0
Republican Blake Stephens 12,211 2.7
Republican Christopher Barnett 5,240 1.2
Republican Barry Gowdy 2,347 0.5
Republican Eric Foutch 2,292 0.5
Total votes 452,606 100.0

Runoff

Campaign finance

Pre-runoff report due August 20, 2018
Candidate Total
raised
Total
spent
Total
cash-on-hand
Kevin Stitt $6,542,863.91 $6,018,662.13 $368,557.72
Mick Cornett $3,242,795.74 $2,826,305.70 $336,691.50

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mick
Cornett
Kevin
Stitt
Undecided
Remington (R)[71] August 1–2, 2018 1,757 ± 2.3% 37% 47% 16%
Right Strategy Group (R)[72] August 1–2, 2018 385 ± 5.0% 33% 41% 26%
SoonerPoll[73] July 18–20, 2018 483 ± 4.5% 37% 37% 25%

Results

Republican primary runoff results[74]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Stitt 164,892 54.56
Republican Mick Cornett 137,316 45.44
Total votes 302,208 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Drew Edmondson
Governors
Mayors
State representatives
Newspapers
Individuals
  • Norman Jay Brown, auto mechanic and candidate for governor of Oklahoma in 2018[90]
Organizations
  • Oklahoma Education Association[91]
  • Oklahoma Public Employees Association[92]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Drew
Edmondson
Connie
Johnson
Undecided
Right Strategy Group (R)[61] June 6–7, 2018 45% 11% 45%
SoonerPoll[64] May 15–23, 2018 297 ± 5.7% 44% 14% 43%
Hypothetical polling

with Norman Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Norman
Brown
Drew
Edmondson
Connie
Johnson
Undecided
SoonerPoll[66] March 14–22, 2018 264 4% 34% 13% 50%
SoonerPoll[93] January 4–9, 2018 162 4% 40% 21% 35%

Results

Democratic primary results[70]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Drew Edmondson 242,764 61.4
Democratic Connie Johnson 152,730 38.6
Total votes 395,494 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary runoff

  • Rex L. Lawhorn, former chair of the Oklahoma Americans Elect Party and Oklahoma State Director for Our America Initiative[95]

Eliminated in the initial primary

Endorsements

Chris Powell
Newspapers
Individuals
  • Jimmy Cook, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party
  • Steve Galpin, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party
  • Tim Gillespie, founder of the Oklahoma 2nd Amendment Association
  • Frank Grove, president, Drug Reform Network of Oklahoma[98]
  • Tina Kelly, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party
  • Tom Laurent, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party, former member of the Libertarian National Committee
  • Robert T. Murphy, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party, former member of the Libertarian National Committee, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Angela O'Dell, former chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party[99]
  • D. Frank Robinson, first chair of the Oklahoma Libertarian Party, founding member of the national Libertarian Party
  • Norma Sapp, director, Oklahoma chapter of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws[98]
  • Ken Young, chair of Oklahoma State Board of Cosmetology

First round

Results

Libertarian primary results[70]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Chris Powell 1,740 48.9
Libertarian Rex L. Lawhorn 1,154 32.4
Libertarian Joe Exotic 664 18.7
Total votes 3,558 100%

Runoff

Campaign finance

Pre-runoff report due August 20, 2018
Candidate Total
raised
Total
spent
Total
cash-on-hand
Chris Powell $10,142.88 $6,991.02 $3,017.51
Rex L. Lawhorn $4,575.00 $5,286.87 ($736.87)

Results

Libertarian primary runoff results[74]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Chris Powell 547 59.1
Libertarian Rex L. Lawhorn 379 40.9
Total votes 926 100.0

General election

Oklahoma determines ballot order by a random drawing which took place for this election cycle on July 12, resulting in the Libertarian Party being listed first, Republicans second, and Democrats third.[100]

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[101] Tossup October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[102] Lean R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[103] Likely R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[104] Lean R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[105] Lean R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[106] Lean R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[107] Lean R November 5, 2018
Fox News[108][a] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[109] Lean R November 5, 2018
Governing[110] Lean R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Graphical summary

%support01020304050604/11/20188/7/201811/24/2018StittEdmondsonPowellUndecidedOpinion polling for the 2018 Oklahoma gubern...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kevin
Stitt (R)
Drew
Edmondson (D)
Chris
Powell (L)
Undecided
SoonerPoll[111] October 31 – November 3, 2018 338 ± 5.3% 47% 44% 3% 6%
SoonerPoll[112] October 23–25, 2018 447 ± 4.6% 46% 42% 4% 8%
Magellan Strategies (R)[113] October 22–23, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 51% 44% 1% 4%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R)[114] September 25–29, 2018 500 ± 4.3% 46% 40% 4%
Right Strategy Group (R)[115] September 25–26, 2018 1,058 ± 3.0% 47% 43% 2% 8%
SoonerPoll[116] September 5–10, 2018 407 ± 4.9% 47% 44% 3% 6%
Right Strategy Group (R)[72] August 1–2, 2018 737 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17%
SoonerPoll[117] July 18–20, 2018 404 ± 4.9% 39% 40% 21%
SoonerPoll[118] May 15–23, 2018 622 ± 3.9% 25% 32% 43%
Hypothetical polling

with Mick Cornett

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mick
Cornett (R)
Drew
Edmondson (D)
Undecided
Right Strategy Group (R)[72] August 1–2, 2018 737 ± 4.0% 39% 39% 21%
SoonerPoll[117] July 18–20, 2018 404 ± 4.9% 43% 35% 23%
SoonerPoll[118] May 15–23, 2018 622 ± 3.9% 33% 27% 40%

with Todd Lamb

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Todd
Lamb (R)
Drew
Edmondson (D)
Undecided
SoonerPoll[118] May 15–23, 2018 622 ± 3.9% 33% 28% 39%

Results

Oklahoma gubernatorial election, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kevin Stitt 644,579 54.33% −1.47%
Democratic Drew Edmondson 500,973 42.23% +1.22%
Libertarian Chris Powell 40,833 3.44% N/A
Total votes 1,186,385 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By county

Stitt won 73 counties, while Edmondson won four. Stitt won 56 counties with at least 60% of the popular vote, 14 counties with at least 70%, and three counties – Beaver, Cimarron, and Ellis – with upwards of 80%. Stitt had the largest margin of victory in Cimarron with 73.09% more votes than Edmondson's 12.27%, the latter's lowest county performance in the election. The largest county per vote count won by Stitt was Tulsa County, home of Tulsa. Oklahoma County, of which Oklahoma City is county seat, was the only county where Stitt failed to acquire three out of every seven votes.[119]

Edmondson won Muskogee by a single vote, and had an 11.84% margin of victory – his only margin of victory above 10% – in Oklahoma County. Edmondson won his four counties with typically narrower margins than that of Stitt, having missed 50% of the popular vote in Muskogee.[119] Powell never came close to winning any counties, but won his highest percentage of votes in Washita County, with 4.97%[119]

County[119] Kevin Stitt
Republican
Drew Edmondson
Democratic
Chris Powell
Libertarian
Margin Total
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Adair 3,187 61.61% 1,745 33.73% 241 4.66% 1,442 27.88% 5,173
Alfalfa 1,333 74.01% 391 21.71% 77 4.28% 942 52.30% 1,801
Atoka 2,789 69.05% 1,155 28.6% 95 2.35% 1,634 40.46% 4,039
Beaver 1,454 80.82% 272 15.12% 73 4.06% 1,182 65.70% 1,799
Beckham 4,061 71.18% 1,396 24.47% 248 4.35% 2,665 46.71% 5,705
Blaine 1,941 65.73% 889 30.10% 123 4.17% 1,052 35.62% 2,953
Bryan 7,301 64.33% 3,746 33.01% 302 2.66% 3,555 31.32% 11,349
Caddo 4,047 54.97% 3,043 41.33% 272 3.69% 1,004 13.64% 7,362
Canadian 27,410 59.65% 16,744 36.44% 1,797 3.91% 10,666 23.21% 45,951
Carter 9,090 64.91% 4,445 31.74% 469 3.35% 4,645 33.17% 14,004
Cherokee 6,336 45.58% 6,970 50.14% 595 4.28% -634 -4.56% 13,901
Choctaw 2,634 65.28% 1,286 31.87% 115 2.85% 1,348 33.41% 4,035
Cimarron 682 85.36% 98 12.27% 19 2.38% 584 73.09% 799
Cleveland 42,268 45.87% 46,648 50.62% 3,231 3.51% -4,380 -4.75% 92,147
Coal 1,127 61.05% 659 35.70% 60 3.25% 468 25.35% 1,846
Comanche 13,180 49.66% 12,336 46.48% 1,027 3.87% 844 3.18% 26,543
Cotton 1,312 65.44% 598 29.83% 95 4.74% 714 35.61% 2,005
Craig 2,863 60.40% 1,713 36.14% 164 3.46% 1,150 24.26% 4,740
Creek 14,870 65.53% 7,048 31.06% 775 3.42% 7,822 34.47% 22,693
Custer 5,239 63.21% 2,715 33.16% 334 4.03% 2,524 30.45% 8,288
Delaware 8,543 65.21% 4,114 31.40% 444 3.39% 4,429 33.81% 13,101
Dewey 1,404 79.41% 315 17.82% 49 2.77% 1,089 61.60% 1,768
Ellis 1,186 80.30% 236 15.98% 55 3.72% 950 64.32% 1,477
Garfield 11,008 63.36% 5,613 32.31% 754 4.34% 5,395 31.05% 17,375
Garvin 5,140 64.91% 2,510 31.70% 269 3.40% 2,630 33.21% 7,919
Grady 11,173 65.16% 5,281 30.80% 694 4.05% 5,892 34.36% 17,148
Grant 1,250 73.36% 378 22.18% 76 4.46% 872 51.17% 1,704
Greer 946 64.22% 469 31.84% 58 3.94% 477 32.38% 1,473
Harmon 443 59.38% 277 37.13% 26 3.49% 166 22.25% 746
Harper 948 78.35% 214 17.69% 48 3.97% 734 60.66% 1,210
Haskell 2,348 63.44% 1,246 33.67% 107 2.89% 1,102 29.78% 3,701
Hughes 2,323 60.73% 1,336 34.93% 166 4.34% 987 25.80% 3,825
Jackson 4,301 66.31% 1,989 30.67% 196 3.02% 2,312 35.65% 6,486
Jefferson 1,099 70.04% 424 27.02% 46 2.93% 675 43.02% 1,569
Johnston 1,976 65.45% 962 31.86% 81 2.68% 1,014 33.59% 3,019
Kay 7,859 60.51% 4,582 35.28% 548 4.22% 3,277 25.23% 12,989
Kingfisher 3,846 75.23% 1,064 20.81% 202 3.95% 2,782 54.42% 5,112
Kiowa 1,645 60.61% 972 35.81% 97 3.57% 673 24.80% 2,714
Latimer 1,774 58.80% 1,125 37.25% 118 3.91% 649 21.51% 3,017
Le Flore 8,009 62.56% 4,467 34.89% 327 2.55% 3,542 27.67% 12,803
Lincoln 7,323 64.94% 3,418 30.31% 535 4.74% 3,905 34.63% 11,276
Logan 9,847 62.09% 5,371 33.87% 641 4.04% 4,476 28.22% 15,859
Love 1,902 68.69% 808 29.18% 59 2.13% 1,094 39.51% 2,769
Major 2,177 79.28% 470 17.12% 99 3.61% 1,707 62.16% 2,746
Marshall 2,943 66.66% 1,351 30.60% 121 2.74% 1,592 26.06% 4,415
Mayes 7,837 60.63% 4,604 35.62% 486 3.76% 3,233 25.01% 12,927
McClain 9,021 65.35% 4,286 31.05% 497 3.60% 4,735 34.30% 13,804
McCurtain 5,178 68.43% 2,211 29.22% 178 2.35% 2,967 39.21% 7,567
McIntosh 3,612 54.56% 2,785 42.07% 223 3.37% 827 12.49% 6,620
Murray 2,751 62.97% 1,443 33.03% 175 4.01% 1,308 29.94% 4,369
Muskogee 9,515 48.30% 9,516 48.31% 668 3.39% -1 -0.01% 19,699
Noble 2,543 63.83% 1,252 31.43% 189 4.74% 1,291 32.40% 3,984
Nowata 2,319 66.14% 1,016 28.98% 171 4.88% 1,303 37.16% 3,506
Okfuskee 1,752 56.44% 1,241 39.98% 111 3.58% 511 16.46% 3,104
Oklahoma 98,994 42.38% 126,667 54.22% 7,938 3.40% -27,673 -11.85% 233,599
Okmulgee 5,846 52.96% 4,849 43.93% 343 3.11% 997 9.03% 11,043
Osage 8,629 56.20% 6,202 40.39% 524 3.21% 2,427 15.81% 15,355
Ottawa 4,752 55.74% 3,502 41.08% 271 3.18% 1,250 14.66% 8,525
Pawnee 3,076 62.42% 1,645 33.38% 207 4.20% 1,431 29.04% 4,928
Payne 11,193 49.18% 10,650 46.80% 914 4.02% 543 2.39% 22,757
Pittsburg 7,986 59.66% 4,842 36.17% 557 4.16% 3,144 23.49% 13,385
Pontotoc 6,233 52.43% 5,293 44.52% 363 3.05% 940 7.91% 11,889
Pottawatomie 11,996 57.06% 8,093 38.50% 933 4.44% 3,903 18.57% 21,022
Pushmataha 2,102 63.07% 1,106 33.18% 125 3.75% 996 29.88% 3,333
Roger Mills 1,157 77.13% 283 18.87% 60 4.00% 874 58.27% 1,500
Rogers 21,450 64.76% 10,605 32.02% 1,069 3.23% 10,845 32.74% 33,124
Seminole 3,681 55.99% 2,607 39.66% 286 4.35% 1,074 16.34 6,574
Sequoyah 6,695 58.31% 4,480 39.02% 307 2.67% 2,215 19.29% 11,482
Stephens 9,314 67.48% 4,081 29.57% 407 2.95% 5,233 37.91% 13,802
Texas 3,097 74.84% 894 21.60% 147 3.55% 2,203 53.24% 4,138
Tillman 1,315 62.89% 716 34.24% 60 2.87% 599 28.65% 2,091
Tulsa 101,518 50.11% 95,350 47.07% 5,716 2.82% 6,168 3.04% 202,584
Wagoner 16,346 63.00% 8,700 33.53% 901 3.47% 7,646 29.47% 25,947
Washington 11,226 62.96% 6,017 33.74% 588 3.30% 5,209 29.21% 17,831
Washita 2,653 69.72% 963 25.31% 189 4.97% 1,690 44.42% 3,805
Woods 1,929 67.83% 797 28.02% 118 4.15% 1,132 39.80% 2,844
Woodward 4,326 73.35% 1,388 23.53% 184 3.12% 2,938 49.81% 5,898

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Stitt won four of five congressional districts.[120]

District Edmondson Stitt Representative
1st 44% 53% Kevin Hern
2nd 37% 60% Markwayne Mullin
3rd 34% 63% Frank Lucas
4th 43% 54% Tom Cole
5th 53% 44% Steve Russell (115th Congress)
Kendra Horn (116th Congress)

See also

References

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  2. ^ "Pre-Runoff Finance Reports: Governor's race". www.muskogeepolitico.com.
  3. ^ "Three Libertarians competing in party's first Oklahoma gubernatorial primary". NewsOK.com. April 2, 2018.
  4. ^ "Only one state makes history with election of first Native governor". Indianz.com. Retrieved March 18, 2021.
  5. ^ "2018: Kevin Stitt Announces Republican Bid For Governor". July 17, 2017. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  6. ^ "Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett announces plan to run for governor". KFOR.com. May 31, 2017. Retrieved June 1, 2017.
  7. ^ "Christopher Barnett for Governor". chrisforgov.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  8. ^ "Former Rep. Lawmaker Dan Fisher To Run For State Governor". Associated Press. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  9. ^ a b c "Candidate Filings, 2018". www.ok.gov. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  10. ^ Murphy, Sean (May 8, 2017). "Oklahoma Auditor Gary Jones to Run for Governor in 2018". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved May 18, 2017.
  11. ^ "Lt. Governor Todd Lamb files candidacy paperwork for 2018 governor's race". KFOR.com. April 7, 2017. Retrieved June 1, 2017.
  12. ^ Felder, Ben (April 24, 2017). "Richardson announces run for governor, seeks Republican ticket". The Oklahoman. Retrieved April 24, 2017.
  13. ^ "Former Mayor Adams Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
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  16. ^ "Mayor Cathey Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
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  26. ^ "WHAT A SHOCK! Mayor Shockley Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
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  28. ^ "Mayor Thurmond Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
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  30. ^ "Mayor White Endorses MICK!". Mick Cornett for Oklahoma Governor. July 13, 2018. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018.
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  36. ^ "REP. STEVE RUSSELL ENDORSES LAMB FOR GOVERNOR". Todd Lamb for Oklahoma Governor. September 18, 2017. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 9, 2018.
  37. ^ "Todd Lamb Officially Files for Governor; Retired General Tommy Franks Offers Endorsement". Todd Lamb for Oklahoma Governor. April 11, 2018. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 9, 2018.
  38. ^ Casteel, Chris (May 3, 2018). "Donald Trump Jr. talks politics, hunting at fundraiser for Lamb". NewsOK.
  39. ^ "OKAgFund endorses, funds candidates in state elections". Oklahoma Farm Bureau. May 22, 2018.
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Official campaign websites